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ES Unfair Advantage


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ES Unfair Advantage

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 dario1 
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looks like we're going to test 1397area -- today's daily low

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I should always remember this or even change my signature to:

Take second entry on the trade

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Quoting 

Take second entry on the trade


sorry what I ment was:
Take the second entry as your first entry

--maybe bit confusing but make sense to me, especially if the market is telling you something in advance

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 dario1 
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Could be a volatile morning:

08:30 Core CPI

08:30 Empire state Manufacturing

09:00 TIC Long-Term Purchases

09:15 Capacity Utlization Rate

09:15 Industrial Production

10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index

10:30 Crude Oil Inventories

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 Fadi 
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Today is traditonally known as whipsaw Wednesday the third trading day of an optionX week.
It shall be the mot volatile day of the week as institutions try and shake the weaks out of their puts and calls...
I have penciled down a high selling probability, so watch out below!

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looks like we're going to test 1397 area

after 3 overnight tests (4 altogether) ES looks like is trying to brake up

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Fadi View Post
Today is traditonally known as whipsaw Wednesday the third trading day of an optionX week.
It shall be the mot volatile day of the week as institutions try and shake the weaks out of their puts and calls...
I have penciled down a high selling probability, so watch out below!

excellent point,
let see how it going to play

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 dario1 
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Last night I entered long, but too early (3pt to be exact). Market started telling me that will change the direction and I've jumped right a way.
Instead, I should wait for the appropriate entry signal
again to remember: Take the second entry as your first entry and sometimes it takes longer
that's all




dario1 View Post
Take the second entry as your first entry

--maybe bit confusing but make sense to me, especially if the market is telling you something in advance


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Today is traditonally known as whipsaw Wednesday


I guess we have to wait for the whipsaw Thursday

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I guess we have to wait for the whipsaw Thursday

Yeah no volume whatsoever hehe :-)
this is very strange for an options week; never seen this before although in august volumes usually dries out, but this was extreme :-p

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Yeah no volume whatsoever hehe :-)
this is very strange for an options week; never seen this before although in august volumes usually dries out, but this was extreme :-p

Also August is not a major month for option -- Sept for sure

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Also August is not a major month for option -- Sept for sure

Agree :-)

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Key news for tomorrow, Aug 16

08:30 Building Permits
08:30 Unemployment Claims
10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30 Natural Gas Storage

Still long btw

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The dollar is inching high high high this morning :-)
it will bring down commodities and gold for sure, but also the indexes and all equities in general.

Let's see, there is on the other hand a huge bond selling action taking place overnight during the Asian market hours that is alarming... Worth keeping an eye on yields.

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Not a real double top, but a significant high.
Connect the high of 2007 to the high of 2012 and you fall right on the high of today's action on the S&P500 index.

@Fadi
what will be the ultimate double top for EC

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@Fadi
what will be the ultimate double top for EC

I assume you mean ES :-)
It would be 1413.50$ and I think there is a high probability we tag it before September's drop...

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Fadi View Post
The dollar is inching high high high this morning :-)
it will bring down commodities and gold for sure, but also the indexes and all equities in general.

Let's see, there is on the other hand a huge bond selling action taking place overnight during the Asian market hours that is alarming... Worth keeping an eye on yields.

Canadian dollar is up a bit (0.04) relative to US too
-- although it's a highest level since May




Fadi View Post
I assume you mean ES :-)

my bad -- just woke up

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It would be 1413.50$ and I think there is a high probability we tag it before September's drop...

Now that's interesting
I know you’re a head of the crowd could you kindly elaborate bit more on the September's drop...
thx

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Canadian dollar is up a bit (0.04) relative to US too
-- although it's a highest level since May



Btw, please take a look were ES was at that time

Observe & learn

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Ok, here is an update on my current trade

I'm still Long since Aug 14 (made a mistake should enter bit later for extra few points please see the image).



Now the interesting part of the discussion is where the ES will go from now??

And I have a hunch that tomorrow there will be many surprises and many unhappy campers
– thing to remember: 95% of the herd will lose money
cheers

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Key news for tomorrow, Aug 17
09:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
10:00 CB Leading Index


Pivots
R3 1429.25
R2 1423.83
R1 1418.41
PP 1410.08
S1 1404.66
S2 1396.33
S3 1390.91

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dario1 View Post
Now that's interesting
I know you’re a head of the crowd could you kindly elaborate bit more on the September's drop...
thx


dario1 View Post
Btw, please take a look were ES was at that time

Observe & learn

Ciao Dario, how are you today?
Regarding September, it coincides with my cycle work on the markets, and I still see a final drop that should happen in 2012 before a big inflationary rally into 2013 and probably beyond.
But this is not to be taken as trading recommendations and it is long term, please follow your own thoughts on the market and your trading methodology.

I simply like to share my analysis, so that others share theirs and we enrich and exchange ideas. This is the beauty of this business, we are all trading different strategies, different time frame, different logic, and different opinions, while at the same time luckily we are as well all surviving and making some pennies along the way

Regarding the double top at 1413.50$ we took it out yesterday and scored a YTD high. We will I think in that case pierce a bit higher too but as long as the low volume remains dominant on the street.
Low volume is significant of retail investors trading, which usually don't know are pretty much always on the wrong side of the market.


Moreover, what I really wanted to see this week, was the dollar staying stable (i.e. not dipping significantly), while the markets make new highs. This practically happened, and is very convincing. I feel that my predicted down leg shall start soon (2/3 weeks or so).


I will definitely keep on observing and learning, just note for clarification than when I refer to the dollar, I mean the US dollar. The CAD obviously works inversely to the USD, so as the CAD rallies the market rallies, because in that case the USD would be dipping lower


Today; last trading day of the OptionX week, it wasn't that much of a shark week as we call it, and this is surprising somehow :-)
Let's see how it unfolds, I will be driving to Paris at market opening, so won't be trading or reading the forums but will check late at night.


Happy trading and catch with you later

Cheers
Fadi

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Fadi, these are all valid points and thank you very much for sharing them with futures.io (formerly BMT) community.
I simply go with the price action that I compliment with other external factors such as current news, CAD (and other instruments), bid/ask. Hey, I even take into consideration the quality of the connection to my broker -- in volatile days the connection lost box appears on my screen at list three times more than in regular days -- maybe this is strange to some of you but many times I had to call my broker to flatten the positions due to connection lost.

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I'm still Long since Aug 14


In my opinion in this kind of market there is only two things a trader can do

1. Stay out

Or

2. Stay on course


good week-end to all
D

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I've posted this on Aug 10:


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ok, we are roughly at $1,395 -- I'm just wondering if in a few days/weeks we will consider the $1395 as a bargain!!!


What's Your Take On That?

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dario1 View Post
I've posted this on Aug 10:




What's Your Take On That?

In few weeks you would wish you sold at that price in my opinion.

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@Fadi
good to hear from you -- how was your trip (to Paris? -if I remember)

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@Fadi
good to hear from you -- how was your trip (to Paris? -if I remember)

Still in Paris yeah until Monday :-)
Just connectinng from my iPad for a quick check :-p

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Just connectinng from my iPad for a quick check :-p

Love that gadget, had to return though -- no flash support.
How do you cope with that?

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In few weeks you would wish you sold at that price in my opinion.

@Fadi
you're maybe right
--but we all know that in the market there are no certainties only probabilities

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Ok, it's Sunday, having bit extra time on my hand I decided to look back to see the broader picture. And, here are my two
cents regarding the ES in a near future:

1. We have a very weak low from June and it need to be tested so the first drop will probably end slightly below previous low around 1250.

2. Looks like the divergence that is forming this year is wider than in the previous years suggesting that the final drop could be much deeper than anticipated.
cheers

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Yeah my target on the ES is 1232$ :-)

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Fadi View Post
Yeah my target on the ES is 1232$ :-)

1232 is a good number but, I think it should be more rounded number, like 1450 for instance.
why? -- the market took all that trouble to surpass 1400 and then to penetrate the April high, and that wider divergence that is setting up -- I think something bigger is forming, a more significant top.

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I think we have our low at 1413.75
Of course it will be tested once or twice or even exceeded by few ticks -- all depends of where some traders going to put their limit/market stops.

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Key news for August 20, 2012




-- I guess no new is good news


R3 1422.75
R2 1420.25
R1 1417.75
PP 1414.25
S1 1411.75
S2 1408.25
S3 1405.75

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dario1 View Post
I think we have our low at 1413.75
Of course it will be tested once or twice or even exceeded by few ticks -- all depends of where some traders going to put their limit/market stops.


it's about time I thought this will happen during the opening of the European session

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 dario1 
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I was at work at the time when the daily low was developing and I was thinking that if anyone is short this was a good time to unload or even be more adventurous and reverse.
I'm still long btw

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second day in a row without the key news
what next ES @ 1450??



R3 1426.50
R2 1422.58
R1 1418.66
PP 1414.08
S1 1410.16
S2 1405.58
S3 1401.66

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ES again around 1413

--I think this is another chance for the shorts to unload

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HL HH HL HH…This is too obvious .
Big Boyz will do something about that .. brace yourself

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nice scalping opportunity -- anyone a board?

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 dario1 
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Hello,
Anyone felled for those shakeouts and scare tactics today.
Shorts or Longs -- did you bail out? --If so let me know what was your stop or a panic threshold?

- I have nothing against anybody's trading skills, systems, and strategies
This is pure research that could help many straggling traders
We all can learn from our as well as from others mistakes.
thanks
D

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On August 7, 2012 I've posted:


dario1 View Post
I'm waiting for this up party to be over so I can short it with all I’ve got.

however I had a "gut feeling" that ES should have a huge spike up in a near time before the real downward move. So instead short I went Long from 1400.50

Since then the price moved to near 1425 today and I think this is a nice spike. Don't' you think?
However as soon as short term timers went bullish and most of them were on board after ES surpass 1420 I should exit.
However I did not reverse during the morning run because I got so greedy.
And, now I'm sitting on a much much less attractive position that may in few days become a looser.
- lesson learned: have a nice profit don't get greedy get flat.
You can always rejoin at the better price.

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6:00PM - 8:00PM Market develops its trading range

I think the low for tonight is established

And of course it will be tested, and maybe even exceeded -- all depends of where traders going to put their limit/market stops.

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forgot the chart

P.S.
I've tired to add the image retroactively without success
-- anyone knows how to add image as an attachment to the existing post
thanks

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dario1 View Post
forgot the chart

P.S.
I've tired to add the image retroactively without success
-- anyone knows how to add image as an attachment to the existing post
thanks

Edit -> Advanced -> Manage attachments.

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 dario1 
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Big Mike View Post
Edit -> Advanced -> Manage attachments.

Mike

thanks Mike

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 dario1 
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ok it's time to go up

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 dario1 
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I was thinking to bail out but the market is telling me that is ready for another upswing
--so I'm still long

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 dario1 
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August 23, 2012
08:30 Unemployment Claims (USD)
09:00 Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
10:00 New Home Sales (USD)
10:30 Natural Gas Storage (USD)

R3 1424.25
R2 1420.25
R1 1416.25
PP 1410.25
S1 1406.25
S2 1400.25
S3 1396.25

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 dario1 
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I'm still loading my charts after IB automatic disconnection (every 24h)
but based on the last chart that I've saved at 5:30pm today, I think ES is ready for another upswing
cheers

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 dario1 
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I think this was a nice test of the daily low and now we're ready to…
not so fast looks like it's gonna be another one.

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 dario1 
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I think this was a nice test of the daily low and ... looks like it's gonna be another one.

sorry for the longs -- but I think this swing down still have a room to go lower

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I think this swing down still have a room to go lower

so how far it will go -- any targets in mind

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so how far it will go -- any targets in mind

how about testing yesterday's low 1404

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 dario1 
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10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning move
expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.

Are we done yet?

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10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning move
expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias

I guess we'll find out soon

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expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias

I will say -- right to the minute!!

hope you enjoy as I did
have to go to my day job seeya

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expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.

This image is much better
-- I'm gonna get fired!

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 dario1 
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Time vs. Price -- Today’s recap

It was quite entertaining if one could expect which way the market will go.

Today the market behaved very close to what has been said in this thread (please see the attached chart):

1. Morning Move 10:15AM - 10:45AM
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias
--today's move was UP

2. Post-lunch move 12:45PM - 2:00PM
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend
-- today's move was DOWN

3. The "Afternoon Move" as well as "Delayed Afternoon Move" both were initiated a bit early bit early today but who cares if they were expected!
cheers

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 dario1 
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We are waiting for the short term timers
so we can expect the roller coaster ride today as market will be convincing all the longs that they are on a wrong side
(zdj0720)

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 dario1 
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Key News for today
08:30 Core Durable Goods Orders


base on the pivots we can expect a wider range day than yesterday

R3 1438.00
R2 1425.33
R1 1412.66
PP 1405.33
S1 1392.66
S2 1385.33
S3 1372.66

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 dario1 
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True or false

Do you know that Goldman Sachs has Short Term Timers Indicator (probably with a code to recognize your IP address)

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ES weekly close @ 1,410.50

Down 5 pts on the week.
This is a first lower weekly close since…

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 dario1 
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ES going down
We all know that this thing has to go down however the question is when?

When? -- When we're least expecting it -- that for sure.

Remember , we can’t outsmart the Control Boyz!
Even if only because of one reason, we’re playing paper and they have unlimited resources!

For example, we did not expect a 400 dollar drop for gold last year in Sept

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This is a ratio that is quite common among consistently profitable traders:
90% of trading profits come from 10% of trades.
True or false

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 dario1 
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Time vs. Price -- Today’s recap -- Aug 24

Today the market opened in a choppy mood until about 10:00AM and then initiated its morning run (over 12pt) until 11:20 -- so the overall today’s trend was UP

(1) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-lunch Move --the move started @13:10 (4pt)
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (or upward bias of the day)

(2) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move --the move started @13:54 (4pt)
– expect:
A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high of the day.


(3) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move ---the move started @15:08 (5pt)

– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect:
A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day in an up trend

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 dario1 
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From the Chronicles of ES Unfair Advantage

I've decided to review the last four months of market behaviour. I've started monitoring/recording the ES in April so I should have enough data for this task. Let see how the ES performed over those few months in regards to time vs. price.

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 dario1 
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Time vs. Price Recap -- Friday, April 20, 2012

Hi, I've just finished setting up my workspace for this task and below are the results from my first retro day. I didn't choose this day on purpose -- it just happened that I've started recording ES that Friday.


On Friday, April 20, the market opened in a choppy mood and then
(1) around 10:10AM initiated its morning run (over 7pt) until 10:40 -- so the overall trend was UP

(2) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move started @12:45 (1pt)
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (or upward or downward bias of the day) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN off the high of the day,

--the move gained only 1pt and then failed 7pt until 14:00 (i.e. undesired move)

(3) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move --the move started @14:10 (3pt)
– expect:
A resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm,


(4) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move ---the move started a bit early @14:40 (5pt)
– the 2:00 pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect:
1)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend,

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 dario1 
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On Monday, April 23, NY session opened @ 1361 and went down from there
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was down (7pt)


And then around 10:15AM it initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. -- the move was UP (7pt)


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move started @12:55 (nearly 3pt)
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (or upward or downward bias of the day) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move --the move started bit early @13:45 (nearly 4pt)
– expect:
2)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move --the move started bit early @14:40 (4pt)
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect:
1)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend

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 dario1 
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On Tuesday, April 24, NY session opened @ 1362.75 and ES went up from there
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was up (7pt)


And then around 10:10AM it initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. -- the move was down (3pt)


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move started @13:00 (up 2pt)
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (or upward or downward bias of the day) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move --the move started @13:55 (4pt)
– expect:
2)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move --the move started bit early @14:30 (up 5pt)
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect:
2)A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day

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 dario1 
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I just want to tell all visitors here that I'm still long from 1400.5.
And, I think there is a good possibility to revisit the 1425 soon -- so I'll be on guard for a second pop above that level. Who knows, maybe this will be the spike I'm waiting for (so long)
D

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10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning Move --almost to the minute! (up 3pt so far)

– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. --

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10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning Move --almost to the minute! (up 3pt so far)

– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. --


I'll gladly win 2-3pt a day working 15-45 minutes a day for the rest of my life - how about you?

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SteveC55374
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Chanel in 1411.25 to 1412.00 ??

The following user says Thank You to SteveC55374 for this post:
 
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 dario1 
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Chanel in 1411.25 to 1412.00 ??

@SteveC55374
Channels are good but as nearly everything in the market they are not so certain.

Thank you for posting and in the future you may want to attach a chart to better convey a message
Thanks again
D

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 dario1 
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How more vivid can this get:

(1) When NY session opened the ES initiated its NY Opening Hour Move (Market develops its trend or bias for the day). The move was down for the total of 5 pt. -- The bias is down.

(2) Then at 10:15 the Morning Move (--expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.) The move was up 7pt.

(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM The Post Lunch Move (– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend or bias of the day)
The move started bit late @ 13:28 and change in price was nearly 3pt.

(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move. The move also started bit late @ 14:18 (2pt)
(-- expect: A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.

(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move. The move started almost to the minute @ 14:58 (4pt)
(-- expect: A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm)

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 dario1 
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Ok, so far so good:

(1) It was a bit choppy first 30 minutes of the NY session but as we can see the bias was down.

(2) Then at 10:02, as expected, the Morning Move was initiated (--expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.) The move was up almost 10pts.

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 dario1 
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Hopefully this is the beginning of our 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-lunch move
D

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Hopefully this is the beginning of our 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-lunch move

D

And indeed it was!
We were expecting a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend which was down, and the Post-Lunch Move was down more than 2pts.

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Time vs. Price Recap -- Tuesday, April 24, 2012

(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was down

And then around 10:10AM ES initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. -- The move was up (9 pts).


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM The Post Lunch Move (– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend or bias of the day)
The move started @ 13:05 and was down more than 3 pts.


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move. The move also started @ 13:56 (3pts)
(-- expect: A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move. The move started bit late @ 15:18, was very swift and lasted only 14 minutes (4pts)
(-- expect: A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm)

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 dario1 
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Key news for today

08:30 Prelim GDP (USD)
10:00 Pending Home Sales (USD)
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories (USD)
14:00 Beige Book (USD)


From Bloomberg news:
-- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in August by the most in 10
months as households grew more pessimistic about their employment
prospects and the economic outlook.
-- Ben S. Bernanke probably won’t provide specific plans for further
monetary action at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual
Jackson Hole symposium this week, according to Pacific Investment
Management Co. Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian.

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 dario1 
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Pivots & range

Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded

Let see if this will hold water today.

Yesterday's summary:
Open 1408.25
High 1412.00
Low 1403.25
Close 1407.75
Range 8.75

Today's pivots:
R3 1420.75
R2 1416.42
R1 1412.09
PP 1407.67
S1 1403.34
S2 1398.92
S3 1394.59

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 dario1 
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Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded

Let see if this will hold water today.


Well, it didn’t play out as I tough – All action was between PP and R1 and the range was only 7.75 pts. …but after all tomorrow is another day

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 dario1 
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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was down (over 2pts)


And then around 10:05AM ES has initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. -- The move was up (3pts)


(3) The Delayed Morning Move has played well (5pts today) @10:35
But as you see from my previous posts I’m recently focusing only on the 5 moves that I’ve described in my post #1:
a) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
b) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
c) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-lunch move
d) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move
e) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post Lunch Move
We were expecting a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (downward bias)
The move was initiated @ 13:26 and failed (undesired move -- less than 1pt)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move
– expect a resumption of the day’s trend if there was no Post Lunch Move (or undesired move)
The move was initiated @ 13:55 (over 3pts)


Then @ 15:06 ES has initiated its Delayed Afternoon Move (2pts)
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour trend.

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 dario1 
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I just realized that post 181 has a typo in the heading . it should read Recap for Tuesday August 28 instead of April 24
apology
D

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Pivots & range

Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded


Two times the charm?

here the stats:

Yesterday's summary:
Open 1407.25
High 1412.50
Low 1404.75
Close 1407.25
Range 7.75

Today's pivots:
R3 1420.25
R2 1415.92
R1 1411.59
PP 1408.17
S1 1403.84
S2 1400.42
S3 1396.09

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Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded -- Let see if this will hold water today.


Well, it didn’t play out yesterday; and today is not a perfect day but little progress at least.

The range was wider than the one in the previous day – over 12 pts – we’re moving forward….
the action was between PP and S3

R3 1420.25
R2 1415.92
R1 1411.59
PP 1408.17
S1 1403.84
S2 1400.42
S3 1396.09

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Time vs. Price Recap -- Thursday, August 30, 2012

So today the market opened in a choppy mood and then
(1) around 10:14AM initiated its Morning Move (over 6pts) until 10:55 -- so the overall today’s trend was Down.


(2) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move started around13:00
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (downward bias of the day)
--the move was down but not significant so I've considered this as undesired move.


(3) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move --the move started @ 14:10 (2pts)
– expect a resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm,


(4) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move ---the move started a bit early @14:50 (over 3pt)
– the 2:00 pm move will help dictate what may happen
expect a counter-trend move of the day’s trend.

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Key news for Aug 31,2012

01:00 Housing Starts (JPY)
09:45 Chicago PMI (USD)
09:55 Revised UoM Consumer Senitment (USD)
10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00 Factory Orders (USD)


From Bloomberg :

-- More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment
benefits last week, a sign that progress in the labor market is faltering amid
a slowing economy.

- Consumer confidence in the U.S. held close to a seven-month low last
week as Americans’ view of the buying climate fell to the lowest level of the
year.

- The euro declined for a second day against the dollar after Spain’s Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy said his government would delay deciding whether
to seek a sovereign bailout until the aid conditions are clear.

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Except the last, Fridays were usually upbeat days
-- I favour higher and who knows maybe this is a day that I was waiting for -- bringing a surge to the new high… not only daily, but weekly and who knows maybe monthly.
Sorry, I'm very optimistic today (maybe is just long weekend) but it’s the last day of August. and could be a day to remember

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So far today is a beautiful ES unfair advantage day.

(1) The market started its NY Opening Hour Move down (12pts)
Then
(2) @ 10:10 ES initiated its Morning move up (over 14pts)
an later with
(3) Delayed Morning Move down (9pts)


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Ok we're waiting for the
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move

– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)

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Ok we're waiting for the
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move

– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)



13:10 -- I think is about time

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Fridays were usually upbeat days
-- I favour higher and who knows maybe this is a day that I'm waiting for -- bringing a surge to the new high…

As it turns out I was too optimistic this morning. Although Sept futures managed to get higher intraday relative to this morning (1412 -- matching Aug 29 & 30 intraday highs) there was no daily, weekly, or monthly recorded high. It closed at 1404.75 down 5.75 pts on the week -- a second consecutive weekly decline. All the action was between R2 and bit below PP.

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Friday, August 31, 2012

Yesterday was a beautiful unfair advantage day for traders trading ES .

(1) The market started its NY Opening Hour Move down (12pts)
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


Then
(2) @ 10:10 ES initiated its Morning Move -- as expected the move was up (over 14pts)
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


an later with
(3) Delayed Morning Move -- the move was down (9pts)
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move

As I've posted before (i.e. post 185) I’m recently focusing only on the 5 moves that I’ve described in my post #1.
a) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
b) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
c) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch move
d) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
e) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move

--but the move was so obvious that I had to included it in today's analysis.


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move -- the move started @13:10 and as expected the move was down -- parallel to the NY Opening Hour Move (over 4pts)
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move

--The move was up, initiated @ 14:05 (over 4pts); it was a second leg of the bigger move that started half hour earlier.


Then @ 14:56 ES has initiated its Delayed Afternoon Move -- the move was down (4pts)
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm


[IMG]

[/IMG]


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Time vs. Price Recap -- Wednesday, April 25, 2012

On Wednesday, April 25, NY session opened @ 1380 and ES went up from there
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was up (6pt)


And then around 10:10AM it initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
-- the move was down (6pts)


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move was up and started @12:50 (nearly 5pts)
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move -- the move started bit late @14:25 (5pts)
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move -- the move started bit early @14:50 and was up 5pts
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day



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picture tells a thousand words:



(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day



(2) 10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes



(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.

(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day

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Recap -- Friday, April 26, 2012

and again
picture tells a thousand words







(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm

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Recap -- Monday, April 30, 2012




(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm

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