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ES Unfair Advantage


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ES Unfair Advantage

  #1 (permalink)
Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
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dario1's Avatar
 
Posts: 405 since Jan 2012

ES Unfair Advantage

"Nothing splendid has ever been achieved except by those who dared believe that something inside them was superior to circumstance." Bruce Barton




This will be a "work in progress" post as we progress on the work! We have an area of bare ground in the ES market that has to be truly understand.

Certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement. This is why I've started this thread to see if other traders noticed similar market behaviour. Also, I'll post trade examples to convey the message.

So traders, I'd like to hear from you. Discussion is vital -- without it, there will be no progress
Reply below and let me know what do you think, and please correct me if I'm wrong.


All hours are in Eastern Time (ET)

6:00PM Global Market starts

6:00PM - 8:00PM
market usually slow -- develops its trading range

8:00PM - 10:00PM
price volatility is expected due to opening of the Asian markets

10:00PM - 12:00AM
no input yet

12:00AM - 2:30AM
market usually slow

2:15AM - 3:00AM Pre- London Market
resumption of the overall night’s trend


3:00AM - 4:30AM
Europe morning move


4:30AM - 6:30AM
price volatility is expected due to opening of the European markets


6:30AM - 6:59AM
market usually slow


7:00AM - 9:30AM
pre- US market opening volatility
sometime depends on the early key news or leak of the succeeding news
be careful, one can get fleeced very easily


9:25AM - 9:35AM
US market opens -- sometimes huge volatility


9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day (!!!)
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day

If trend/bias cannot be readily distinguished please use the 10:00-10:45AM Morning Move as a daily trend reference.


10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.
in other words: expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
– expect either:
1) A counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 10:00am to just before 10:45am, or
2) A resumption of the of the NY Opening Hour Move


11:45AM - 12:45PM Lunch Move
any volatile move very rarely emerges during this time
-- take a break that's what lunch time is all about -- regenerate for the afternoon session


12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN off the high of the day, or
2)the overall trend is DOWN and the market is trading UP off the low of the day.


2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
– expect either:
1)A resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm, or
2)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect either:
1)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend, OR
2)A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day in an uptrend or up off the low of the day in a downtrend
--in other words expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm


3:30PM - 4:16PM Closing Hour Move
Expect rally if...


3:50PM - 4:00PM NY market closing volatility -- sometimes huge


4:30PM - 6:00PM
market usually slow



Traders!
I'd like to hear from you guys.
Reply below and let me know what do you think?

Bear in mind, traders are the only force that can act on prices to make them move and if more of them will be willing to follow the particular moves the higher the probability of the market momentum to shift in their direction. (there're exceptions such as the Big Boyz --
)
cheers


Last edited by dario1; September 6th, 2012 at 02:19 PM. Reason: update

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  #3 (permalink)
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true or false


The evening ES market (roughly until 20:00) is usually very slow(?)
true or false

 
  #4 (permalink)
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Sometimes communication is difficult through the webs so maybe I am not connecting, what happened to your last journal?

I don't get the true or false deal... it seems like you are asking as if you are dangling a joint @kbit

If you are asking seriously , it depends, today is the day prior to a shortened holiday , probably snail pace ...

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  #5 (permalink)
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GridKing View Post
what happened to your last journal?

It was deleted because of the content of the first post (vendor advertisement), and because he was quoting people from all other threads and posting the quotes in his thread in order to bump his thread.

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  #6 (permalink)
Ontario, Canada
 
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GridKing View Post
Sometimes communication is difficult through the webs so maybe I am not connecting, what happened to your last journal?

I don't get the true or false deal... it seems like you are asking as if you are dangling a joint @kbit

If you are asking seriously , it depends, today is the day prior to a shortened holiday , probably snail pace ...

Yes I asking seriously. Maybe thatís me but I find the evening market quite slow until 20:00PM or 20:20PM (HK)
Also I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement. This is why I posted that controversial PDF file E-mini Unfair Advantage to see if other traders noticed similar market behavior.
thanks

 
  #7 (permalink)
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Yeah 'cause we forgot the name ... some never learn

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
  #8 (permalink)
Ontario, Canada
 
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Posts: 405 since Jan 2012

OK, so when HK market opens (I believe is 8:20PM -- correct me if I'm wrong) one can expect:
a) resumption of the overall dayís trend (NY session)
or
b) the counter move
thanks

 
  #9 (permalink)
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GridKing View Post
Sometimes communication is difficult through the webs so maybe I am not connecting, what happened to your last journal?

I don't get the true or false deal... it seems like you are asking as if you are dangling a joint @kbit

If you are asking seriously , it depends, today is the day prior to a shortened holiday , probably snail pace ...

I don't know what your talking about...I don't even know what I posted in this chopped up thread.

 
  #10 (permalink)
Ontario, Canada
 
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kbit View Post
I don't know what your talking about...I don't even know what I posted in this chopped up thread.


What I remember you gave me your comment and a good advice that I've posted in the beginning of this thread (don't put order on both sides)


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