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ES - falling knife


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ES - falling knife

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  #1 (permalink)
Europe
 
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Tell me, why are most traders looking at this downtrend developing, first, they are unable to short it and second when prices pull back a bit, their first idea is... maybe we got the low, where is the best place to go long or as most times... let me play the counter trend.

Why in god's name do we have this idiotic idea of always thinking in the opposite direction of the market movement?

There are days you are in sync but others... damn... how dumb can you be?





Does anyone have some pill or something that could make us stop being an ass and just go with the market and not trying to look at the opposite direction?

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  #3 (permalink)
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arnie View Post
Tell me, why are most traders looking at this downtrend developing, first, they are unable to short it and second when prices pull back a bit, their first idea is... maybe we got the low, where is the best place to go long or as most times... let me play the counter trend.

Why in god's name do we have this idiotic idea of always thinking in the opposite direction of the market movement?

There are days you are in sync but others... damn... how dumb can you be?





Does anyone have some pill or something that could make us stop being an ass and just go with the market and not trying to look at the opposite direction?

I am always looking for pullbacks and my system happens to be right more than 80% of the time, just like the ratio Non trading days/trading days, that means 20% of the time my system is an idiot, all I need is try to reduce my risk with an edeguate stop. My point from your OP is it all depends on which side of the trade you are, I guess for trend followers that doesn't make much sense but there are many ways to be profitable.

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Question of context, we are trading within the range of Yesterday's RTH session. Fade the extremes.

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  #5 (permalink)
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arnie View Post
Tell me, why are most traders looking at this downtrend developing, first, they are unable to short it and second when prices pull back a bit, their first idea is... maybe we got the low, where is the best place to go long or as most times... let me play the counter trend.

Why in god's name do we have this idiotic idea of always thinking in the opposite direction of the market movement?

There are days you are in sync but others... damn... how dumb can you be?





Does anyone have some pill or something that could make us stop being an ass and just go with the market and not trying to look at the opposite direction?

No mention of yesterday when the ES was down 25 points and rallied 16 points the rest of the day? What color pill should have been taken for that?

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  #6 (permalink)
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I have a "thing" regards context because context is based in what we are seeing.

Anais Nin said it best - "We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are".

Context most of the times is based in all the junk we have between our ears which ultimately will kill us in the end. Before you rely on context you must clean all that junk and unfortunately, cleaning 10 years of junk has not been easy.

Pullbacks has always been my thing. I've been taught looking at pullbacks to measure the health of a trend. The shortest the pull, the healthier the trend (ie. momentum is being built and prices might accelerate), the longest the pull, the trend might have ended or near its end.
While this was quite profitable using daily charts, on intraday charts things have not been that easy. This type of reading just don't work with intraday charts. Most of the times I'm late getting in ending up being stopped out.

But the worst is when you look at it, you read buy, prices reverse against you, you get stopped out, you see that momentum is down, every pull is being, in this case, shorted and you continue with the first reading in your head, BUY!!!

In the end of the day, you revise your trades, look at the chart and in hindsight you say to yourself how dumb can you be, all you need is in front of you. How in god's name you get blind during market hours and cannot see what is in front of your eyes? Why during market hours what you see is that 10 year "junk" but outside markets hours that "junk" is cleared out and you see things has they really are and not as you are.

Damn psychology, it's draining my energy a bit every day...

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  #7 (permalink)
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It's the psychology of wanting a bargain.

We naturally want to buy low and sell high, because we love a bargain. When we see empty space on the screen, we normally don't think "it could go more extreme", BUT if I enter now, it's a great bargain. And it is, compared to people who entered at a worse price though that's besides the point. It's pissing against the wind, because we want to feel how smart we are.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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Anagami View Post
It's the psychology of wanting a bargain.

We naturally want to buy low and sell high, because we love a bargain. When we see empty space on the screen, we normally don't think "it could go more extreme", BUT if I enter now, it's a great bargain. And it is, compared to people who entered at a worse price though that's besides the point. It's pissing against the wind, because we want to feel how smart we are.

I buy high and sell higher. Buy low and sell lower. I blew two accounts years ago trying to pick bottoms. It is my natural inclination but enough pain and I changed my ways.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #9 (permalink)
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liquidcci View Post
I buy high and sell higher. Buy low and sell lower. I blew two accounts years ago trying to pick bottoms. It is my natural inclination but enough pain and I changed my ways.

I'm familiar with both schools of thought... each has its place.

The crucial thing is not to trade according to one's cognitive bias (if anything, against it).

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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arnie View Post
Tell me, why are most traders looking at this downtrend developing, first, they are unable to short it and second when prices pull back a bit, their first idea is... maybe we got the low, where is the best place to go long or as most times... let me play the counter trend.

Why in god's name do we have this idiotic idea of always thinking in the opposite direction of the market movement?

There are days you are in sync but others... damn... how dumb can you be?





Does anyone have some pill or something that could make us stop being an ass and just go with the market and not trying to look at the opposite direction?

We just have to follow our trading systems that tell us when to buy in down trend and use no more that 2 attempts of catching the reversal I think...

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