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Shorting futures is the safest way to trade them intraday.


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Shorting futures is the safest way to trade them intraday.

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  #1 (permalink)
wkniemann
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Hello BigMike et al,

I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

Bill Niemann

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  #3 (permalink)
 tgibbs 
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Sounds kinda apocalyptic . . .

For every seller there is a buyer. And if you are trading oil then you would want to reverse that to being long as any dumb news event from the Middle East an make it jump.

Not a good strategy in my opinion. The introduction to al brooks first book talks about some historic news events. Very interesting.

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  #4 (permalink)
wkniemann
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Hi Tgibbs,

I so appreciate your comment.

You know who Murphy is: "if it can happen, it will".

In my opinion, we must take into consideration the possible coming
crash of the emini s&p. I say coming, because that happens periodically
and with what the government is doing with our debt is bound to reach
a critical point. I don't want to hope that there will be a buyer
for my long postion in that when thousands of sellers hit the brokers
to get out, the price has to gap to handle the situation.

Very painful for a long position. Shorts would be ok!

Your oil future comment is quite relivant. I would never consider a
future that could gap on the upside and really hurt if I happened to be
short at that time.

I could be wrong, but if one is short, I believe the s&p mini would have
an orderly exit with rising prices. I don't think it would seriously gap up
and jump stop loss orders. Maybe if Gandi returns, there would be a wild
buying binge, but I don't think so. Stock market indices move down much faster
because of fear than up because of greed.

This pumping of the money supply world wide will come to a crashing end
with hyper inflation to deal with. Check out Weiss Research (use google to
get there).

I'll check out Al Brooks, and thanks.


Bill Niemann

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 PandaWarrior 
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wkniemann View Post
Hello BigMike et al,

I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

Bill Niemann

Lots of folks have gone broke shorting government stupidity....beware....

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 Jura   is a Vendor
 
 
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wkniemann View Post
I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

So that might be, say, 10 trading days when these apocalyptic things happens? What about the other 99.73% of the days? (assuming 250 market days per year, and the e-Mini S&P was introduced in 1997). And how do you determine these apocalyptic days in advance?

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  #7 (permalink)
 tgibbs 
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Ya I don't think we can out smart the governments stupidity. My game plan is to trade what works or what I think I can make work. I haven't seen historical data to support an apocalyptic style of crash like you mention and I always go by the saying that history repeats itself and that is what I base my trades on.

Now I will admit there is a lot of pixie dust be snorted in the ES but either way it is cycling like is always has so I'm going to trade it the way it will want to be traded.

What are your intentions? To day trade for a living? For just to invests long term? I guess I see you in conflict as most people are worried about the scenario you describe and therefore day trade but you want to day trade but only short for the long term reason.

Just my thoughts, take them for what they are worth

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 Zondor 
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 tigertrader 
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wkniemann View Post
Hello BigMike et al,

I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

Bill Niemann


and while you're at it, why don't you double down after each losing trade, because not unlike the martingale strategy, you would need an infinite amount of capital and time, for your suggested strategy to ever work

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  #10 (permalink)
 tgibbs 
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wkniemann View Post
Exchanges could even be shut down for days.

Kind of a thread drift a little but have the exchanges ever been shut down for days? Only thing I can think of is for Hurricane Sandy but that something that was known. Here is an article about weather and shutdowns A Timeline of Previous Market Shutdowns - MarketBeat - WSJ

Haven't found much on big news events though.

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 furytrader 
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Actually, this strategy (of only trading the ES from the short side intraday) may have some validity, completely removed from the perspective of trading imminent catastrophe.

Specifically, if you sum and compare:

1. The cumulative profit of buying the SPY* on the close of trading and selling at next day's open;
2. The cumulative profit of nuying the SPY at next day's open and selling it at the close.

* I use the SPY as a proxy for the intraday ES since it opens and closes at "normal" trading times.

Depending on your lookback period, you should see the #1 generates much more profit than #2. This doesn't mean that stocks don't go higher in phase 2, but that if you're going to take a short position, it's better to do when the NYSE is open then when it is closed.

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 tigertrader 
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furytrader View Post
Actually, this strategy (of only trading the ES from the short side intraday) may have some validity, completely removed from the perspective of trading imminent catastrophe.

Specifically, if you sum and compare:

1. The cumulative profit of buying the SPY* on the close of trading and selling at next day's open;
2. The cumulative profit of nuying the SPY at next day's open and selling it at the close.

* I use the SPY as a proxy for the intraday ES since it opens and closes at "normal" trading times.

Depending on your lookback period, you should see the #1 generates much more profit than #2. This doesn't mean that stocks don't go higher in phase 2, but that if you're going to take a short position, it's better to do when the NYSE is open then when it is closed.


see my post



nevertheless, the op's premise as originally stated, is inherently ridiculous

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 sptrader 
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tgibbs View Post
Kind of a thread drift a little but have the exchanges ever been shut down for days? Only thing I can think of is for Hurricane Sandy but that something that was known. Here is an article about weather and shutdowns A Timeline of Previous Market Shutdowns - MarketBeat - WSJ

Haven't found much on big news events though.

**********************************************************************
During 911 , the markets were closed for a few days, if I remember, so it can happen..but very rare.

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 josh 
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wkniemann View Post
I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

So you're saying that for intraday trading, a stop loss will be useless? How do you arrive at this (ridiculous) conclusion?

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 Silvester17 
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josh View Post
So you're saying that for intraday trading, a stop loss will be useless? How do you arrive at this (ridiculous) conclusion?

I think he / she means if disaster strikes and the market stops trading, then a stop loss would be useless.

if that would happen, of course it depends where your stop is. if not too far away you might get lucky and stopped out before the markets comes to a halt. with a large stop you might not...

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 Big Mike 
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Diversification is important if you want to talk about safety during a black swan event. Stop placement or long/short on any one product or position is really just a small portion of the equation.

Mike

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 tigertrader 
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 bnichols 
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"Safe" and "Futures" in the same sentence brings to mind Carley Garner's webinar on trading futures options .

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  #19 (permalink)
 grimReaper 
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So you're saying that for intraday trading, a stop loss will be useless? How do you arrive at this (ridiculous) conclusion?

Your stop can be jumped.

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 tgibbs 
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grimReaper View Post
Your stop can be jumped.

That doesn't make your stop useless though, typically it turns to market order and fills at a crappy price. What the OP is talking about, or the way I took it, is that whatever you are trading would slide so hard and fast that your stop wouldn't get filled even at a market offer. That's why I say for price to move there has to be buyers and sellers. Bid and ask may spread some and give crappy fills but I'm thinking a 50 tick move would be pretty major and that shouldn't clean out an account. But I have been wrong before

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 saikodi 
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wkniemann View Post
Hello BigMike et al,

I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

Bill Niemann

I am sorry for the sarcasm but seriously I thought I was dumb. It feels a lot better now.

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 josh 
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grimReaper View Post
Your stop can be jumped.

How so? The only thing I can figure is if the order is filled outside of the no-bust range, which for ES is 12 ticks to either side of the order, in which case the order can be busted.

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 Big Mike 
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Stop market order can jump in a fast moving market up to the threshold you specify or your platform specifies. I think for example NinjaTrader defaults to 4 ticks on a stop market.

On another note, CME has a "market order protection" scheme in which market orders will only fill if the spread is less than half of the maximum allowable daily range, I believe.

Generally speaking, all this discussion of orders is not how to be safe. You are safe by developing a smart portfolio and being diversified, not by choosing a particular order type or by trading only a single direction.

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 josh 
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Big Mike View Post
Stop market order can jump in a fast moving market up to the threshold you specify or your platform specifies. I think for example NinjaTrader defaults to 4 ticks on a stop market.

This would be a stop limit, not a stop market--stop market has no threshold allowances, only the guarantee on CME which you mentioned, that I mentioned earlier, the no bust range, which for ES is 3 handles (half the no-bust range of 6 handles).


Big Mike View Post
Generally speaking, all this discussion of orders is not how to be safe. You are safe by developing a smart portfolio and being diversified, not by choosing a particular order type or by trading only a single direction.

I agree Mike, but this is mainly applicable to traders who are holding positions at least overnight, and the OP is asking about intraday trading. I have only ever seen super massive moves in ES when a known news event like NFP is occurring and liquidity is guaranteed to be thin. For a genuine emergency, which is not known in advance, there is perhaps a sharp move down, but there should not be an immediate liquidity vacuum as traders and computers alike would not be synchronized with one another; in other words, ample time and liquidity for a stop to trigger as expected.

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 Big Mike 
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josh View Post
This would be a stop limit, not a stop market

Yes of course, it's been a very long day and I am doing too many things at once it seems

I didn't see your earlier reply on the CME no bust range.

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 Big Mike 
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josh View Post
I agree Mike, but this is mainly applicable to traders who are holding positions at least overnight, and the OP is asking about intraday trading. I have only ever seen super massive moves in ES when a known news event like NFP is occurring and liquidity is guaranteed to be thin. For a genuine emergency, which is not known in advance, there is perhaps a sharp move down, but there should not be an immediate liquidity vacuum as traders and computers alike would not be synchronized with one another; in other words, ample time and liquidity for a stop to trigger as expected.

Only need to go back to the May 2010 flash crash to see an intraday event. If your entire portfolio was in ES futures that day, you could have really been hurt. But if you traded 10 products each with lets say 10% allocation to keep it simple, the damage would have not been as bad, assuming you picked some uncorrelated markets.

Ernie Chan recently talked about this in-depth:
Webinar: Ernest Chan - Capital Allocation and Risk Management

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 grimReaper 
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tgibbs View Post
That doesn't make your stop useless though, typically it turns to market order and fills at a crappy price. What the OP is talking about, or the way I took it, is that whatever you are trading would slide so hard and fast that your stop wouldn't get filled even at a market offer. That's why I say for price to move there has to be buyers and sellers. Bid and ask may spread some and give crappy fills but I'm thinking a 50 tick move would be pretty major and that shouldn't clean out an account. But I have been wrong before

Market orders are protected on CME. Read more:
Market-With-Protection Order Definition | Investopedia
Globex No Bust Ranges


josh View Post
How so? The only thing I can figure is if the order is filled outside of the no-bust range, which for ES is 12 ticks to either side of the order, in which case the order can be busted.

Precisely, no bust. Say the bid book 3 points deep is 15k contracts and you have a 3 point stop. Catastrophic event X happens. Sophisticated traders cancel all bids, I'm guess by some automation via Bloomberg, leaving say 500 contracts of retail and slow or uninformed traders on the bid. This sparse liquidity disappears in milliseconds, and if you're not not filled (likely), you're now a limit order. But 1.5 seconds later when you realize what's going on and spit out your coffee, market's down 13.25 points and dropping. And this is assuming your feed and platform don't freeze.

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 Itchymoku 
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I've seen the market during the flash crash and similar events in the last few years. It's almost as if the market was 100 times normal speed in market replay. The price started to drop off in a parabolic shape giving you some time to get out, It didn't just randomly gap on one candle. TBH, As a day trader events like these can turn into fortunes if you use a stop loss without a preset limit in the direction of the move. Maybe someday price can make such a sharp jump who knows. I wouldn't suggest keeping all of your trading money in your trading account anyways. You should only keep what you need for marginal reasons and the rest can be parked elsewhere. If for whatever reason your stop got missed to the point your account got a margin call or worse that's really your brokerage's fault at that point.

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