As per post#168 I would like to find out if the market really moves the way I described in my post #1 where I've stated that certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and the price movement. This is why I've started this thread. Same as other members of your futures.io (formerly BMT) forum to study of materials and sources in order to establish facts and reach new conclusions to make us better traders.
dario
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.
(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend
(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
As I've posted before I’m recently focusing only on the 5 moves that I’ve described in the post #1.
a) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
b) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
c) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch move
d) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
e) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
--but the move was so obvious that I had to included it in this analysis.
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias) No move
(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm
(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend
09:00 Final Manufacturing PMI (USD)
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
From Bloomberg:
-- European leaders are stepping up shuttle diplomacy this week as they
brace for their central banker’s plan to defend the euro from bond-market
turmoil.
- The yen strengthened against higher- yielding currencies such as the
Australian and New Zealand dollars as signs the global economic
slowdown is deepening boosted demand for safer assets.
- The pound rose toward a three-month high against the dollar after an
industry report showed U.K. manufacturing shrank less than economists
forecast, damping speculation the Bank of England will increase monetary
stimulus.
ok, we all know that ES is about to sink -- not only from the technical point of view but also temporal -- we are entering the fall season and typically September/October wasn't very kind to ES.
Further, the current up trend doesn't really reflect reality of the economy too.
So if this all is true and we all know it -- why at the end 95 % of us will loose money?
--just a thought for today
Why? -> emotions
But also because most cannot wait, no patience, also often these same people bet the farm and end up with tons of margin calls that accumulate as they wait for the fall
They will be squeezed out of their positions, only to watch the market fall the next day.
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
The following user says Thank You to Fadi for this post:
Based on the scheduled news i.e. 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI we should expect a nice counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move just around 10:00am
-- Let see if this will hold water today.
@Fadi
Thanks and yes, you’re absolutely right
I’ll also add lack of good and tested (over and over again) working plan and the discipline to follow it.
If one has a good working plan she or he will not worry about impatience and margin calls as this will be imbedded into a good plan. And discipline I think it says for itself -- don’t think just stick to it
Hm, how about that we had a counter move @10:10 (2pts)
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
--it’s not what I was hoping for but as I said in post # 174 I'll gladly win 2-3pt a day for the rest of my life…
On the other hand the (3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
played pretty well -- down more than 4pts.
So after this Post-Lunch Move down we should expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if the market is testing the low of the day (as per (5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move)
So As expected we have a beautiful counter –trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move
Now we'll patiently wait for our 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
Dario1, i like your assumptions summary. I pretty much look at it as you do. To this end, i like to use this MTF indicator from Fat Tails clickme it is very useful.
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
Thank you for reminding me about this one. I remember I was using opening range indicator before ( I've experimented with different hours though) and some how I've faded away from it during my research progress -- may be I should take a second look
thanks
D
For the ES i use 60 minutes for the initial balance (9:30-10:30am EST). This is a standard and consider range extention has been established when price makes 4 ticks outside of the IB, some people use 3 ticks for range extention.
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
I found that the most powerful OR´s are the first 5 minutes (first reaction), the first 15 minutes (time span for executing the overnight orders) and the last 5 minutes of the first hour.
So based on the current NY Opening Hour trend, which was down
We should expect the following
2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
UP
(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
DOWN
(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Depends on the Post-Lunch Move
Btw, the Morning move is on the way as we speak -- I’m just slow in typing and finding free PC with Internet at work
I draw the first 15 minutes manually and for the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes of the first hour, I use an indicator called DDF (Daily Directional Forecast). If you are interested at it, let me know.
The following user says Thank You to Abde for this post:
12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
What a beautiful move down
– who knows maybe this is the beginning of the one that all the bears are waiting for
What do you think Fadi?
1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move (DOWN 6pts)
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move (UP over 8pts) Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move (DOWN nearly 6pts) Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move (DOWN 6pts) Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move (UP 4pts) Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move (DOWN nearly 3pts)
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
Based on the scheduled news i.e. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI we should expect a counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move around 10:00am
-- Let's wait and see...
Hopefully this one (Post-Lunch Move) will be out of the way soon so we can concentrate 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
– expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if the market is testing the high or low of the day.
@Fadi
The logic is the time period vs. the price movement
As I’ve posted in the post #1: the price moves can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is a some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement.
This is why I've started this thread to see if other traders noticed similar market behaviour.
D
yes there are key times and price always moves within a 30min window at those key times, now how you trade at these times is what matters. My key times are a little different from urs but close, I dont even think about them anymore I just know where there at and trade accordingly
The following user says Thank You to Rad4633 for this post:
Yeah I guess, to each his own subdivision of the trading day and week.
For me, I always favor the upside bias between 11h30 and 2h30 roughly, this is the time when the big boys are out having a steak and few laughs, thus only small retail investors in the arena trading from the long side and creating a light float up effect. Also, I visually rarely to never short in that time frame if trading intraday, volume is lightest of the day.
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
The truth is that trading doesn't have to be more difficult than one choose for it to be.
And only traders make the trading more complicated than it is -- big volume, momentum down, who’s buying , why the resistance line fail etc. I know… I know … I’m going too far but really it doesn’t have to be so complicated.
agree with you and @Fadi at these key times things are happened.... AM times- positioning oneself for day, lunch reversal, Bonds hedging nothing new just need to be aware of it..my 2 cents
so you just trade reverse at these times all thru the day, is that what ur saying? if so would you share a chart showing your Ninja trade markers so I can see and understand better...picture worth a thousand words
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes the move failed -- undesired move
(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 10:00am to just before 10:45am
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias) the move failed -- undesired move
(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend
key news for today
08:30 Non-Farm Employment Change
--be careful don't get fleeced
from Bloomberg:
- The European Union’s 19th crisis summit was winding down when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made an unusual request.
He wanted some alone time with EU President Herman Van Rompuy to
thank him for charting the path toward a shock-proof euro zone.
- Claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in a month and
American companies added more workers than forecast, easing concern
the labor market may be stagnating.
