Spy off 4.6%, mcclellan dropping off a cliff, but Russell 2000 off 3.6%? - futures io
futures io futures trading



Spy off 4.6%, mcclellan dropping off a cliff, but Russell 2000 off 3.6%?


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated by Jigsaw Trading
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one skilluminati with 2 posts (1 thanks)
    2. looks_two Jigsaw Trading with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 ratfink with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    1. trending_up 2,771 views
    2. thumb_up 1 thanks given
    3. group 1 followers
    1. forum 4 replies
    2. attach_file 1 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 100,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Spy off 4.6%, mcclellan dropping off a cliff, but Russell 2000 off 3.6%?

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Warszawa, Polska
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra chart
Broker: IB/IQ
Trading: equities, options, futures
 
skilluminati's Avatar
 
Posts: 32 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 24 given, 17 received

I'm having a little difficult time interpreting the current market situation so I'd appreciate if somebody smarter than me could chime in and provide their feedback. I believe that current price action on the S&P indicates that there's a sell off in the large caps and my ES target is ~1550. At the same time, the NYSE McClellan oscillator has been falling (now off a cliff ) since even before S&P peaked on May 22nd. My takeaway from that is that the big boys were in the process of taking some chips off the table before that date in anticipation of a pullback. However, the Russell 2000 is still holding up better than nasdaq-100 and S&P. Normally, I'd expect the small caps to lead the decline in a serious pullback so the current situation leads me to believe that big money is just reallocating and we will be on the way back sooner than later. On the other hand, the orderly rise in VIX is more worrisome to me than the big unsustainable spikes we had in the few months prior so this could be a tell that a more serious decline this time is in order. Also supporting this scenario is the fact that we're now seeing a large drop in basic materials, commodities, transports and energy sectors which I think are giving us a clue about the macroeconomic near future and company earnings. If demand is down, profits could be down, dragging the market.
Of course this is just my opinion and I could be way off, so I'd like to ask you what you make of this and what are your expectations on what the market in general is trying to do.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Buying at the bid, and/or selling at the ask, chasing market
NinjaTrader
Do you trade on Sundays?
Emini and Emicro Index
Scan by comparing SMAs within 5 mins
ThinkOrSwim
FYI plot bug & workaround: changing color or width is delayed 1 bar
EasyLanguage Programming
Setting up an alert on a Gartley study
Traders Hideout
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Is anyone actually making money?
184 thanks
Micro account vs Funded account (combine)
52 thanks
Are sharks watching on the other side?
32 thanks
Market profile entries/exits
25 thanks
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
21 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,652 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 17,422 given, 8,386 received


Sounds about right to me. The 60yr Gann cycle would support yet higher after a significant pullback first but there are still sufficient loose debt bombs out there to spanner that. Of course the main catch is that with all the CB/WS/Gov activities we haven't had a valid price mechanism for so long that most information is out of the window anyway. Once bond yields start lifting with acceleration then all bets are off.

Travel Well
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
Warszawa, Polska
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra chart
Broker: IB/IQ
Trading: equities, options, futures
 
skilluminati's Avatar
 
Posts: 32 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 24 given, 17 received


ratfink View Post
Once bond yields start lifting with acceleration then all bets are off.

Rising bond yields could be net positive for the stock market in the mid to long term as it could indicate an increased appetite for risk - the proceeds from bond sales may be channeled to buy shares. The fed's QE efforts since the beginning have not resulted in hyperinflation (deflation first is more likely judging by ballooning balance sheets and muted lending by banks that would increase the money supply) predicted by doomsayers and so the people who were on the wrong side and missed out on the rally could be getting in soon. However, I'm more interested here in the short term divergence I commented on in my first post and what it means for the market in the short term in terms of price targets.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to skilluminati for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Legendary  Vendor: www.jigsawtrading.com 
Bangkok
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker: AMP, S5, IB
Trading: ES
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,977 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 823 given, 10,277 received

To put things in perspective, here is a monthly chart of the ES...



We are still "one timeframing" up on a monthly basis. I think hitting last months low will be interesting if it happens.

If anything, I just think the market over-extended itself. I see no reason to be overly bearish at this point in time based on the past couple of weeks.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Emini and Emicro Index > Spy off 4.6%, mcclellan dropping off a cliff, but Russell 2000 off 3.6%?


June 6, 2013


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

Every journal equals ten meals for the hungry

Now
     



Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts