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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #1 (permalink)
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

I was just looking for somewhere to post an Ichimoku chart of TF and couldn't figure where else to post it so here I am....
If anyone want's to post anything TF, NQ, or whatever feel free.
The following are a daily and 1hr Ichimoku, I'm no expert but from what I understand when you get a flat top (729.9)on the cloud (on the daily in this case) and price winds up and breaks through it's pretty strong. Currently that is where we are. It's also at the top of the cloud on the 1 hr (actually just trying to break out as I type) so...
the TS and KS are still in the cloud so all the lights aren't green yet but will have to watch it. I guess the whole point is that 730 is an area to keep an eye on.

PS. I know it's not the prettiest chart...that's as good as it gets with Tradestation.
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>
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Last edited by kbit; January 10th, 2012 at 03:03 PM.
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  #3 (permalink)
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I thought I might throw this in too. This is a 15m chart wich shows clear skies to the upside. I know 15m is small for Ichimoku but I have found it useful so..
>
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  #4 (permalink)
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The Russell is a popular instrument, but I haven't traded it in probably 3 years. So I just had to go look to remind myself of some basic info:

- Traded on ICE these days
- Formerly "ER2"
- Intraday margin is a bit more than SP500
- Commissions are about the same as SP500
- Tick value is $10
- Moves in .10 increments

https://www.theice.com/productguide/ProductDetails.shtml?specId=86

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  #5 (permalink)
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Just a look at weekly and daily to see bigger picture....you can see where we're at now and why it's a trouble spot but it's looking like we will get to the 765 area at some point. I guess I would like to see another close and hold (nice pin off a retest would be nice)over the 30 area Lines are rough drawn.

>
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  #6 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Just a look at weekly and daily to see bigger picture....you can see where we're at now and why it's a trouble spot but it's looking like we will get to the 765 area at some point. I guess I would like to see another close and hold (nice pin off a retest would be nice)over the 30 area Lines are rough drawn.

>
Attachment 53286...............Attachment 53287

Yup, looks like it wants to move higher... but can it... how much negative news can we swallow before we puke? So we'll see what tomorrow brings with the several news events.

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  #7 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Yup, looks like it wants to move higher... but can it... how much negative news can we swallow before we puke? So we'll see what tomorrow brings with the several news events.

Mike

Yep, I hear ya, just seems like it never ends with all the bad news and somehow it mysteriously levitates and rises.
The only thing I can think of that supports all this is, and I know it's sounds stupid or to political is that being that the markets are forward looking , maybe Obamas departure is being priced in...

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kbit View Post
Yep, I hear ya, just seems like it never ends with all the bad news and somehow it mysteriously levitates and rises.
The only thing I can think of that supports all this is, and I know it's sounds stupid or to political is that being that the markets are forward looking , maybe Obamas departure is being priced in...


hope you don't mind for posting this here.

it's more relevant to s&p, but counts for tf as well. one thing we should not forget, the market is pretty cheap. at current valuation, a fair value for s&p should be around 1600. now the question is what are we doing at 1200? I think the answer is, a lot of bad news is already in the market. so we should have some room for more bad news. of course this is all meaningless if devastating news would hit us. like a failure from a big bank or more greece cases in europe.

should also add, as far as trading, I'm flat now. except a small position in bac. (it's almost like an option with no expiration)

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  #9 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
hope you don't mind for posting this here.

it's more relevant to s&p, but counts for tf as well. one thing we should not forget, the market is pretty cheap. at current valuation, a fair value for s&p should be around 1600. now the question is what are we doing at 1200? I think the answer is, a lot of bad news is already in the market. so we should have some room for more bad news. of course this is all meaningless if devastating news would hit us. like a failure from a big bank or more greece cases in europe.

should also add, as far as trading, I'm flat now. except a small position in bac. (it's almost like an option with no expiration)

Post anything you like...all comments welcome..good, bad, indifferent

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  #10 (permalink)
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From TTs friend


It sounds ridiculous, I know, but similar to last night, the equity index charts really look as though each needs one last great peak up and a peak that comes so quickly and stands so far above the levels of the last few days that it will make it seem like sideways is done.

Such a potential moment may be brief, though, with each of the equity index charts looking more bearish than ever with this perhaps best exemplified by the Nasdaq Composite that nearly shows one massive and bearish Rising Wedge built of the last three months of trading.




Big Wedge or massive Wedge, the target is the same at 2299, but there is something about the look of that chart above that looks nearly explosive and presumably to the downside on the apparently bearish pattern marked in above.

Might it turn out to be the gruesomely bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders possibility with a stunted right shoulder? It could, but it seems less likely with some consolidation appearing to be what the chart of the Nasdaq Composite needs the most before it might really move up or back down.

This call for consolidation is so strong, in fact, that the peak to the Rising Wedge pattern have been put in already with only the fast fall ahead.

Should the euro-euphoric peak take equities up tomorrow or perhaps it will be Friday, it is likely to look like an outrageous spike up and come and go within hours as a volatile ending to the massive rally that began with the possible bottom put in a few weeks ago at 1075 in memorable fashion in the S&P.

Before taking a look at the S&P, let’s have a look at the Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 as well so as to see this spike up possibility but more so to see the potential and likely-to-be fast fall.


As you can see above, the Dow appears to be very close to the top of its bearish Rising Wedge and whether it spikes well out of it on a possible Pipe Bottom born of the last two days or simply falls back from today’s close, it is rather clear that this pattern is calling for a bit of consolidation to the downside before the Dow might move truly up or down.

This is true, too, of the Russell 2000 with its three days of lower highs nearly boding bearishly for this small cap index straight away.


In fact, this may be one of the more helpful signals to watch tomorrow around the equity markets even though tomorrow’s likely to be volatile enough that subtle signals may not be required, but on the whole, the chart of the Russell 2000 may suggest tomorrow or Friday and the days to follow may be just about the fall sans the potential spike up.

Interestingly, this is almost true of the chart of the S&P as shown below with its Rising Wedge appearing to have moved toward fulfillment today as can be seen below.


Such a potential move will require confirmation, however, and this, of course, turns us toward levels.

Broadly speaking,1215 and 1223 stand out on the downside and 1254 and 1260 on the upside.

And considering that events in the eurozone could easily take the index outside of this very wide range, it is probably a fine time to treat the S&P with care.

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