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One year later into my trading career...........seeking guidance and direction


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One year later into my trading career...........seeking guidance and direction

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  #101 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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budfox View Post
care to explain what you mean? I would be very interested to know.

Thank You.


back in the day, markets were inefficient and dominated by heavy retail participation. pricing was a value oriented phenomena that actually reflected the laws of supply and demand. technical analysis was more effective back then, because markets were more auto-correlated, and retail participation in the markets contributed to the self-fulfilling prophecy that drives ta. historical price patterns were more reliable, and price reacted in predictable ways after this conditionality was presented. if one could identify these repetitive patterns, then determining path dependency was easy. the markets are now dominated by commercials, commodity funds, indexers, etfs and hfts. the financialization of traded instruments has resulted in more cross asset correlations which have stripped individual assets of their uniqueness, and price discovery and risk transference functions.

over the past decade, institutional management of equity portfolios has increased from 54% to 81% and over the same period, “real institutional trading” has declined from 47% of trading volume to 29%. there are far fewer market participants today than just ten years ago, managing much larger portfolios across more asset classes, and using much less trading. the retail trader has all but disappeared, and traditional traders are predominantly competing against professionals and machines in a relatively illiquid market. this perspective is important to realize, because it underscores how markets have changed. given the near extinction of retail participation, and the almost total dominance of professional and algorithmic trading, it is unlikely that the biases and readily "available" cognitive reference points that are the hallmark of the retail trader, still exert their influence on pricing today.

more than ever, the market is predisposed to preying on unsophisticated traders; and there is no shortage of material for the flexions to practice on to refine their skills. the internet is full of trading forums, venting the opinions of naive wannabe traders who don’t know the difference between a stock and a bond, yet live in the delusional world in which they believe they can better the traders who are rigging the game. at the core of their beliefs is the illusion that they can grind out a living i.e., they can overcome trading friction and be consistent enough to collect a steady paycheck from the market, while taking very little risk and very small profits. they continue to believe in the existence of the exploitable edge that is reproducible on a daily or intra-day basis. and, herein lies the biggest and most stultifying misconception about trading -the belief in the existence of alpha and the denial that the grind is gone.

one of the many advantages of being a local trader on the floor of an exchange was that a trader could earn the bid/offer spread as an incentive for providing liquidity. when a local made a trade he could buy-the-bid and sell-the-offer, which meant he was buying below fair value and selling above fair value. in addition to this edge, traders were able to transact business at a cheaper rate than the public, and had first-hand knowledge of market structure and order flow. this enabled them to trade ahead of large orders and "race" the retail stop orders. a member trader did not have to go far in his quest for alpha.

following decimalization and regulatory initiatives aimed at creating competition between trading venues, the equities market fragmented, and liquidity was dispersed across many lit venues and dark pools. this complexity, combined with exchanges becoming electronic and for-profit, created profit opportunities for technologically sophisticated players. high frequency traders (HFTs) now use ultra-high speed connections with trading venues and sophisticated trading algorithms to exploit inefficiencies created by the new market structure, and to identify patterns in 3rd parties’ trading, so that they can use it to their own advantage in much the same way as the floor trader used his proximal and informational edge to generate alpha.

however, as a short-term, point-and-click, discretionary directional trader, one does not have access to the same process required to generate alpha. for traditional traders, the new market conditions insure that the playing field is tilted against them. retail traders continually find themselves falling behind these new competitors, in large part because the game has changed and because they lack the tools required to compete effectively. nevertheless, as the complexity of trading increases, it is still possible for a trader to separate from the pack and profit. the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success, because they will have increased the gap between the traders who have adapted to the new environment, and the less informed, less diligent, and less talented ones.

it’s not that alpha doesn’t exist- it just doesn’t exist for the retail trader. what traders earn beyond the risk-free rate is not a true profit but simply factor compensation—the market rate for the risks they take. any positive expectation is the result of accepting that risk: the payment for taking such a position is compensation for risk, not an excess return. so, a trader must assess his approach to trading and decide what steps must be taken to find a proxy for alpha; and it begins with adopting an attitude, that is both realistic and relevant. the best any trader can hope to achieve, under any circumstance, is an incomplete, but probabilistic knowledge of the trading environment. so a trader must realize and accept that the markets are dominated by the rules of chance and randomness, both skill and luck come into play. how traders cope with probabilistic uncertainty and their imperfect view of the market is critical to their success. the essential job of traders then is to reduce uncertainty, not risk.

as a leveraged trader, one makes short-term decisions/trades, but understands what is happening at time frames greater than the one he's currently trading. the decision to trade and its management, flows from an analysis of price action. he is aware traders operate at different time-frames, markets are interconnected, themes abound in markets and that probabilities and departures from value govern trading opportunities. he understands and incorporates relevant informational signals from a wide range of deterministic processes to arrive at a summed probability that acts as deeper context.

he manages the risk through diversification, keeps draw-downs to manageable levels and strikes a balance between profit maximization and loss mitigation by adjusting trade size and stop-loss levels, so that only an extreme event will trigger the stop. he keeps losses in a predetermined range, and prevents getting stopped-out of a potential winner by managing expected value along with p&l, while allowing for a margin of error, so that he may stay-in-the-trade.

he is not concerned about how often he is right about the market, and frequently adds to his winners and turns short-term winning positions into longer ones. yet, never loses sight of the fact there is a downside scenario with an associated probability. the way decisions are evaluated affects the way decisions are made, so one does not allow stress, cognitive load, emotions, and bias, to non-linearly affect the decision process.

smart traders have the capacity to aggregate and synthesize large volumes of information, analyze it, and then derive an edge from it. the primary step in this process is to develop the capability to gather timely information from all the various sources and attach relevance to the information as accurately as possible. then merge both data sets, public information and proprietary tools, to derive insights that are applied in making trading decisions. good traders figure out what game is working and play that game. if they can understand the interactions of the individual factors and their effects on the market as a whole, then they will be able to identify higher order patterns that are the result of these interactions. going beyond the standard correlation/causation question, the trader must ask, does this source of edge make sense? is there a behavioral or structural reason why this source of edge should persist? and he must expect to be surprised and have to make adjustments, and build that into his expectancy.

good traders are always working on themselves, always refining what they do. in an important sense, they don't just use introspection to improve their performance. they work on their performance as a means of extending their personal mastery. the best traders spend significant time generating trade ideas, researching markets, and staying on top of developments worldwide. the ratio of time spent in preparation to time spent actually in trading, is a measure of a trader's professionalism

every trade a trader makes provides an opportunity to learn. gathering information from every trade, as opposed to a select few, helps give the trader a better understanding of how those trades may perform in the future. the more frequent the analysis, the more relevant the findings will be. however, the findings serve a purpose only if they are acted upon. the key is to use information to guide actions whose outcomes are then analyzed and the findings reapplied. this creates a continuous iterative loop that drives towards ever greater efficiency.

if you look at alpha as various types of beta doing different things at different times, then a trader's returns are going to be lumpy and cyclical in nature and performance will revert to the mean. the central message for traders then, is to trade efficiently, and make the most money with the least cost. it's not how often you're right, but how much you're right. if you want to make money, then maximizing geometric returns should be front and center in your thinking.

the market and its past is identical for all observers. yet, the market and the future are understood uniquely by each trader. no matter how crude or refined a method one follows in ascertaining the likelihood of change, it still boils down to surviving against one's own incomplete intellect, a misfired bout of randomness, in controlling the risk, and in executing a set of consistent ideas day in and day out, so that chance can prevail. the opportunity is there for the traditional trader to capture his personal alpha. all he has to do is see the market for what it is, and not what it was, or what it appears to be.

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  #102 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Stop tagging me in these posts, its completely useless and annoying.....

I agree, get a job and invest your money in something else.....but stop tagging me....

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  #103 (permalink)
 Anna K 
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Bud, the unfortunate truth is that nobody can help you much in figuring out what to do and how to succeed in trading. Unless you can find a good mentor, which I imagine is very hard. The lengthy ambiguous posts you get are of little use in real life trading. It's all up to you to research, read, try different things, work on your psychology and find what works for you. It's a long, hard and lonely journey.

You want to trade forex, great! Find a blog where forex traders hang out and read their journals, look at their entries, models, etc. And keep trading in sim or small money every day to get a feel for the instrument you trade, keep records of your trades, do post trade analysis.

That's my 2 cents.

All the best.

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  #104 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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Anna K View Post
Bud, the unfortunate truth is that nobody can help you much in figuring out what to do and how to succeed in trading. Unless you can find a good mentor, which I imagine is very hard. The lengthy ambiguous posts you get are of little use in real life trading. It's all up to you to research, read, try different things, work on your psychology and find what works for you. It's a long, hard and lonely journey.

You want to trade forex, great! Find a blog where forex traders hang out and read their journals, look at their entries, models, etc. And keep trading in sim or small money every day to get a feel for the instrument you trade, keep records of your trades, do post trade analysis.

That's my 2 cents.

All the best.

if you would actually, THINK about what i'm saying, my lengthy ambiguous posts would have some meaning and would actually be of help to you. for someone who is going about the whole process of learning how to trade in an ass-backwards, myopic, & closed-minded manner, you are the last person who should be giving advice. my posts may seemingly be "ambiguous" or based on theory. and, i understand the word “theory,” makes most traders leery because they associate theory with theoretical , which implies impractical. but, if you define theory as a contingent explanation of cause and effect, it is eminently practical. a sound theory helps predict how actions or events lead to specific outcomes across a broad range of circumstances. my main message is that much of trading practice is unsound because it is based on poor practice as a result of improper theory. that is most traders generally dwell on attribute-based categorizations of the market i.e., patterns, formations and set-ups versus circumstance or contextual based categorizations. sound theories reflect context. most traders fail because the market doesn't do what they think it should, and this is because they really aren't trading the market. they don't take enough risk and they aren't patient enough to hold onto their winners. their theory of how to trade the market is flawed from the beginning and for most, they never come to a true understanding of how to effectively approach the market. a good theoretical understanding of how to approach trading leads to a practical application that is successful and profitable.

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  #105 (permalink)
 wldman 
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tigertrader View Post
if you would actually, THINK about what i'm saying, my lengthy ambiguous posts would have some meaning and would actually be of help to you. for someone who is going about the whole process of learning how to trade in an ass-backwards, myopic, & closed-minded manner, you are the last person who should be giving advice.

I found this to be hysterical.

Gary if you started a trading room and rang a bell once for long, twice for short and sounded a horn for square up and if you where correct 100% of the time some folks would want to know if it would work horn for enter bells for square. Then others would want to know if you could code it for auto trade and create an app.

Thanks for making me laugh out loud.

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  #106 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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wldman View Post
I found this to be hysterical.

Gary if you started a trading room and rang a bell once for long, twice for short and sounded a horn for square up and if you where correct 100% of the time some folks would want to know if it would work horn for enter bells for square. Then others would want to know if you could code it for auto trade and create an app.

Thanks for making me laugh out loud.

We'll call it the Tigercator. The last indicator you will ever need.

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  #107 (permalink)
 budfox 
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tturner86 View Post
I have no idea why you tag us in these post. Trading sucks... get a real job and buy some ETFs.

lol because I want your opinion. why are you so focussed on trading if you think it sucks? you quit trading?

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  #108 (permalink)
 budfox 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Stop tagging me in these posts, its completely useless and annoying.....

I agree, get a job and invest your money in something else.....but stop tagging me....

Hi Pandawarrior,

Sorry if I am annoying you. The reason I tag you in my posts is that I value your input. You were one of the first few people that offered me advice when I was first starting out.


Why do you think I should get a job? (ie not trade)

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  #109 (permalink)
 budfox 
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chuckchucker View Post
Hey Budfrog,

I'd recommend spending some time with TsT. They have a lot of good educators. I've been trading with them for over a year. I've never passed a combine, it's really helped me in my development. They have a great team there. I trade live now with a prop firm. I am succeeding in my career and I have this forum to thank and TsT. Still trying to pass that combine, LoL. If only I could learn to stop out of a losing position.


Problem with TST is that they don't have a forex combine...I am focussing on forex now since its more affordable.

@chuckchucker what you been up to lately chuckchucker?

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  #110 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
lol because I want your opinion. why are you so focussed on trading if you think it sucks? you quit trading?

People give you their opinion, but you don't listen. You 'decide' something else and then tag the same 20 people asking for their opinion again.

@tigertrader took some considerable time to write those two posts. Read, research, and digest.

I get the sense lately that everyone wants everyone else to do the work for them. That isn't going to work. Figure out how to do it for yourself. Any time tiger or another poster post something I don't understand I google and research the hell out of it. People were missing tiger's commentary in the Spoo thread over Thanksgiving, they shouldn't have been. They should understand what tiger looks at and been making their own (and there was a few who were).

But again the idea isn't to learn how to trade like another trader. The idea is to figure out how to get past your own shortcomings, read what the market is saying, and then create actionable ideas and then execute them. If you can't do any of that then you can't trade. Trading isn't like little league, everyone doesn't get a trophy and an attaboy. Not everyone is gonna be a good trader.

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  #111 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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@tigertrader in particular, find a way to give advice without insulting people or calling them names. Or simply don't engage that user at all and move on to others who still benefit from what you write and who don't get your blood boiling. Either way, stop with the rude behavior.

Mike

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  #112 (permalink)
 budfox 
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tturner86 View Post
People give you their opinion, but you don't listen. You 'decide' something else and then tag the same 20 people asking for their opinion again.

@tigertrader took some considerable time to write those two posts. Read, research, and digest.

I get the sense lately that everyone wants everyone else to do the work for them. That isn't going to work. Figure out how to do it for yourself. Any time tiger or another poster post something I don't understand I google and research the hell out of it. People were missing tiger's commentary in the Spoo thread over Thanksgiving, they shouldn't have been. They should understand what tiger looks at and been making their own (and there was a few who were).

But again the idea isn't to learn how to trade like another trader. The idea is to figure out how to get past your own shortcomings, read what the market is saying, and then create actionable ideas and then execute them. If you can't do any of that then you can't trade. Trading isn't like little league, everyone doesn't get a trophy and an attaboy. Not everyone is gonna be a good trader.

I was asking about opinion and advice about my recent idea/perspective. (not related to posts given months ago).

Thank You.

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  #113 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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budfox View Post
I was asking about opinion and advice about my recent idea/perspective. (not related to posts given months ago).

Thank You.

My point still stands. Learn to think for yourself... It doesn't matter the method or the strategy. If you cannot read, think, and create your own ideas nothing will work.

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  #114 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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tturner86 View Post
We'll call it the Tigercator. The last indicator you will ever need.


Big Mike View Post
Moderator Notice
Moderator Notice



@tigertrader in particular, find a way to give advice without insulting people or calling them names. Or simply don't engage that user at all and move on to others who still benefit from what you write and who don't get your blood boiling. Either way, stop with the rude behavior.

Mike

with all do respect @Big Mike, why i am being rude, when i respond to someone who has taken the initiative to insult me first? my response did not entail any profanity, and really wasn't a personal attack; but instead, an accurate assessment of my critic.

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 tturner86 
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tigertrader View Post
with all do respect @Big Mike, why i am being rude, when i respond to someone who has taken the initiative to insult me first? my response did not entail any profanity, and really wasn't a personal attack; but instead, an accurate assessment of my critic.

I hope you didn't quote me thinking I was insulting you. As that wasn't my intention. I was simply playing off Dan's post.

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 Big Mike 
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tigertrader View Post
with all do respect @Big Mike, why i am being rude, when i respond to someone who has taken the initiative to insult me first? my response did not entail any profanity, and really wasn't a personal attack; but instead, an accurate assessment of my critic.

I understand. That person has been on my ignore list for a while so I don't see his posts. I very rarely use ignore, as administrator, but since someone else paid for his membership as a gift I feel bad banning him.

Just put him on ignore if you have too and move on

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 PandaWarrior 
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budfox View Post
Hi Pandawarrior,



Sorry if I am annoying you. The reason I tag you in my posts is that I value your input. You were one of the first few people that offered me advice when I was first starting out.





Why do you think I should get a job? (ie not trade)


You don't value anyone's input.....which is obvious to all but yourself.

It's also obvious to all you seem incapable of thinking for yourself. Therefore I suggest you get a job so you don't have to think.

Do not tag me again. I'm a reasonable and normally non confrontational person but I'm pretty much tired of your antics as I suspect most are.

I'll probably be taking @Big Mikes advice and placing you on the ignore list.

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  #118 (permalink)
 Anna K 
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tigertrader View Post
if you would actually, THINK about what i'm saying, my lengthy ambiguous posts would have some meaning and would actually be of help to you. for someone who is going about the whole process of learning how to trade in an ass-backwards, myopic, & closed-minded manner, you are the last person who should be giving advice. my posts may seemingly be "ambiguous" or based on theory. and, i understand the word “theory,” makes most traders leery because they associate theory with theoretical , which implies impractical. but, if you define theory as a contingent explanation of cause and effect, it is eminently practical. a sound theory helps predict how actions or events lead to specific outcomes across a broad range of circumstances. my main message is that much of trading practice is unsound because it is based on poor practice as a result of improper theory. that is most traders generally dwell on attribute-based categorizations of the market i.e., patterns, formations and set-ups versus circumstance or contextual based categorizations. sound theories reflect context. most traders fail because the market doesn't do what they think it should, and this is because they really aren't trading the market. they don't take enough risk and they aren't patient enough to hold onto their winners. their theory of how to trade the market is flawed from the beginning and for most, they never come to a true understanding of how to effectively approach the market. a good theoretical understanding of how to approach trading leads to a practical application that is successful and profitable.

Dear Tiger, I truly apologize for being so dense that some of your writing doesn't make sense to me. I only assume that I'm not alone there and some other people may be not as bright as you are, otherwise everybody on this forum would be making a lot of money after reading and rereading your lenghy theoretical prose. So I just want them not to feel alone

Please don't take my inability to understand your brilliant advice personally. My intention is not to insult you, but simply to show that not everybody can think like you, understand the markets like you and trade like you. Wouldn't you agree that there are successful traders who trade and analyze the markets differently from you? You can't possibly claim monopoly over knowledge! There is a possibility of going another way, however "ass-backwards" it may seem to you.

I even agree with you on many parts of your well-though out, non-"patronizing" and "honest" posts, for example with this:
"most traders fail because the market doesn't do what they think it should, and this is because they really aren't trading the market".

So keep working that "chisel to break down the brick wall of ignorance that stands between success and failure." Don't give up on us!

I wish you much success, patience and empathy in the New Year!

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  #119 (permalink)
 wldman 
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it is Anna K that initiates by referring to other members posts as lengthy, ambiguous, and of little or no use in real life trading.

Oh my God the irony.

Start it, uninitiated, with another member (who happens to be exactly correct) and then report the post that responds with similar tone and language?

I'll share my two cents.

Folks, if you want the input of someone who's humility and lack of a publicist prevented him from being featured in the pop psychology trading books that so many love...if you want the input of someone that was prolific for decades among floor trading legends...if you value the insight of an extremely well versed professional trader that is connected to the absolute top players in the history of the most competitive trading environments the world has ever seen....consider approaching Mr. long winded ambiguous low value poster @tigertrader with an open mind and the due respect that he well deserves for sharing here for free insight and information that could be worth millions of dollars.

@Big Mike like I have said a hundred times, your venue, your rules. I applaud what you have created here Mike and the countless hours of work, much of it tedious and a pain in the buttocks. This is a remarkable venue, without question the best on the net. I am beyond grateful to be a member here. I understand your reaction to a post being referred to moderator. That said, please consider an equal request be made to the other party by name like was made of Gary. His lengthy and thoughtful response to a struggling trader is EXACTLY what we want here as members. Dozens of Gary's posts should be required reading of anyone that wants to enter the fray and this one (referred to as low value ambiguity) is no exception. I have skin thicker than a rhino and I have, in fact, seen it all so the post that was directed at my friend is greeted with the hilarity that it deserves..but equal folks would take equal offense, for sure. Past that Gary amended his post to modify the intent so that it could be understood by a wider audience.

So, where does a cowboy in the jungle go for a month to get away from it all anyway. Hoping that was vacation and well deserved leisure.

Dan

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 wldman 
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do not bite on that.

Anna that reads as disingenuous, or satirical and frankly you ought to be ashamed. You can have the last word though and you can continue to be whoever you choose. No offense taken at the lengthy, ambiguous and low value comments, but this one here is a gem.

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 josh 
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Anna K View Post
I only assume that I'm not alone there and some other people may be not as bright as you are, otherwise everybody on this forum would be making a lot of money after reading and rereading your lenghy theoretical prose.

It's only slightly, partially about being "bright" -- it's more about being humble enough to take advice from others who are eminently more experienced than you are, particularly when you don't like the advice, diligent enough to self-study and research without expecting others to hand you answers, flexible and adaptable and willing to change to learn new things, creative enough to "be yourself" while still incorporating new ways of doing things, among many others, all of which Gary is. He has been trading for 40 years, and is probably the person on this forum most rooted in the practical, reality, the least theoretical, if you will. I'm not finger pointing at you or anyone by the way, just saying it.

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 Anna K 
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wldman View Post
it is Anna K that initiates by referring to other members posts as lengthy, ambiguous, and of little or no use in real life trading.

Oh my God the irony.

Start it, uninitiated, with another member (who happens to be exactly correct) and then report the post that responds with similar tone and language?

I'll share my two cents.

Folks, if you want the input of someone who's humility and lack of a publicist prevented him from being featured in the pop psychology trading books that so many love...if you want the input of someone that was prolific for decades among floor trading legends...if you value the insight of an extremely well versed professional trader that is connected to the absolute top players in the history of the most competitive trading environments the world has ever seen....consider approaching Mr. long winded ambiguous low value poster @tigertrader with an open mind and the due respect that he well deserves for sharing here for free insight and information that could be worth millions of dollars.

@Big Mike like I have said a hundred times, your venue, your rules. I applaud what you have created here Mike and the countless hours of work, much of it tedious and a pain in the buttocks. This is a remarkable venue, without question the best on the net. I am beyond grateful to be a member here. I understand your reaction to a post being referred to moderator. That said, please consider an equal request be made to the other party by name like was made of Gary. His lengthy and thoughtful response to a struggling trader is EXACTLY what we want here as members. Dozens of Gary's posts should be required reading of anyone that wants to enter the fray and this one (referred to as low value ambiguity) is no exception. I have skin thicker than a rhino and I have, in fact, seen it all so the post that was directed at my friend is greeted with the hilarity that it deserves..but equal folks would take equal offense, for sure. Past that Gary amended his post to modify the intent so that it could be understood by a wider audience.

So, where does a cowboy in the jungle go for a month to get away from it all anyway. Hoping that was vacation and well deserved leisure.

Dan

Just for the record, I'm not sure what you are implying, but I did NOT report Tiger's post. I'm sure @Big Mike can confirm that.

I appreciate you defending Tiger and glad that you find his advice valuable.

As I said before, there is lots of stuff that Tiger mentioned that makes sense to me and lots more that does not.

Surely there could be a variety of opinions expressed on this forum. We don't all have to agree all the time.

Best to you.

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 tturner86 
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 wldman 
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Anna K View Post
Just for the record, I'm not sure what you are implying, but I did NOT report Tiger's post. I'm sure @Big Mike can confirm that.

I appreciate you defending Tiger and glad that you find his advice valuable.

As I said before, there is lots of stuff that Tiger mentioned that makes sense to me and lots more that does not.

Surely there could be a variety of opinions expressed on this forum. We don't all have to agree all the time.

Best to you.

I was not making an implication, I was being direct and saying that you did report the post. If you did not (and I really don't care) you are still the antagonist here, the first to criticize, and completely wrong. Any doubt about that is cleared up in the subsequent "apology" post.

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 Anna K 
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josh View Post
It's only slightly, partially about being "bright" -- it's more about being humble enough to take advice from others who are eminently more experienced than you are, particularly when you don't like the advice, diligent enough to self-study and research without expecting others to hand you answers, flexible and adaptable and willing to change to learn new things, creative enough to "be yourself" while still incorporating new ways of doing things, among many others, all of which Gary is. He has been trading for 40 years, and is probably the person on this forum most rooted in the practical, reality, the least theoretical, if you will. I'm not finger pointing at you or anyone by the way, just saying it.

Josh, it's not that I don't like his advice, it's that I truly just don't understand most of it. I know for a fact that I'm not alone in that, so I want other people on futures.io (formerly BMT) to see that there could be another way to trade and learn. Or at least debate that, instead of having a policy of "my way or the highway".

Also, I'm not questioning TT's trading abilities, experience and expertise, so I'm not sure why everybody feels the need to defend them. I'm questioning just his teaching technique/style and more importantly, the monopoly* of it.

And I've learned long ago after opening my journal here that nobody is going to hand me the answers, I don't expect them to. I do plenty of my own reading, researching, practicing, failing, changing, failing again and hopefully learning. And I have a long way to go. And unlike Tiger, I don't claim my way to learn to be the only way. It's what works for me and I don't post advice in other people's journals much. This was my first time commenting in somebody's journal for a long time and last for sure. Tomorrow is time to focus on my own thing.

Thanks for your opinion and help.

*Monopoly - the exclusive possession or control of the supply or trade in a commodity or service.

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 Anna K 
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wldman View Post
I was not making an implication, I was being direct and saying that you did report the post. If you did not (and I really don't care) you are still the antagonist here, the first to criticize, and completely wrong. Any doubt about that is cleared up in the subsequent "apology" post.

Well, I'm a big girl and I can take care of myself, I don't need and army of defenders to come to my rescue, I'm sure Tiger Trader doesn't either.

So, why don't you ask Big Mike and see if you were wrong in your assumptions about my reporting the post and then apologize for it if you are such a proponent of the truth.

One doesn't have to be right or wrong, life is not always back and white. We can have a diversity of opinions here. My opinion can not be wrong simply because it's an opinion not a fact. I am merely stating my opinion, which is true to me, but doesn't have to be true to you. That's what's called the difference of opinions.

Let's agree to disagree.


PS. I wasn't told before about the unspoken rule that nobody is allowed to criticize TT, only he is allowed to criticize everybody. Now I know. That was educational. Thank you.

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 wldman 
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moving on.

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 budfox 
Toronto
 
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Anna K View Post
Just for the record, I'm not sure what you are implying, but I did NOT report Tiger's post. I'm sure @Big Mike can confirm that.

I appreciate you defending Tiger and glad that you find his advice valuable.

As I said before, there is lots of stuff that Tiger mentioned that makes sense to me and lots more that does not.

Surely there could be a variety of opinions expressed on this forum. We don't all have to agree all the time.

Best to you.


Interesting. I of course never reported Gary's post, in fact I am very grateful for his insight, one of the few posts that was actually constructive.

I wonder who reported Gary (if anyone really did).

Oh and btw I don't appreciate all the non-related immature arguing on my thread.

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 josh 
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Anna K View Post
And I've learned long ago after opening my journal here that nobody is going to hand me the answers, I don't expect them to. I do plenty of my own reading, researching, practicing, failing, changing, failing again and hopefully learning. And I have a long way to go.

As I said Anna, I wasn't pointing fingers at anybody and especially you.


Anna K View Post
PS. I wasn't told before about the unspoken rule that nobody is allowed to criticize TT, only he is allowed to criticize everybody. Now I know. That was educational. Thank you.

Anna, sounds a little passive-aggressive, c'mon, that's not how you are.

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 josh 
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budfox View Post
Oh the and btw I don't appreciate all the non-related immature arguing on my thread.


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 Anna K 
LA, ca
 
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budfox View Post
Interesting. I of course never reported Gary's post, in fact I am very grateful for his insight, one of the few posts that was actually constructive.

I wonder who reported Gary (if anyone really did).

Oh and btw I don't appreciate all the non-related immature arguing on my thread.

Sorry for hijacking your journal. I was just trying to give you my perspective on learning how to trade and it escalated a bit. I apologize.

PS. I don't see why it matters who reported the post anyway. We are adults here. It clearly was way outside of the rules of this forum or Mike wouldn't have reacted or said anything.

Good luck to you.

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  #132 (permalink)
 chuckchucker 
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@budfrog

My wife and I just had a baby. So that has been my focus lately. I also have a part-time job at night to keep bread in my jar. Also, I still work with a prop firm in Chicago. That helps since I live here, I can do that easier. SO that takes up my day.

I don't know how I can help you. I don't trade forex. When I trade during the day; I trade stocks. I like to have several positions on at once; ideally up to 30 different positions is ( at a time ) is about where I top out at. I trade NASDAQ stocks. They are smaller positions, so I don't get stressed, but I have been sizing them up with more experience. Preferably, I like to be flat by the close, but will hold overnight if I am taking a lot of heat on a trade. I will do this with the idea that the next day open volatility price will hit my profit target or price will swing. If not, then I will average down on that position and try to work myself out of the hole. Using smaller position sizes allows me the option to average down. It's not an ideal scenario and is usually a result of bad trade management, but averaging down in a disciplined manner has saved me on many occasions. When a trade is going profitable, is just as difficult. But most times I just trail a few ticks below/above the 30m low/high and move on to the next trade. That keeps me from over analyzing. Stocks are great because there is always another trade. If I'm following 200 stocks at a time; I don't have time to waste over anaylzing something.

Actually, at night I like to over analyze things, but not during the day. At night, when I'm not being a good husband or working out; I like to study automated strategies and stuff like that. Thats when trading becomes more of a hobby than a discipline. I'm not a good programmer though, so a lot of my concepts are just stuck in my head. I'm more of an artist-type, I can paint a photo-realistic painting with a paint brush, but couldn't program an algo that could come up with the perfect risk/reward trailing stop if my life depended on it. I don't know anyone that can either. If you do, please let me know.

Anyways, the baby is crying and still need to walk the dog. So that's my random thoughts for now. This thread is really random.

Later,
chuckchucker

Alligators and crocodiles are not the same. A lot of people don't know that.
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  #133 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Anna K View Post
PS. I wasn't told before about the unspoken rule that nobody is allowed to criticize TT, only he is allowed to criticize everybody. Now I know. That was educational. Thank you.

This type of response makes my blood boil. There are a few individuals on futures.io (formerly BMT) that enjoying complaining about futures.io (formerly BMT) to others instead of working to make it a better place.

My problem is that negativity breeds negativity. I have never understood why people remain on the forum if they dislike it so much or dislike the way I run it.

When I read a post like yours, to me it insights additional negativity and then when certain people thank these negative posts multiple times, it makes me think those are the people that are breeding more negativity. It just creates drama.

Let's keep it simple please. If you like the forum, then be here, but be nice. If you dislike the forum or any part of it whatsoever, then either avoid being overly negative about it over and over, or just avoid posting altogether, or just stop coming to the site.

My point being, I will not allow for more and more negativity to spawn just because a couple of people out of thousands of active members dislike one particular member. Grow up and place the user on your ignore list and stop complaining about it, or if you can't do that, then stop visiting the site. Let me do my job please.

It is not possible to make everyone happy. You have to trust in my judgment since you cannot possibly understand what is involved in my decisions until you become me. If you cannot trust my decision, then this is not the place for you.

Mike

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  #134 (permalink)
 treydog999 
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Wow I gotta say that this blew up overnight and has become one of the very rare negative impact threads I see here on futures.io (formerly BMT). I was originally tagged in this thread randomly just like many others. I did feel the urge to help and give advice as best as I could. Now I want to try to atleast get this back on track and maybe throw in my 2 cents. For better or worse.

@budfox I really feel what these other guys like @PandaWarrior @tigertrader are feeling. At first I felt like I was randomly tagged but still felt like i should try and be helpful. I have tried to give you advice for your algo trading using the same methods and evaluation criteria that I use for my own capital. No more no less, not to mention algo development is the type of trading "style" I am best at. However it has been to no avail. For reasons mentioned above including: strategy jumping, not testing thoroughly enough, and just in general not following proper algorithm development practices. What I take away from the results of my several posts and your replies is put bluntly that you are just not willing to put in the work. You are not willing to take the time to develop the skillset to do the job properly through learning coding and you are to lazy to test either manually or automatically a trade report with statstically significant results. Copying others strategies, changing to cheaper instruments, or any advice anyone gives you always comes back to you. You need to make it actionable and take it as a seed that you can use or throw it away and go your own path. Theres no other way around it. Sorry for the blunt language but I think every trader needs to look in the mirror first when they are struggling. Its usually the first place you can find a problem, but harsh sounding when others point it out.

@wldman I know you fairly well and we have had some excellent conversations that have lead to great changes in my own outlook on trading.

@tigertrader I have read many of your posts and respect and enjoy the content. You do not suffer fools in your posts and if your not thinking when you read them most people will miss 80% of the content.

@Anna K Unfortunately I am not as familiar with your posts but you make a good point no one on this forum needs people jump in and protect others. IMHO we all are intelligent enough to have our own arguments and statements stand on their own merit.

So lets focus on what this forum is about discussing and helping others in regards to trading. All in a non negative and well catered environment. Also heres to hoping that I am not the peace keeper who ends up getting punched in the face from both sides.

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 tigertrader 
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the bible on market profile; but, much more

chapters 10 and 12 are a must read for all aspiring traders

The most important element in becoming a successful trader is having a sound background consisting of a strong base of knowledge acquired from being active in the markets through time. Building this background is in some ways the easiest and in other ways the most difficult thing for a trader to accomplish. Trading experiences, observations of all kinds, a focus on what is most important, and a clear understanding of business principles are all necessary ingredients in a strong trading background. Awareness and patience are also required to further develop’s background. Without a sound background, one’s trading cannot be consistently successful. With it, one can develop clear, correct ways of thinking and confidence in one’s trading judgment. In today’s fast-moving world, some traders try to bypass the crucial first step of developing a sound background, and then rationalize the lack of background for the rest of their careers. - from chapter 1



One year later into my trading career...........seeking guidance and direction-steidlmayer-markets.pdf

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  #136 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
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treydog999 View Post
. At first I felt like I was randomly tagged but still felt like i should try and be helpful. I have tried to give you advice for your algo trading using the same methods and evaluation criteria that I use for my own capital. No more no less, not to mention algo development is the type of trading "style" I am best at. However it has been to no avail. For reasons mentioned above including: strategy jumping, not testing thoroughly enough, and just in general not following proper algorithm development practices. What I take away from the results of my several posts and your replies is put bluntly that you are just not willing to put in the work. You are not willing to take the time to develop the skillset to do the job properly through learning coding and you are to lazy to test either manually or automatically a trade report with statstically significant results. Copying others strategies, changing to cheaper instruments, or any advice anyone gives you always comes back to you. You need to make it actionable and take it as a seed that you can use or throw it away and go your own path. Theres no other way around it. Sorry for the blunt language but I think every trader needs to look in the mirror first when they are struggling. Its usually the first place you can find a problem, but harsh sounding when others point it out.

Hi Trey,

Thank You for the reply. There seems to be great misconception that I am expecting people to spoonfeed me, but if you personally knew me then it you would know that that is not further from the truth.

I am very surprised at your change in attitude, as I was greatly inspired by your previous posts , which did have great influence over me.

Regarding the 'not testing sufficiently enough" a lot of performance profiles I posted where preliminary>> I aim to manually test around 100 trades for every model. I even started reading Pardo's book (which you cited in one of your posts)

You should also know that I spend an hour every day on Lynda (which I paid for) and other sites and on Visual Studio learning C# (it is hard learning it from scratch in an unstructured environment), I am not as skilled as you or traderpards, but I am steadily improving my skills.

Please dont feel or believe that your posts were 'wasted' on me, some of your advice I instantly implemented, and my backtesting capability was greatly developed due to it.

When I become a successful full time trader (and I know will be ), I will dedicate myself to helping aspiring traders like myself in the future.

Please dont fire me boss, I believe I can be a positive contribution to your firm.

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 budfox 
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tigertrader View Post
the bible on market profile; but, much more

chapters 10 and 12 are a must read for all aspiring traders

The most important element in becoming a successful trader is having a sound background consisting of a strong base of knowledge acquired from being active in the markets through time. Building this background is in some ways the easiest and in other ways the most difficult thing for a trader to accomplish. Trading experiences, observations of all kinds, a focus on what is most important, and a clear understanding of business principles are all necessary ingredients in a strong trading background. Awareness and patience are also required to further develop’s background. Without a sound background, one’s trading cannot be consistently successful. With it, one can develop clear, correct ways of thinking and confidence in one’s trading judgment. In today’s fast-moving world, some traders try to bypass the crucial first step of developing a sound background, and then rationalize the lack of background for the rest of their careers. - from chapter 1



Attachment 168488

Thank you for the suggestion sir. I will make sure to read it (even though I trade forex lol ) .

@tigertrader

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 treydog999 
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budfox View Post
Hi Trey,

Thank You for the reply. There seems to be great misconception that I am expecting people to spoonfeed me, but if you personally knew me then it you would know that that is not further from the truth.

I am very surprised at your change in attitude, as I was greatly inspired by your previous posts , which did have great influence over me.

Regarding the 'not testing sufficiently enough" a lot of performance profiles I posted where preliminary>> I aim to manually test around 100 trades for every model. I even started reading Pardo's book (which you cited in one of your posts)

You should also know that I spend an hour every day on Lynda (which I paid for) and other sites and on Visual Studio learning C# (it is hard learning it from scratch in an unstructured environment), I am not as skilled as you or traderpards, but I am steadily improving my skills.

Please dont feel or believe that your posts were 'wasted' on me, some of your advice I instantly implemented, and my backtesting capability was greatly developed due to it.

When I become a successful full time trader (and I know will be ), I will dedicate myself to helping aspiring traders like myself in the future.

Please dont fire me boss, I believe I can be a positive contribution to your firm.

@budfox if that is true, then I apologize. I can not see how much work you are doing behind the screen in your own time. I have to admit I did become a little frustrated at the constant tagging and lack of what I considered good results or show of improvement from what I could see. Which let me change my position to one of spoonfeeding and irritation, but thats on me. So suprising how forums can do that, even when you start with the best of intentions.

I am very happy to hear that you are implementing my ideas and that its making an impact. But I think the most important thing that you said in your quote is what I bolded, that you KNOW you will be successful. It takes that kind of attidude to get through a lot of the early stages and power through the learning curve. Its not easy and definately takes a lot of grit and self confidance as its easy to give up. This is the important bit, not what anyone else can see on the forum. But that you know you are taking steps forward. Doesn't really matter what I or anyone else says, eventually you will be carving your own path.

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 Big Mike 
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budfox View Post
There seems to be great misconception that I am expecting people to spoonfeed me,

OK I cannot take it any more. You even got someone else to pay your Elite Membership!

I have warned you multiple times in the past to stop your foolishness on the forum, and yet here we are again with one of your threads. If you don't stop posting this crap, then I will ban you, and I will go look at my records to figure out who paid for your membership and I will give them their money back.

My recommendation is to stop trading. At the least stop posting.

Mike

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  #140 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Big Mike View Post
OK I cannot take it any more. You even got someone else to pay your Elite Membership!

..................

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 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
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budfox View Post
...



Big Mike View Post
OK I cannot take it any more. You even got someone else to pay your Elite Membership!

..................

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  #142 (permalink)
 budfox 
Toronto
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra
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Posts: 313 since Jun 2013


cory View Post
..................

lol I dont get the NInja? (PM me)

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  #143 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
 
Posts: 2,893 since Apr 2012
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I think it's safe to say some trades(threads) are better off not taken. Oh but I think I just jynxed myself

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #144 (permalink)
sharpshoota
Bodoe , Norway
 
 
Posts: 143 since Jun 2014
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@ budfox
Have you checked out "forex tester 2" , I did purchase it and it has helped me thrust my tradingsystem. Much better than any book I invested in.
FT71's webinars have helped me think about how I can make things work out the way that suits me best. A big thank you to FT71 & Big Mike for doing them.

One advice I was given by Walter Peters has been good :
First step -> test your system with the forex tester . Then you will have a clue if it works or not. and you will gain confidence in it.
Second step -> trade demo account until you have trippled your demo account.
Third step -> Go live with a small part of your money. when you have successfully trippled the small account you can move to next step.

Step Four-> you can now trade live with your full size account that you have been saving until you proved to yourself that you were able to trade consistently profitable for a long time .

This is the path I'm at... step 3 now.

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Thxo
West Java
 
 
Posts: 145 since Apr 2014
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sharpshoota View Post
@ budfox
Have you checked out "forex tester 2" , I did purchase it and it has helped me thrust my tradingsystem. Much better than any book I invested in.


Totally agree ...

---

and .. budfox, there are many resource/experiment for this kind of Q @ more focused FX forums, for your reference.
even if we find profitable method over certain period of time, how do we know that this result is not due to random chance ? ...


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Johno1
Geelong Victoria
 
 
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tigertrader View Post
@budfox

my most profound piece of advice is not to look at the market in the same way as everyone else looks at it. do not read the same books on trading as everyone else, and certainly do not trade as everyone else trades. if your inputs are the same as everyone else's, you will have no advantage as a trader and your results will be the same as everyone else's. you will operate with the same heuristics and have the same predictable biases that emanate from those heuristics. and, do not determine honestly, what style of trading I am most suited for! instead determine what style of trading is suited for making the greatest amount of profit under the current regime and market conditions.

OBSERVE the market and its attendant price action. markets are complex adaptive systems, which by nature are non-linear and obscure cause and effect. therefore, it is impossible to predict what is going to take place in the future. nevertheless, when you see something occur you are going to create a narrative to explain what happened -and you will probably be mistaken. cnbc does this on a daily basis and is wrong on a daily basis. so, the trick is to see the market, for what it is, and not what it appears to be. this skill takes years and years of screen time observing the markets, and one's approach to trading has to be constantly updated and modified as the markets change. this is why you will not find the answer on how to profit from trading in any book. as soon as it would be uncovered it would be obsolete.

i personally, never read books on trading. instead, i like to read books on decision and game theory. this helps me to be aware of the factors that distort my judgement. one must be able to eliminate the deleterious effects of emotion, stress, and bias in the decision process otherwise one can throw all one's methodology out the window.

from a previous post of mine...

aside from being under capitalized, the biggest mistake aspiring traders make, is underestimating the amount of knowledge and deliberate practice required to become a successful full-time trader. for some reason, they assume trading is different from other performance related activities, and that they can read a book and step right into the market and make money. unfortunately, this is about as naive as someone sitting down at a table with poker pros, after playing a only few hands online, and thinking they're going to be competitive. ironically, the market and vegas have more in common than one might think. they were both created by the top-feeders for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the bottom feeders. the only real difference is in vegas you get free drinks. the narratives that are used to sell the dream are the same; and like all good narratives, there is just enough of a ring of truth to them, to make them believable. inevitably, they always appeal to our intellect and emotions, yet they only exist for the benefit of those who would like to take our money. understand this very salient fact and you will stand a much better chance of succeeding.
  • know you have enough Money- if you don't have enough capital to begin with, you're finished, before you started.
  • know the Market- the trader who has the better (more complete) and more timely (current) analysis will enjoy the greatest edge and have the greatest success- if you don't believe that a comprehensive knowledge of the market is important, you're well on your way out the door.
  • know your Methodology-it's taken me 8 years of trading electronically (after having been a professional trader for +30 years, to reach my current level of competency. if you truly believe, that you can compete against the most sophisticated traders in the world by drawing trend-lines and channels and employing anachronistic trading methods, you're sadly mistaken, and soon to be broke.
  • know how to Make-Money- there is a big difference between knowing how to trade, and knowing how to make money. the latter is about doing whatever it takes to get the job done. it's about trading the right markets, in the right ways, for the right reasons. in other words, you don't trade a market , because you like its trading hours; you choose to trade a market because its the best vehicle for making the most money. and you trade it in the way, that affords you the highest probability of making the most money.
  • know yourself & your Mentality - there are a variety of different stressors, emotional/personality flaws, and biases, that effect a trader's ability to make objective decisions. be smart enough to know you're dumb enough, that you don't know everything. The successful performances are those that really aren't about you- don't let who you are get in the way of your trading success.
one last general piece of advice - consider the source of the information you seek. as daniel patrick moynihan once said, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but not their own facts. most books geared to the retail trader, are out-dated, irrelevant, ineffectual and misguided - and quite frankly, so are most of the posts you read on this forum. once again, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but only a few posters on this site are sufficiently qualified to render one. you can also choose to try to show everybody how much faith you have in your own methodology, even if it's never been profitable, or you can use the forum to learn from others who have actually been successful. if you really want to learn, find ways to assess information systematically and surround yourself with experienced, knowledgeable, and proven people, who will challenge your opinions; even when they tell you something you don't want to hear..

Well said, certainly sage advice, it's amazing how these opinions will be derided and ridiculed on some sites. To succeed at this business the list of required attributes is almost endless, with rational independant thinking at the head of the list. I've found my greatest edge to be my 30+ years as a businessman, trading is about money, when it involves money then success will always be about business, not the latest indicator/method. Cheers John

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  #147 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
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Trading: ES, ZB
 
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Johno1 View Post
Well said, certainly sage advice, it's amazing how these opinions will be derided and ridiculed on some sites. To succeed at this business the list of required attributes is almost endless, with rational independant thinking at the head of the list. I've found my greatest edge to be my 30+ years as a businessman, trading is about money, when it involves money then success will always be about business, not the latest indicator/method. Cheers John

thanks, mate. still never met an Aussie i didn't like... -g

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  #148 (permalink)
 jamesm3331 
Buffalo NY/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TC 2000, NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 1 since Jan 2015
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I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. I'm new to futures trading.

@tigertrader: your posts are extremely well thought-out and intelligently written. They have increased my big picture understanding of the futures market.

@tturner86: I've read the first few pages of your journal. It looks good so far! I'm interested in reading more.

I'd like to thank not just those two, but everyone who took the time to post something constructive in this thread. Your efforts and advice are much appreciated.

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  #149 (permalink)
ender41
MONTREAL
 
 
Posts: 5 since Jan 2019
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I've been at this for two and half years now.

And still not profitable. Yet I know of someone who is making good money after six months.

Damn ! but I'm not giving up

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