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ES Unfair Advantage


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ES Unfair Advantage

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  #201 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Why are you doing daily recaps of April, when the current month is September?

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 dario1 
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Big Mike View Post
Why are you doing daily recaps of April, when the current month is September?

Mike


As per post#168 I would like to find out if the market really moves the way I described in my post #1 where I've stated that certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and the price movement. This is why I've started this thread. Same as other members of your futures.io (formerly BMT) forum to study of materials and sources in order to establish facts and reach new conclusions to make us better traders.
dario

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 dario1 
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Recap -- Tuesday, May 1, 2012

and again




(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)

(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm

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 dario1 
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Recap -- Wednesday, May 2, 2012



(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm




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 dario1 
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Recap -- Thursday, May 3, 2012

(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move

As I've posted before I’m recently focusing only on the 5 moves that I’ve described in the post #1.
a) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
b) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
c) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch move
d) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
e) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move

--but the move was so obvious that I had to included it in this analysis.


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm



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 dario1 
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Recap -- Friday, May 4, 2012


(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
No move


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend



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 dario1 
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Key news for today:

09:00 Final Manufacturing PMI (USD)
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

From Bloomberg:
-- European leaders are stepping up shuttle diplomacy this week as they
brace for their central banker’s plan to defend the euro from bond-market
turmoil.
- The yen strengthened against higher- yielding currencies such as the
Australian and New Zealand dollars as signs the global economic
slowdown is deepening boosted demand for safer assets.
- The pound rose toward a three-month high against the dollar after an
industry report showed U.K. manufacturing shrank less than economists
forecast, damping speculation the Bank of England will increase monetary
stimulus.

R3 1429.00
R2 1421.00
R1 1413.00
PP 1404.25
S1 1396.25
S2 1387.50
S3 1379.50

Based on the pivots we should expect a nice range (and volatile) day

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 dario1 
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ok, we all know that ES is about to sink -- not only from the technical point of view but also temporal -- we are entering the fall season and typically September/October wasn't very kind to ES.
Further, the current up trend doesn't really reflect reality of the economy too.

So if this all is true and we all know it -- why at the end 95 % of us will loose money?
--just a thought for today

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Why? -> emotions
But also because most cannot wait, no patience, also often these same people bet the farm and end up with tons of margin calls that accumulate as they wait for the fall
They will be squeezed out of their positions, only to watch the market fall the next day.

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dario1 View Post
Key news for today:

09:00 Final Manufacturing PMI (USD)
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)


Based on the scheduled news i.e. 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI we should expect a nice counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move just around 10:00am
-- Let see if this will hold water today.

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Fadi View Post
Why? -> emotions
But also because most cannot wait, no patience, also often these same people bet the farm and end up with tons of margin calls that accumulate as they wait for the fall
They will be squeezed out of their positions, only to watch the market fall the next day.

@Fadi
Thanks and yes, you’re absolutely right
I’ll also add lack of good and tested (over and over again) working plan and the discipline to follow it.
If one has a good working plan she or he will not worry about impatience and margin calls as this will be imbedded into a good plan. And discipline I think it says for itself -- don’t think just stick to it

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dario1 View Post
Based on the scheduled news i.e. 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI we should expect a nice counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move just around 10:00am
-- Let see if this will hold water today.


Hm, how about that we had a counter move @10:10 (2pts)
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes

--it’s not what I was hoping for but as I said in post # 174 I'll gladly win 2-3pt a day for the rest of my life…

On the other hand the (3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
played pretty well -- down more than 4pts.



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 dario1 
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12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move

Ok we're waiting for the
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move

expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)



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 dario1 
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Ok it's about time --better late than never

So after this Post-Lunch Move down we should expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if the market is testing the low of the day (as per (5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move)

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dario1 View Post

So after this Post-Lunch Move down we should expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if the market is testing the low of the day (as per (5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move)

So As expected we have a beautiful counter –trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move

Now we'll patiently wait for our 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm

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 dario1 
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dario1 View Post

Now we'll patiently wait for our 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm

as expected the move was down (over 4pts) and ended up bit later at 15:40

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 dario1 
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Recap -- Monday, September 4, 2012

picture tells a thousand words:




(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Dario1, i like your assumptions summary. I pretty much look at it as you do. To this end, i like to use this MTF indicator from Fat Tails clickme it is very useful.

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trendisyourfriend View Post
Dario1, i like your assumptions summary. I pretty much look at it as you do. To this end, i like to use this MTF indicator from Fat Tails clickme it is very useful.

Thank you for reminding me about this one. I remember I was using opening range indicator before ( I've experimented with different hours though) and some how I've faded away from it during my research progress -- may be I should take a second look
thanks
D

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dario1 View Post
Thank you for reminding me about this one. I remember I was using opening range indicator before ( I've experimented with different hours though) and some how I've faded away from it during my research progress -- may be I should take a second look
thanks
D

For the ES i use 60 minutes for the initial balance (9:30-10:30am EST). This is a standard and consider range extention has been established when price makes 4 ticks outside of the IB, some people use 3 ticks for range extention.

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 dario1 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
For the ES i use 60 minutes

thanks trendisyourfriend
and yes 60m chart is in my toolbox that were my pivots are calculated as well
thx

For today
R3 1424.50
R2 1418.33
R1 1412.16
PP 1403.33
S1 1397.16
S2 1388.33
S3 1382.16

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 dario1 
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the only key news for today is 08:30 Revised Non farm Productivity
and looks like this may upset the market

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 Abde 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
For the ES i use 60 minutes for the initial balance (9:30-10:30am EST). This is a standard and consider range extention has been established when price makes 4 ticks outside of the IB, some people use 3 ticks for range extention.

@trendisyourfriend, @dario1,

I found that the most powerful OR´s are the first 5 minutes (first reaction), the first 15 minutes (time span for executing the overnight orders) and the last 5 minutes of the first hour.

 
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 dario1 
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So based on the current NY Opening Hour trend, which was down
We should expect the following
2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
UP


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
DOWN

(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Depends on the Post-Lunch Move

Btw, the Morning move is on the way as we speak -- I’m just slow in typing and finding free PC with Internet at work

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 dario1 
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Abde View Post
@trendisyourfriend, @dario1,

I found that the most powerful OR´s are the first 5 minutes (first reaction)


Yes, you’re right but sometime the move is so volatile one could end up with nasty surprise



Abde View Post

the first 15 minutes (time span for executing the overnight orders)


interesting – I have to look at this more closely





Abde View Post

and the last 5 minutes of the first hour.

This is the part when usually (as I’ve labeled) the Morning Move is on the way which is counter to the NY Opening Hour move

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 Abde 
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dario1 View Post
Yes, you’re right but sometime the move is so volatile one could end up with nasty surprise





interesting – I have to look at this more closely






This is the part when usually (as I’ve labeled) the Morning Move is on the way which is counter to the NY Opening Hour move

@dario1

I draw the first 15 minutes manually and for the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes of the first hour, I use an indicator called DDF (Daily Directional Forecast). If you are interested at it, let me know.

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 dario1 
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So far so good
we even had a 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
-- expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move -- around 10:38AM

so now we’re waiting for 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)

let’s see how this going to play out today
D






dario1 View Post
So based on the current NY Opening Hour trend, which was down
We should expect the following
2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
UP


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
DOWN

(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Depends on the Post-Lunch Move

Btw, the Morning move is on the way as we speak -- I’m just slow in typing and finding free PC with Internet at work


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 dario1 
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12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
What a beautiful move down
– who knows maybe this is the beginning of the one that all the bears are waiting for
What do you think Fadi?






dario1 View Post
So far so good
we even had a 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
-- expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move -- around 10:38AM

so now we’re waiting for 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)

let’s see how this going to play out today
D


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 dario1 
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Recap -- Wednesday, September 5, 2012


And again a picture tells a thousand words:



1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move (DOWN 6pts)
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move (UP over 8pts)
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move (DOWN nearly 6pts)
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move (DOWN 6pts)
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move (UP 4pts)
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move (DOWN nearly 3pts)
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm

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 dario1 
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Key news

08:15 ADP Non-Farm
08:30 Unemployment Claims (USD)
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD)
10:30 Natural Gas Storage (USD)
11:00 Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Based on the scheduled news i.e. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI we should expect a counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move around 10:00am
-- Let's wait and see...

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 dario1 
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Ok we have the NY Opening Hour move UP

So we should expect the 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move pretty soon

expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the NY Opening Hour move

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 dario1 
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On August 27th, 2012, I’ve posted:


dario1 View Post
I just want to tell all visitors here that I'm still long from 1400.5.
And, I think there is a good possibility to revisit the 1425 soon -- so I'll be on guard for a second pop above that level.
D

--Is this a spike I'm waiting for? For sol long….

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 Fadi 
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What would you do about this spike? exit from your position today or tomorrow or what is your plan?

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 dario1 
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What would you do about this spike? exit from your position today or tomorrow or what is your plan?

No, I think we’re going higher – it’s an election year, remember?
But please don’t say this to anyone

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 dario1 
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Lesson learned today -- I hope (for some)

We all learn on our mistakes -- I agree 100%

There is so much wisdom on the futures.io (formerly BMT) forum
-- if one can actually listen to her/his advice she/he could be retired by now.

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 dario1 
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Yeah my target on the ES is 1232$ :-)


@Fadi
your number's almost up

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 Fadi 
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@Fadi
your number's almost up

LOL :-)
Yeah that's my downside target in fact. I think we will reach there.

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 dario1 
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LOL :-)
Yeah that's my downside target in fact. I think we will reach there.


My bad, I’m bit visually impaired – I thought I saw 1432

On the other hand you might be right, ES may come back down sooner than we all may think.

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 dario1 
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12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move

Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)

So looks like we are developing something right now
--Let’s wait and see

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 dario1 
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2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move

Hopefully this one (Post-Lunch Move) will be out of the way soon so we can concentrate 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if the market is testing the high or low of the day.

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 Fadi 
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So what is the logic?
You divide the day into 6 periods, and they alternate directions?
For example:

09:30 -> 10:00 UP
10:00 -> 10:45 DOWN
10:45 -> 12:45 UP
12:45 -> 02:00 DOWN
02:00 -> 03:00 UP
03:00 -> 04:00 DOWN

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 dario1 
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So what is the logic?
You divide the day into 6 periods, and they alternate directions?

@Fadi
The logic is the time period vs. the price movement

As I’ve posted in the post #1: the price moves can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is a some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement.

This is why I've started this thread to see if other traders noticed similar market behaviour.
D

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 Rad4633 
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@Fadi
The logic is the time period vs. the price movement

As I’ve posted in the post #1: the price moves can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is a some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement.

This is why I've started this thread to see if other traders noticed similar market behaviour.
D

yes there are key times and price always moves within a 30min window at those key times, now how you trade at these times is what matters. My key times are a little different from urs but close, I dont even think about them anymore I just know where there at and trade accordingly

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 Fadi 
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Yeah I guess, to each his own subdivision of the trading day and week.
For me, I always favor the upside bias between 11h30 and 2h30 roughly, this is the time when the big boys are out having a steak and few laughs, thus only small retail investors in the arena trading from the long side and creating a light float up effect. Also, I visually rarely to never short in that time frame if trading intraday, volume is lightest of the day.

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 dario1 
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yes there are key times and price always moves within a 30min window at those key times, now how you trade at these times is what matters. My key times are a little different from urs but close, I dont even think about them anymore I just know where there at and trade accordingly


Exactly!

The truth is that trading doesn't have to be more difficult than one choose for it to be.
And only traders make the trading more complicated than it is -- big volume, momentum down, who’s buying , why the resistance line fail etc. I know… I know … I’m going too far but really it doesn’t have to be so complicated.

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 Rad4633 
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Exactly!

The truth is that trading doesn't have to be more difficult than one choose for it to be.
And only traders make the trading more complicated than it is -- big volume, momentum down, who’s buying , why the resistance line fail etc. I know… I know … I’m going too far but really it doesn’t have to be so complicated.

agree with you and @Fadi at these key times things are happened.... AM times- positioning oneself for day, lunch reversal, Bonds hedging nothing new just need to be aware of it..my 2 cents

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 dario1 
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agree with you and @Fadi at these key times things are happened.... AM times- positioning oneself for day, lunch reversal, Bonds hedging nothing new just need to be aware of it..my 2 cents



That’s more than 2 cents this looks like a 1K a day system

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 Fadi 
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That’s more than 2 cents this looks like a 1K a day system

Good one

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 Rad4633 
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That’s more than 2 cents this looks like a 1K a day system

so you just trade reverse at these times all thru the day, is that what ur saying? if so would you share a chart showing your Ninja trade markers so I can see and understand better...picture worth a thousand words

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 dario1 
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One day, be patient – I still have my day job
D

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 dario1 
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so you just trade reverse at these times all thru the day, is that what ur saying? if so would you share a chart showing your Ninja trade markers so I can see and understand better...picture worth a thousand words

See posts 41 and 42 in this thread


and ur right: picture worth a thousand words

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 dario1 
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after such a run UP the players are bit confused so we should expect quite low range evening -- same thing happens with gold

btw, I was automatically disconnected from TW (that 24h thing) -- so it will take some time before I load my charts and do the recap for today

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 dario1 
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Good one

here is another one:

a thousand a day keeps anxiety away

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 dario1 
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Recap -- Thursday, September 6, 2012

(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
the move failed -- undesired move


(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 10:00am to just before 10:45am


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
the move failed -- undesired move


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm


(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend



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 dario1 
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after such a run UP the players are bit confused so we should expect quite low range evening


roughly until the Europe opened, as expected traders have positioned themselves in a comfort zone that was established (1430.5-33 range until 2:00am)

--so now it all depends on control boyz and how far they want this thing to go.

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 dario1 
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key news for today
08:30 Non-Farm Employment Change
--be careful don't get fleeced

from Bloomberg:
- The European Union’s 19th crisis summit was winding down when
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made an unusual request.
He wanted some alone time with EU President Herman Van Rompuy to
thank him for charting the path toward a shock-proof euro zone.
- Claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in a month and
American companies added more workers than forecast, easing concern
the labor market may be stagnating.

Pivots for today

R3 1461.25
R2 1451.17
R1 1441.09
PP 1422.17
S1 1412.09
S2 1393.17
S3 1383.09

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