Price action observations on the Mini Dow

January 19th, 2013, 11:51 AM

I have been observing price action on the \YM for a couple of months now and would like to share my observations on the futures.io (formerly BMT) forum. All opinions and suggestions are most welcome.

I look at the first 2.5 hours of the trading session mainly due to the timezone in my country. For PA, i'm studying Al Brook's Price Charts bar by bar book but i dont follow his method entirely; rather those which I find makes sense to me and which i understand.

This is not a journal as the focus will be on PA and not so much on other just as important aspects of trading like discipline, execution and emotion.

Some abbrevations which i use:

DT: downtrend, UT: uptrend, SW: sideways
TR: trading range, TTR: tight trading range
Doji: bar with a small body or no body
ut: upper tail, lt: lower tail
FT: follow-through
O/L: overlapping
BO: breakout
IB: inside bar, OB: outside bar

About the numbers on the chart:

Unless it is a setup, the numbers refer to a small cluster of bars near the number, rather than on a specific bar.

January 19th, 2013, 11:54 AM

*the aqua coloured line is a level on a higher timeframe (daily)

1. DT bar followed by a bear doji bar with ut. Looks weak. Possible FT to the downside

2. No downside FT. Price goes back up. Bars are overlapping and have tails. See it as a TR for now.

3. Price in a TTR. 2 prior failed breakouts. Price at the top of the TTR and no FT from an UT bar with a
close at the high (2 doji bars follow instead of a BO). Price may go back down to the TTR low

4. Price on the way down. DT bar with a close at the low. Likely to move back down to TTR low

5. Small bull IB at TTR low. Price does not bounce up and is flat instead. Possible BO to the downside

6. Downside BO with 5x bear bars. Also a 2nd leg down and is getting far below ema. Due to the bear strength,
it is preferable to wait for a second long entry. At this time, I am not sure whether to see the session as a downtrend or a TR. A few possibilities I thought of at the time:
-> if price goes up to the ema, see if it falls. A higher low may form OR a double bottom may form OR a lower low
may form
-> if price goes up to the ema and follows through, watch if the earlier TR high acts as resistance or if a new higher
high forms

7. 2 UT bars go up to and surpass the ema

8. 5x bear bars down from the ema. Possible double bottom. No sell at this level first. A bull doji IB follows
Selling is halted but the bull body is small. Could lead to a sideways move and could be a bear flag or a reversal.

Price action observations on the Mini Dow

Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Price action observations on the Mini Dow