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ES Unfair Advantage


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ES Unfair Advantage

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 dario1 
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"Nothing splendid has ever been achieved except by those who dared believe that something inside them was superior to circumstance." Bruce Barton




This will be a "work in progress" post as we progress on the work! We have an area of bare ground in the ES market that has to be truly understand.

Certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement. This is why I've started this thread to see if other traders noticed similar market behaviour. Also, I'll post trade examples to convey the message.

So traders, I'd like to hear from you. Discussion is vital -- without it, there will be no progress
Reply below and let me know what do you think, and please correct me if I'm wrong.


All hours are in Eastern Time (ET)

6:00PM Global Market starts

6:00PM - 8:00PM
market usually slow -- develops its trading range

8:00PM - 10:00PM
price volatility is expected due to opening of the Asian markets

10:00PM - 12:00AM
no input yet

12:00AM - 2:30AM
market usually slow

2:15AM - 3:00AM Pre- London Market
resumption of the overall night’s trend


3:00AM - 4:30AM
Europe morning move


4:30AM - 6:30AM
price volatility is expected due to opening of the European markets


6:30AM - 6:59AM
market usually slow


7:00AM - 9:30AM
pre- US market opening volatility
sometime depends on the early key news or leak of the succeeding news
be careful, one can get fleeced very easily


9:25AM - 9:35AM
US market opens -- sometimes huge volatility


9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day (!!!)
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day

If trend/bias cannot be readily distinguished please use the 10:00-10:45AM Morning Move as a daily trend reference.


10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.
in other words: expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
– expect either:
1) A counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 10:00am to just before 10:45am, or
2) A resumption of the of the NY Opening Hour Move


11:45AM - 12:45PM Lunch Move
any volatile move very rarely emerges during this time
-- take a break that's what lunch time is all about -- regenerate for the afternoon session


12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN off the high of the day, or
2)the overall trend is DOWN and the market is trading UP off the low of the day.


2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
– expect either:
1)A resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm, or
2)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect either:
1)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend, OR
2)A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day in an uptrend or up off the low of the day in a downtrend
--in other words expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm


3:30PM - 4:16PM Closing Hour Move
Expect rally if...


3:50PM - 4:00PM NY market closing volatility -- sometimes huge


4:30PM - 6:00PM
market usually slow



Traders!
I'd like to hear from you guys.
Reply below and let me know what do you think?

Bear in mind, traders are the only force that can act on prices to make them move and if more of them will be willing to follow the particular moves the higher the probability of the market momentum to shift in their direction. (there're exceptions such as the Big Boyz -- )
cheers

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 dario1 
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The evening ES market (roughly until 20:00) is usually very slow(?)
true or false

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 GridKing 
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Sometimes communication is difficult through the webs so maybe I am not connecting, what happened to your last journal?

I don't get the true or false deal... it seems like you are asking as if you are dangling a joint @kbit

If you are asking seriously , it depends, today is the day prior to a shortened holiday , probably snail pace ...

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GridKing View Post
what happened to your last journal?

It was deleted because of the content of the first post (vendor advertisement), and because he was quoting people from all other threads and posting the quotes in his thread in order to bump his thread.

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 dario1 
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GridKing View Post
Sometimes communication is difficult through the webs so maybe I am not connecting, what happened to your last journal?

I don't get the true or false deal... it seems like you are asking as if you are dangling a joint @kbit

If you are asking seriously , it depends, today is the day prior to a shortened holiday , probably snail pace ...

Yes I asking seriously. Maybe that’s me but I find the evening market quite slow until 20:00PM or 20:20PM (HK)
Also I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement. This is why I posted that controversial PDF file E-mini Unfair Advantage to see if other traders noticed similar market behavior.
thanks

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 GridKing 
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Yeah 'cause we forgot the name ... some never learn

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 dario1 
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OK, so when HK market opens (I believe is 8:20PM -- correct me if I'm wrong) one can expect:
a) resumption of the overall day’s trend (NY session)
or
b) the counter move
thanks

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 kbit 
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GridKing View Post
Sometimes communication is difficult through the webs so maybe I am not connecting, what happened to your last journal?

I don't get the true or false deal... it seems like you are asking as if you are dangling a joint @kbit

If you are asking seriously , it depends, today is the day prior to a shortened holiday , probably snail pace ...

I don't know what your talking about...I don't even know what I posted in this chopped up thread.

 
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 dario1 
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kbit View Post
I don't know what your talking about...I don't even know what I posted in this chopped up thread.


What I remember you gave me your comment and a good advice that I've posted in the beginning of this thread (don't put order on both sides)

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 Beljevina 
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dario1 View Post
The evening ES market (roughly until 20:00) is usually very slow(?)
true or false

Usually, yes. But, from the NY cash close, to here, it can easily move 3 points. Given some NY cash market days are a 6 point range, I guess it depends how you define slow, and what your patience level is.

Unless of course, it is one of those days where 1) the market is in earnings release mode, to react to exceeds or misses 2) JP Morgan announces a $2B bad trade [which moved ES 11 points from 4:05 to 5pm, and then more afterwards 3) any number of other unforecastable reasons



dario1 View Post
OK, so when HK market opens (I believe is 8:20PM -- correct me if I'm wrong) one can expect:
a) resumption of the overall day’s trend (NY session)
or
b) the counter move

I don't think anyone can answer that with certainty. Do recall that during the day ES moves in relation to the S&P 500 cash index, meaning the basket of stocks it is representing. During globex, they do not trade. So, ES moves in sympathy with global equity indexes, stocks, risk, and any other news related events, that the algo masters have programmed as part of the algo scan.

Coming up with a definitive answer to your question is impossible. Was the previous US session reacting to a bad Europe or Asia session? Are global markets in sync? Did Asia already react to the NY session? Were there news events between the NY close and Asian open? Where is ES in relation to the day's pivot, point, the VWAP, yesterday's VWAP, etc? Given AUDUSD and AUDJPY are usually tightly correlated to ES and US indexes, what about those spot currency movements? What did the big boys do on the ES 4pm close? Did they soak up supply and buy more? Are there rate decisions or other significant news items due from China/Australia/Japan, etc? (often @ 9:30pm EST) Why did you choose 8:xx pm (EST) as a turning point ? I actually find it a largely irrelevant time. (And I tend to trade Asia, lol) What about 9pm when the remainder of Asian markets open? What about the day of week factor? What if NFP is forthcoming from NY in the morning?

My point is, there are so many other factors, combined with the fact that the mothership to the ES is not trading, that asking this question and making predictions centered around a specific time, isn't really worth it. Sure, the exact answer to your question can be statistically determined, but, without trade context (and no insight into those other things i mentioned above) I would not find the data or answer meaningful. IMO, studying the chart(s), and having a decent (great) understanding of global intermarket relationships is more key.

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 dario1 
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Beljevina View Post
Usually, yes. But, from the NY cash close, to here, it can easily move 3 points. Given some NY cash market days are a 6 point range, I guess it depends how you define slow, and what your patience level is.

Unless of course, it is one of those days where 1) the market is in earnings release mode, to react to exceeds or misses 2) JP Morgan announces a $2B bad trade [which moved ES 11 points from 4:05 to 5pm, and then more afterwards 3) any number of other unforecastable reasons

I don't think anyone can answer that with certainty. Do recall that during the day ES moves in relation to the S&P 500 cash index, meaning the basket of stocks it is representing. During globex, they do not trade. So, ES moves in sympathy with global equity indexes, stocks, risk, and any other news related events, that the algo masters have programmed as part of the algo scan.

Coming up with a definitive answer to your question is impossible. Was the previous US session reacting to a bad Europe or Asia session? Are global markets in sync? Did Asia already react to the NY session? Were there news events between the NY close and Asian open? Where is ES in relation to the day's pivot, point, the VWAP, yesterday's VWAP, etc? Given AUDUSD and AUDJPY are usually tightly correlated to ES and US indexes, what about those spot currency movements? What did the big boys do on the ES 4pm close? Did they soak up supply and buy more? Are there rate decisions or other significant news items due from China/Australia/Japan, etc? (often @ 9:30pm EST) Why did you choose 8:xx pm (EST) as a turning point ? I actually find it a largely irrelevant time. (And I tend to trade Asia, lol) What about 9pm when the remainder of Asian markets open? What about the day of week factor? What if NFP is forthcoming from NY in the morning?

My point is, there are so many other factors, combined with the fact that the mothership to the ES is not trading, that asking this question and making predictions centered around a specific time, isn't really worth it. Sure, the exact answer to your question can be statistically determined, but, without trade context (and no insight into those other things i mentioned above) I would not find the data or answer meaningful. IMO, studying the chart(s), and having a decent (great) understanding of global intermarket relationships is more key.



I really enjoyed your answer. And yes as you've mentioned there are a lot of other factors. Regarding your question, I've traded gold during the evening hours and many times there was a correlation between HK open and Singapore open for example.
BTW, I don't expect much movement during the tonight session. I think the rage is already established between 1356 and 1360
thank you for your post.

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 dario1 
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so far I'm long, but I'm kinda doubting myself now

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 dario1 
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This is a really nasty market tonight -- I don't think I've a stomach for this
-- oh maybe not --its movig in my direction

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 dario1 
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part of me want to exit and the other to stay until 1360

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Is this thread to be a trading journal? If so it needs to be moved to the right location.

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 dario1 
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This thread is about the ES unfair advantage with the trade examples to convey the message

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 dario1 
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dario1 View Post
I don't expect much movement during the tonight session. I think the rage is already established between 1356 and 1360

I'm too tired to baby-sit this one-- taking 2pt profit though -- I was to greedy
But it has a potential to go to 1360+
good night

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 dario1 
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big overnight moves usually start after 3:00AM when Europe opens
true or false

-- closed overnight trade

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 dario1 
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is ES turned upside?
-- after that reversal yesterday I think the upside is in play (I'm long)
but don’t follow me I lost a lot of money last year

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 dario1 
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If today will be a low volume day --be careful
Big boys do anything to scare you and shakeout the weak positions
its already starting see attached

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 dario1 
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dario1 View Post
If today will be a low volume day --be careful
Big boys do anything to scare you and shakeout the weak positions
its already starting see attached

Anyone tracking intraday volume -- any change relative to yesterday or before yesterday

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 dario1 
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dario1 View Post
From yesterday: I don't expect much movement during the tonight session. I think the rage is already established between 1356 and 1360


ok we have the same situation as yesterday with even tighter channel (3pt) from 1366.25 to 1369.5
hope this helps with your trading

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 dario1 
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dario1 View Post
ok we have the same situation as yesterday with even tighter channel (3pt) from 1366.25 to 1369.5

the market has to break that channel
if break above 1370 than 1400 will be in play
If break below 1366 than 1355 is the next support line

hope this helps

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 dario1 
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I wake up today with a huge headache and one of my rules that I follow is to never trade when felling sick, tired or emotionally not well.

Still, if I would trade today I'll look at those areas (correct me if I'm wtong)
resistance: 1369-1371
support line: 1363.75

let me know if you find this valuable. As you too I would like to be a better trader and discussion is the key.

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 Fadi 
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Agree with your resistance and support figures, have virtually the same levels marked on my chart.
But today the market is dead dude, not worth trading

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 dario1 
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7:00 - 9:30
pre- US market opening volatility
sometime depends on the early key news or leak of the succeeding news
be careful, one can get fleeced very easily

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 Fadi 
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yes :-)

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 dario1 
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OK let see how this will play out tonight (???)
And it's July 4 (typo in the heading)

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 dario1 
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Looks like we have our support for tonight @ 1363.75
I'm hoping for a pullback as my long wasn't filled

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 dario1 
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part of me want to chase that market but not today, some days (especially holidays) are just to slow to trade.
--but I still believe it has up sight potential for tonight

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 dario1 
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Mike, is there a way to delete the duplicate post placed by mistake without involving you.

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 Big Mike 
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dario1 View Post
This thread is about the ES unfair advantage with the trade examples to convey the message

I'm trying to understand what you are doing.

You say you have no trading experience, you say this isn't a journal and that you are going to teach a methodology. You are commenting every few minutes while you are in trades where you are less than confident about your trade decisions, and asking questions like whether or not volume is less on a holiday.

What have I missed? Are you a vendor? Are you here to sell something? Are you associated with a vendor in any way?

I encourage traders to start journals in order to improve their trading and am all for you doing that. That is where I am getting hung up here, because this looks like a journal, yet you say it isn't - that you are teaching a methodology, but your actions aren't in sync.

Please clarify exactly what your intention is (in detail) with this thread.

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dario1 View Post
Mike, is there a way to delete the duplicate post placed by mistake without involving you.

Click edit, advanced, delete.

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I'm trying to understand what you are doing.

You say you have no trading experience, you say this isn't a journal and that you are going to teach a methodology. You are commenting every few minutes while you are in trades where you are less than confident about your trade decisions, and asking questions like whether or not volume is less on a holiday.

What have I missed? Are you a vendor? Are you here to sell something? Are you associated with a vendor in any way?

I encourage traders to start journals in order to improve their trading and am all for you doing that. That is where I am getting hung up here, because this looks like a journal, yet you say it isn't - that you are teaching a methodology, but your actions aren't in sync.

Please clarify exactly what your intention is (in detail) with this thread.

Thank you,
Mike


First, you are overreacting. Based on your past experience your perception is telling you that I'm a vendor -- which I'm not. So far I can classify myself as a looser, because I never recover the money I lost when I started trading futures in late August and early September in 2011.
(And the loss was huge -- I'm still dealing with the mental damage that this caused. While I can make consistent profit on SIM, I'm not only afraid, I'm tormented to push the button on my live account -- looking for excuses not to. And believe me my personal life is not so good too because of that.)

Than in October/November my Broker MF Global went bankrupt. After recovering some of my money I've sign up with IB in January -- (and of course I lost more money). By IB standards the trader trading less than one year have no experience. So I have no experience. And this is true because in trading it is far easier to know what to do, than to actually do it, It comes with the experience.

Now, I never said that I'm teaching a methodology-- I'm a student with overpaid tuition that love to learn. I only stated in my first post that certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day.

Since mid of October 2011, I've observed price movement of gold, silver, and now ES (at least 10-12 hours a day during the different times slots, and with many all-nighters too) and I believe there is correlations between the price move and the time of the day. This is why by opening this thread I was hoping that maybe other traders have noticed similar market behaviour.

There is no conspiracy here just pure research.
Thank you
Dario

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First, you are overreacting. Based on your past experience your perception is telling you that I'm a vendor -- which I'm not. So far I can classify myself as a looser, because I never recover the money I lost when I started trading futures in late August and early September in 2011.
(And the loss was huge -- I'm still dealing with the mental damage that this caused. While I can make consistent profit on SIM, I'm not only afraid, I'm tormented to push the button on my live account -- looking for excuses not to. And believe me my personal life is not so good too because of that.)

Than in October/November my Broker MF Global went bankrupt. After recovering some of my money I've sign up with IB in January -- (and of course I lost more money). By IB standards the trader trading less than one year have no experience. So I have no experience. And this is true because in trading it is far easier to know what to do, than to actually do it, It comes with the experience.

Now, I never said that I'm teaching a methodology-- I'm a student with overpaid tuition that love to learn. I only stated in my first post that certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day.

Since mid of October 2011, I've observed price movement of gold, silver, and now ES (at least 10-12 hours a day during the different times slots, and with many all-nighters too) and I believe there is correlations between the price move and the time of the day. This is why by opening this thread I was hoping that maybe other traders have noticed similar market behaviour.

There is no conspiracy here just pure research.
Thank you
Dario

OK, that would classify this as a trading journal. So I am going to move it to the right section, and wish you luck.

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OK, that would classify this as a trading journal. So I am going to move it to the right section, and wish you luck.

Mike

Thank you - I really need it.
Also, due to your established rules quote: "The administrator has specified that you can only edit messages for 1440 minutes after you have posted. This limit has expired"
Would it be possible for me to continuously update my first post as it is work in progress post.
Thanks
Dario

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dario1 View Post
Thank you - I really need it.
Also, due to your established rules quote: "The administrator has specified that you can only edit messages for 1440 minutes after you have posted. This limit has expired"
Would it be possible for me to continuously update my first post as it is work in progress post.
Thanks
Dario

You can edit post #1 indefinitely, so long as there are no attachments. You can also use post #2.

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This book might be worth a look


The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist

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7:00 - 9:30AM
pre- US market opening volatility
sometime depends on the early key news or leak of the succeeding news
be careful, one can get fleeced very easily

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– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.

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– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.

I think the morning run up is over

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I think that previous support @ 1350 area become a nice resistance now (2X)
--I'm short from 1348.25

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From the archives (June 29, 2012)

10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.

1:00PM to 2:00PM Post-lunch move:
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend

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As long as these algorithms are developed by humans we have a good chance or even advantage!
D

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Can anyone shed some light on the gap on SPY that happened late June?
thanks

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 Beljevina 
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Can anyone shed some light on the gap on SPY that happened late June?
thanks

You might want to include a chart when asking about SPY (or anything), as few trade SPY around here.

I'm assuming it's a spider and doesn't trade during globex? If so, is the (before) gap June 28? If so, it was due to the late night (2:30am) Brussels news conference and announcements by Van Rompuy & Juncker on the latest fix/infusion for Europe - EURUSD moved from 1.242 to 1.268 by the time NY peaked it - the optimism on yet another 'euro fix' caused risk on for that time. After that, it went straight down. Compare the 2 charts on the same timeframe, and that will likely be it.

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The bearish wedge formation and the broken up-sloping trend line

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Anyone!
Is today’s high could be considered as a Double Top?
thanks

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 Fadi 
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Not a real double top, but a significant high.
Connect the high of 2007 to the high of 2012 and you fall right on the high of today's action on the S&P500 index.
This is an important tag, and technically, we shall start an important down move now.

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Fadi View Post
Not a real double top, but a significant high.
Connect the high of 2007 to the high of 2012 and you fall right on the high of today's action on the S&P500 index.
This is an important tag, and technically, we shall start an important down move now.


thanks, that's a good insight -- I'm waiting for this up party to be over so I can short it with all I’ve got.
-- knowing my luck it will probably happen when I’ll be away from my computer during the trip Wed-Fri

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Well, I personally shorted the ES at 1403$ today...

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Fadi View Post
Well, I personally shorted the ES at 1403$ today...

So far looks favourable, hope it works out for you,
I think it will go bit higher but i was wrong many times
D

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I think ES is poised to go up -- On 15 minute chart at 16:45pm we had a doji and sweetspot low and now another one is developing

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anyone, is the 1394 will hold or should we look at 92 or 90

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 Big Mike 
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dario1 View Post
anyone, is the 1394 will hold or should we look at 92 or 90

The main SP500 thread is here:


This is a trading journal, so is more about your trades and less about a discussion of the market.

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ok, market was consolidating when I was away. I'm still long from Tuesday night (Aug 7) @ $1,395 -- roughly the same as today

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-- I’ll be away from my computer during the trip Wed-Fri

I was automatically (after 24 hours) disconnected from IB and lost my feed for all my time frames... but somehow only range bars work

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ok, market was consolidating when I was away. I'm still long from Tuesday night (Aug 7) @ $1,395 -- roughly the same as today

Prior Day Summary
Open 1398.50
High 1403.75
Low 1393.75
Close 1400.50
Range 10.00

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 dario1 
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ok, we are roughly at $1,395 -- I'm just wondering if in a few days/weeks we will consider the $1395 as a bargain!!!

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 dario1 
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August 10, 2012 Friday

Key news:
08:30 Import Prices (USD)
14:00 Federal Budget Balance (USD)

Pivots for today:
R3 1413.75
R2 1409.33
R1 1404.91
PP 1399.33
S1 1394.91
S2 1389.33
S3 1384.91

Volume TPO
VAH 1401.75 1401.50
POC 1400.50 1400.00
VAL 1398.25 1398.50

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 dario1 
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who said that lately:

are they long or short the es?

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 Gary 
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who said that lately:

are they long or short the es?

BigMike ?

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 dario1 
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excellent!
--always focused, no wonder you're a Market Wizard

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 dario1 
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I'm still loading my data, but I have a feeling that today we'll have a copy of the past few days

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 dario1 
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I'm still loading my data,


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I have a feeling that today we'll have a copy of the past few days

although today lunch time could be very surprising

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although today lunch time could be very surprising

btw, I'm still long

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 dario1 
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ok, we are roughly at $1,395 -- I'm just wondering if in a few days/weeks we will consider the $1395 as a bargain!!!

Does anyone else have any opinion on it?

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 Fadi 
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Does anyone else have any opinion on it?

We are going down town charlie brown ;-)
It is just a matter of time... tighten your stop if you are still long; I would be on the opposite side by now.

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 dario1 
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We are going down town charlie brown ;-)
It is just a matter of time... tighten your stop if you are still long; I would be on the opposite side by now.


good to hear from you
but I believe there will be a huge spike up in a near time before the real one down

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 dario1 
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2k thank you all

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 Fadi 
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Yeah we might see a spike next week, but I am maintaining my shorts from 1403$ for the longer play

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 dario1 
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ES closed @ 1,402.25
It's weekly close -- has to be higher -- nothing unusual
nice weekend to all

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 Fadi 
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ES closed @ 1,402.25
It's weekly close -- has to be higher -- nothing unusual
nice weekend to all

Sure :-)
Just be careful for next week, it is option expiry and institutions do normally play games to shake out all the puts and calls they sold uncovered...

Would surely be a wild week in terms of volatility, be safe

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Sure :-)
it is option expiry and institutions do normally play games to shake out all the puts and calls they sold uncovered...

Would surely be a wild week in terms of volatility, be safe

Cheers
F

I know, kind of a guessing game for all of us

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 dario1 
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Fadi View Post
it is option expiry and institutions do normally play games to shake out all the puts and calls they sold uncovered...



dario1 View Post
kind of a guessing game for all of us

-- but it doesn't have to be -- knowing where the Big Boyz want the price to be could work to our advantage.

Anyone with the options experience, can u plz check at what price point Big Boyz would like ES to be for settling their open positions.
thx

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 Fadi 
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-- but it doesn't have to be -- knowing where the Big Boyz want the price to be could work to our advantage.

Anyone with the options experience, can u plz check at what price point Big Boyz would like ES to be for settling their open positions.
thx

Around 1375$

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 dario1 
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Around 1375$

We also need to know the Put/Call Ratio to establish the first wave of the market direction.
D

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 dario1 
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In regards to the price point that Big Boyz have in mind they will first clear out the options by dropping the value and destroying the premium---than buying them back and letting price come back up----then down again…

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Big Boyz will first clear out the options by dropping the value and destroying the premium---than buying them back and letting price come back up----then down again…


This is a standard maneuver that we could use to our advantage.
All we need is the price point that the Big Boyz would like ES to be for settling their open positions and the Put/Call Ratio.
cheers

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$1,375


Let's say Big Boyz have the same number in mind; so next week at some point in time we should expect a low around this level. -- minus few pt of course -- depends of the traders who will have market stop orders

I'm still learning the ES behaviour but in gold I've witnessed a 10-20 pt slippage during such moves -- see @ Is ES market manipulated?

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we're in a downward move

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It was a nice run up overnight
were you surprise? -- let me know
D

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I went against what the market was telling me and instead went with what my expectations of the market were at 7:45AM. and went Long 1,403.

… than when market went down … I panicked and exited -- lost 4pt.

Lesson: I should manage my personal filters better so I can see more clearly what market has to offer.

Hope this helps other traders

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Lesson: I should manage my personal filters better so I can see more clearly what market has to offer.

Hey I just realized this could be a good thread.

It will be about how to manage ourselves, our personal filters, and control our perception, so we can see more effectively of what the market is telling us, for example when to when to get in and when to get out.

Mike is this new thread is ok with you -- I just don't want to receive another warning from you.
Btw, I searched Emotional Intelligence on your website with zero results
D

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Question for all the traders who have shorted ES last week.

Are you still in?
Where were your stops? -- any slippage?
thanks

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Emotional Intelligence

Thread exists here:


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Hey Fadi, are you still in?

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Hey Fadi, are you still in?

Yes, no worries.
I am playing for a longer term that a couple of days.

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Yes, no worries.
I am playing for a longer term that a couple of days.

good to hear
that was a wild swing up last might

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good to hear
that was a wild swing up last might

Not real wild.
If you check how much they had to drop the dollar, we should have been up double digit on the ES... but we barely gained 5 points to 1407.75$. This reassures me on my longer term short position.

Also, today, tomorrow and thursday we shall see an increased volatility in the market, and increased trading volume as yesterday was the lightest day of the year.

So this would bring some selling... Will watch and see today's action, then evaluate whether I continue to hold or cover my position.

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Monitoring $ is a good idea -- gold, $, ES, all correlated.

I'm following US dollar correlation too but to Canadian $ --and so far there was a little movement.
thx

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Well since you are trading the ES on US markets, I'd say you follow the DX then.
They work inverse to each others.

Keep the VIX on your radar too; it will show you fear sentiment and how it correlates to price action.
Comes handy at time :-) and I also monitor CL and GC of course for the full picture.

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I think the market is preparing for another swing up
any comments

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I've posted this in https://%20futures.io/index-futures-trading/22280-where-will-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-year-now.html but I didn't get any response due to low traffic.

Anyone has a seasonal fluctuation in ES chart for the past 10-20 yrs, similar to the one I've included for gold?
thanks

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The main SP500 discussion thread is here:


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The main SP500 discussion thread is here:
sp500-spoo-nalysis.html

Mike

Oh yes I've tried there, but if my posts are ignored, at least they're here for easy access

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Patience is a virtue

Today I’ve listen what the market want to tell me and went short
And, at the end of the day small profit

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my indicators are bit mixed
but, I think ES is going up now -- I'm long already from $1,400.5

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