TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes - futures io
futures io



TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one kbit with 791 posts (476 thanks)
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 38 posts (37 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Silvester17 with 31 posts (55 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Boomer34 with 23 posts (5 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Silvester17 with 1.8 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 aligator with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 kbit with 0.6 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 174,827 views
    2. thumb_up 782 thanks given
    3. group 69 followers
    1. forum 1,126 posts
    2. attach_file 269 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

(login for full post details)
  #401 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Hi guys, This is a link you can go to to vote for a local girl ( Kiley) with special needs to win a trip to kinda of a special needs theme park.
She has Cerebal Palsy and suffers from daily seizures and it would be the trip of a life time for here if she could win...so please vote for her....Thanks

You won't get any spam mail or anything...
Morgan's Wonderland | Special Needs | Family Fun | We Are Teachers

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #402 (permalink)
 Riverend 
Westlake, Oh
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL
 
Riverend's Avatar
 
Posts: 362 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,511 given, 219 received


kbit View Post
Hi guys, This is a link you can go to to vote for a local girl ( Kiley) with special needs to win a trip to kinda of a special needs theme park.
She has Cerebal Palsy and suffers from daily seizures and it would be the trip of a life time for here if she could win...so please vote for her....Thanks

You won't get any spam mail or anything...
Morgan's Wonderland | Special Needs | Family Fun | We Are Teachers

Done

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Riverend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #403 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,975 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,441 given, 98,184 received


kbit View Post
Hi guys, This is a link you can go to to vote for a local girl ( Kiley) with special needs to win a trip to kinda of a special needs theme park.
She has Cerebal Palsy and suffers from daily seizures and it would be the trip of a life time for here if she could win...so please vote for her....Thanks

You won't get any spam mail or anything...
Morgan's Wonderland | Special Needs | Family Fun | We Are Teachers

Done as well.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #404 (permalink)
 Rad4633 
Greensboro NC
 
Experience: None
Platform: TOS/ NT Dorman
Trading: ES TF CL
 
Rad4633's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,352 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 2,651 given, 892 received


kbit View Post
Hi guys, This is a link you can go to to vote for a local girl ( Kiley) with special needs to win a trip to kinda of a special needs theme park.
She has Cerebal Palsy and suffers from daily seizures and it would be the trip of a life time for here if she could win...so please vote for her....Thanks

You won't get any spam mail or anything...
Morgan's Wonderland | Special Needs | Family Fun | We Are Teachers

Done

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Rad4633 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #405 (permalink)
 HighRise1202 
houston
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
 
Posts: 407 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 266 given, 274 received

Looks like the three peaks and a domed house is about complete...except for the final wall down.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to HighRise1202 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #406 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


HighRise1202 View Post
Looks like the three peaks and a domed house is about complete...except for the final wall down.

I forgot about that...I'm going to take another look, thanks

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #407 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received



Here's a Gab trade....I'm no expert but it worked so....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #408 (permalink)
 kajojel 
Slovakia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Broker: zen-fire
Trading: futures
 
kajojel's Avatar
 
Posts: 54 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 72 given, 84 received


kbit View Post
Hi guys, This is a link you can go to to vote for a local girl ( Kiley) with special needs to win a trip to kinda of a special needs theme park.
She has Cerebal Palsy and suffers from daily seizures and it would be the trip of a life time for here if she could win...so please vote for her....Thanks

You won't get any spam mail or anything...
Morgan's Wonderland | Special Needs | Family Fun | We Are Teachers


got my vote, too...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kajojel for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #409 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

815 is an area we have to keep an eye on....if we get above it and hold we might work our way up to 850 again.

for today I'm thinking 823 might be the topside....if it goes up and 817.5 is a spot to keep an eye on though not real strong I don't think

On the downside if we get past 802 then we might work down to about 792 and before that 798
I'm thinking long but will take whatever comes.....

Edit: looking like it's turning into a trend day up so.....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #410 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

The trend day up idea might not be correct....more like a chop everybody to death on the way up day



Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #411 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
815 is an area we have to keep an eye on....if we get above it and hold we might work our way up to 850 again.

for today I'm thinking 823 might be the topside....if it goes up and 817.5 is a spot to keep an eye on though not real strong I don't think

On the downside if we get past 802 then we might work down to about 792 and before that 798
I'm thinking long but will take whatever comes.....

Edit: looking like it's turning into a trend day up so.....

Well I guess 817.5 was better than I thought.....remember though that 815 is the line that needs to hold if this sucker is going up.....

It might dance around here for a while...so be aware of that

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #412 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

This week’s 3-day rally took out the last protruding highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 and S&P and it is this sort of technical move that must be respected as a signal that the recent one-month downtrend is reversing back up within a three-month sideways trend.



What makes this breaking of the lower highs interesting today, though, is that it has raised the level of the all-important third Bull Fan Line for the S&P, Dow and Russell 2000 and this strongly suggests, if not requires, a decline whether it comes tomorrow or next week and whether it is big or small in order to have these indices reclaim that trendline to prove the reversal of the 1-month downtrend.

Put most simply, it looks like the S&P and the other indices are about to make another sideways swipe down with degree being the preeminent question.

Should the S&P drop below 1387, it will confirm the lightly marked Bear Pennant for its target of 1359 and a level that is basically the level of the neckline of the Head and Shoulders shown above. In turn, it will put all attention on that bearish pattern and probably pretty quickly if the S&P fulfills the Bear Pennant completely with the H&S confirming at 1357 for a target of 1292.

One reason to think the S&P’s Bear Pennant will confirm by dropping below 1387 and will fulfill or come very close to fulfilling is shown not only in one of the inverse S&P ETFs but in the VIX.

It is showing a gorgeous Bull Pennant with a beautiful apex that appears capable of producing a sky rocket higher toward its target of 21 on confirmation of about 17.38.

In turn, a possible fulfillment of the VIX’s Bull Pennant may serve to confirm a larger Symmetrical Triangle for a target of about 29 and a level that will mean the S&P is going to confirm and fulfill its Head and Shoulders pattern either partially or completely.

Maybe the VIX avoids spiking higher on that Bull Pennant with complete failure probably near 13.66 as the S&P avoids its Bear Pennant and its H&S too, but more likely is the VIX using its Bull Pennant to confirm its Symmetrical Triangle – can be construed as an Inverse Head and Shoulders too – as the S&P uses its Bear Pennant to confirm its H&S for a potential drop down toward 1292 if not the index’s 200 DMA.



And it is for this reason that the VIX says sideways is about to get vicious.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #413 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I'll post some spots for monday later on....we got to 823 today which I thought might happen yesterday but doesn't matter anyway. It's possible that we get one more test of 815 and the next time it should hold pretty good so I would look to just go long there if we see it but the larger point is that we are likely going up to 850.....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #414 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received



This is a daily Ichimoku, as you can see it bottomed out on the lower end of the cloud and now popped through the top.

Based on where all the lines are you can't make the strongest case for going long but looking at some other stuff unrelated to Ichimoku would say that we're going up.

My thought is we are likely going back to 850....after that I'm not sure, we'll just have to see what things look like at that point but I'm not writing off that it won't rollover again.

All that being said the future cloud is bearish but is looking like it might twist and certainly will if price continues to climb.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #415 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received



For those of you that use Gabs method this is what we are looking at on the daily chart......

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #416 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

A few spots to keep an eye on...some of those fib numbers from the preceeding chart mainly the one at 836.
Also watch 832ish and on the dowside I mentioned previously to watch 815 but 817 might do something....kind of an area thing on this and then about 812

I can fine tune some spots once we get rolling on Monday.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #417 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Interesting day or maybe I should say UNinteresting day......we closed here right around the 815 area which I was thinking it would bounce off of and go higher but obviously didn't.

We'll just have to see what happens tomorrow, at this point the way it's playing out it just might be just a large scale chop fest with 815 being in the middle ?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #418 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #419 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Last week, the S&P attempted to reverse its 1-month downtrend and something that will be proven only after the S&P drops, whether minimally or noticeably, and then closes very roughly above last Friday’s intraday high.


Reason to believe this potential reversal may not happen is shown by the reversal of the S&P’s intermediate-term uptrend that was in place last week with its dip below the Bear Fan Line in red and a reversal that will reinitiate itself should the S&P drop below that trendline at 1394 today. It is this sort of drop that would strengthen the Head and Shoulders pattern drawn in above that confirms at 1357 for a target of 1292 and it is the Bear Pennant in blue that supports a continuation of the reversal of the S&P’s uptrend and a confirmation of the index’s H&S.

This Bear Pennant confirms at 1397 for a target of 1359 and it appears to be a pretty decent pattern and one that could cause the failure of the index’s odd but confirmed Double Bottom that carries a target of 1429.


In looking at the overall bearish weekly chart of the S&P above, it shows a Rising Wedge that is trying to confirm at 1357 for a target of 1075, but it leaves room for the possibility of a higher apex for that pattern before a potentially big drop, and thus it supports a correction-type decline at some point this year but provides less clarity on its own about the next month to three months.

Until, however, the S&P is back within that Rising Wedge at 1444 this Friday should it occur at all, it makes a degree of sense to believe it will attempt to confirm down without making that move up.

Right now, then, it seems that the S&P is more prone to at least a 5%+ drop with a potential correction following quickly behind.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #420 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

For the guy who PMed me earlier
Here's a few spots on ES...see if they are any good.
1395, 1399.5, 1403, 1407.75..........1391, 1387, 1382

6E............ 1.3249, 3238, 3226, 3208......3263, 3288

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #421 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
For the guy who PMed me earlier
Here's a few spots on ES...see if they are any good.
1395, 1399.5, 1403, 1407.75..........1391, 1387, 1382

6E............ 1.3249, 3238, 3226, 3208......3263, 3288

I goofed up on some of those...these are better .........ES 1397.5, 1407.5, 1413, 1392, 1384, 1379.25, 1374.

Edit: the 6e numbers are off too and don't feel like refiguring them .....to tired

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #422 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

looks like we might get full retracement....to 813.2 anyway.....I saw it early on but kind of wrote it off...

I'd kind of like to see that get hit before making another move at this point.

I'll post something later on when I get a better picture

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #423 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received




You'll like this one..

I spoke of this before and I'm sure most people wrote it off as some sort of voodoo or something but I'll share another example today.

See that pinbar on the left with the blue arrow under it....the top of that is at 820.4
The low was 811.9.....the difference is 8.5 points......add that difference (8.5) to the top of the pin (820.4) and what do you get.....828.9....guess what the high was at....

That's why yesterday I was saying in the chat it was going to 820+ but couldn't say when til I got some PA but you know what a mess it was.....but as soon as it popped over 820.4 and got retested you get the green light to go long if you couldn't do it any other way.

The short was after I got PA...namely that lovely pinbar at the top. (technically as of this writng the short is still in play...no PA to say get out yet.)

There is some other stuff but that gives you a glimpse......

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #424 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


This is another example of what I showed in the previous post that happened on Friday morning...
And one from Thursday morning below

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #425 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

What a bunch of garbage today.....ADP days suck, I generally sit on the sidelines on this day because it has been goofy for at least the past year or so. I migh tread lightly tomorrow too if I don't see some decent action in the first half hour.

Anyway for those that pay any attention to my ramblings, here we are at 815 again....I figured this might happen.
At this point I'm thinking we need to get past 805 or 828 and hold to get going somewhere...anything in between is probably just up and down and/or chopolla stuff.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #426 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

In looking at the hourly charts of the S&P and the VIX, it seems likely that there may be a small pop tomorrow morning, if not on the open ahead of ISM Services, before a bigger drop ensues later in the day and perhaps after the ISM Services print or maybe any such potential volatile trading will more to do with ECB messaging.



Specifically, the VIX is still carrying a gap at 16.60 and one that is likely to close before its intraday Double Bottom and Island Reversal and daily Bull Pennant try to spike the VIX higher. However, it is not necessary for the VIX to close that gap to move higher, but it does fit with its history and so it seems likely that the VIX drops down briefly to some level between 15.75 and 16.60 before popping higher on those patterns with there being a strong possibility the Double Bottom transforms into an Ascending Triangle or a Triple Bottom.

Irrespective the major near-term pattern in play above is the Bull Pennant that confirms at 17.38 still for a target of 21 with those other technical aspects suggesting it will not fail by dropping below 13.66 but rather will succeed in taking the VIX higher.

Such a spike higher in the VIX is likely in looking at the S&P’s briefly confirmed daily Bear Pennant and what looks like an intraday Head and Shoulders in the making.



This H&S is the equivalent of the S&P’s small Broadening Top with the real aspect to watch shown by the Bear Pennant that confirms at 1394 for a target of 1359 while it probably fails at 1422. What could cause it to fail is if the Ascending Trend Channel encasing the Bear Pennant turns out to be stronger to take the S&P higher, but it is the chart of the VIX that shows much more of a Bull Pennant than a Descending Trend Channel to support the decline in the S&P.

Levels are the best way to watch this bull and bear battle, however, and those are 15.75 and 17.38 in the VIX and 1394 and 1415 in the S&P.

Overall, though, both the S&P and the VIX appear to support a drop in the risk assets even if it follows a brief pop.

You can see the charts here:
S&P and VIX Support Pop Then Drop in Risk

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #427 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Just a heads up...I've got a few things on my chart saying that 818.1 is a spot to keep an eye on and if it stays above
I think 831.5 is in the cards ....which makes sense since 832 was a spot I wanted to keep an eye on anyway.

This one isn't as pretty as I like to see but something to keep in mind

Edit: I should say that if it goes over 818.1 you should be able to buy it there at a retest which usually happens pretty quick and you don't need much of a stop...maybe 10 ticks....( it's has to hold pretty good or just write it off, actually if it backs up more than 5 ticks you should probably get out) only do that if your comfortable doing that....use your own judgement if it looks good to you....and remember this isn't the best looking setup on this one so if you don't like it there will always be another one.......

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #428 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I guess I should have said in my last post to look for a short if 818 couldn't be had.....

anyway it's still a level to be watched when we get there.

My whole idea of this thing going back to 850 is getting a little questionable....I'll try and figure out what the heck is going on later along with more spots.....actually maybe I should stick with just the spots

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #429 (permalink)
 HighRise1202 
houston
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
 
Posts: 407 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 266 given, 274 received


kbit View Post
I guess I should have said in my last post to look for a short if 818 couldn't be had.....

anyway it's still a level to be watched when we get there.

My whole idea of this thing going back to 850 is getting a little questionable....I'll try and figure out what the heck is going on later along with more spots.....actually maybe I should stick with just the spots

A friendly reminder: looks like the three peaks and a domed house is about complete...except for the final wall down. No? That would be a drop of what?...200 points?!?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to HighRise1202 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #430 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
If George Lindsay's technical observation proves correct, the S&P 500 should embark on a sharp move higher. As I noted on June 24, 2011, in "Crazy and Fast Times With 'Fast Money,'"

At the same time the stock market enters this uncertain, murky period of less monetary and fiscal support in a somewhat broken, or at least wounded, state technically. While I don't rely on technicalanalysis, I recognize many do. While a lot of the "Fast" gang looks at technical levels in determining market direction, resistance and support, if I go technical I prefer looking at patterns rather than levels. And I highlighted my view that a George Lindsay Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern could be indicating an April 2011 top in the markets. The gang laughed!

By means of background, technical analyst Lindsay coined his 23-step "Three Peaks and a Domed House" technical pattern and gained celebrity because it pointed to a market peak in late 1968 -- and the largest stockmarket correction since World War II followed in the years after.

( Here are some historic examples of such a technical setup.)
Earlier this year I raised the issue that an unusually negative technical formation (in Stages 1 to 7) of Three Peaks and a Domed House might have indicated that an important market top was being made in the spring of 2011.

My observation caught the Fast Money team and a number of technically inclined analysts by surprise, as I tend to side with fundamentals.

The sharp downturn in stock prices in July (matching Stages 9 to 10) that followed provided an almost perfect fit to Lindsay's observed technical configuration.

But now (after possibly moving from Stage 1 to Stage 19) a positive setup and phase (from Stages 20 to 23) might be in order.

If the pattern of Three Peaks and a Domed House continues, a sharp upside move in the stock indices appears possible.

The chart below indicates that the technical pattern (though there was recently a slight undercut, just as there was a slight overcut in previous stages) is almost exactly synchronized. If history follows, we are about to move toward the domed house (and much higher stockprices) in the months ahead, as opposed to the doomed house mentioned yesterday by Dr. Bobby Marcin.

Below is a chart of S&P 500 cash year-to-date superimposed by Three Peaks and A Domed House. Please note the similarity between the S&P and Lindsay's technical configuration throughout this year.

S&P 500 and Lindsay's Pattern


Click to enlarge


Read more: Three Peaks And A Domed House: What The Classic Chart Pattern Is Indicating | Stocks And Markets | Minyanville.com


Just wanted to move this post up so everyone can find it

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #431 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


HighRise1202 View Post
A friendly reminder: looks like the three peaks and a domed house is about complete...except for the final wall down. No? That would be a drop of what?...200 points?!?

Wow, looks like we're on the last leg for sure here....if we bust through 780 watch out !

Thanks for pointing it out

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #432 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Just a random thought....If the three peaks and domed thing works out this is the starting point where the bulls who have basically gotten a free ride end up getting whacked.

Think back when the Euro took that ride up to 1.6 and everyone and thier brother just bought every dip and couldn't go wriong and made tons of cash....and then at 1.6 the party was over and how many lost thier ass trying to buy the dips on the way down. They got steamrolled...I knew some.

I guess it's like the Nasdaq thing and what will likely happen with Apple......same old thing.

Anyway, we are aware of this possiblity and will be prepared and will look to crush the bulls (not you of course @Silvester17).

I just wanted to say this as a reminder that it can't go up forever(I think)....it may not be done yet but we must recognize when it is as @HighRise1202 ( what is that...your apartment number ) may have.

The unknown thing is that the Fed might print it's ass off trying to save everything (as has been said numerous times) and that would change how things play out so.....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #433 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

How the heck did I miss this thread!! Can't wait to catch up...


I like the TF....


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #434 (permalink)
 redratsal 
Milan (I)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: FDAX,6E,CL,YM,NQ,ES
 
redratsal's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 1,215 given, 2,083 received


kbit View Post
Just a random thought....If the three peaks and domed thing works out this is the starting point where the bulls who have basically gotten a free ride end up getting whacked.

Think back when the Euro took that ride up to 1.6 and everyone and thier brother just bought every dip and couldn't go wriong and made tons of cash....and then at 1.6 the party was over and how many lost thier ass trying to buy the dips on the way down. They got steamrolled...I knew some.

I guess it's like the Nasdaq thing and what will likely happen with Apple......same old thing.

Anyway, we are aware of this possiblity and will be prepared and will look to crush the bulls (not you of course @Silvester17).

I just wanted to say this as a reminder that it can't go up forever(I think)....it may not be done yet but we must recognize when it is as @HighRise1202 ( what is that...your apartment number ) may have.

The unknown thing is that the Fed might print it's ass off trying to save everything (as has been said numerous times) and that would change how things play out so.....


I am with you since april 4th 2011

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to redratsal for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #435 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


Kind of looking through the weeds on this one...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #436 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


slightly larger time frame.......if you weren't already in it....... around 790 would be nice....

It goes without saying it's Friday afternoon...NFP so ......
(disregard the blue arrow...can explain that some other time)

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #437 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

Hey, kbit...

Do you remember a 7 point gap down to start the over night session on 4-8 Sunday evening - Following
Good Friday.

I have never seen a gap like that. Just wondering if my replay data is goofy

thanks


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #438 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Had to post this...best video I've seen in a long time
.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #439 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


tderrick View Post
Hey, kbit...

Do you remember a 7 point gap down to start the over night session on 4-8 Sunday evening - Following
Good Friday.

I have never seen a gap like that. Just wondering if my replay data is goofy

thanks

Yeah, big drop on mine too....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #440 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post

slightly larger time frame.......if you weren't already in it....... around 790 would be nice....

It goes without saying it's Friday afternoon...NFP so ......
(disregard the blue arrow...can explain that some other time)

I guess I can tell you about that pin now(blue arrow) and maybe some of you figured out already....the top of the pin was 794.9
The important part is that it was a footprint as I call it and would get revisited as it just did today....the part I wasn't sure about on this one( and why I didn't say anything) was that I couldn't be sure where it would turn around with all the overwhelming negativity on Friday.

Edit: actually there is more to this story but I'll let you guys figure it out.....I will post something later on this

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #441 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


What todays Kase bar chart looks like

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #442 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received



Just a wild thought.....can you visualize that bottom as being a pipe bottom ? (granted there is no actual candle on the left but...)

Aside from that I'm curious to see what happens if we get over 795....we could work our way back to around 814 if that happens....
Feel free to disagree

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #443 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

In keeping with the whole déjà vu all over again theme of recent weeks, it makes sense to wonder whether this year’s peak was put in back on April 2 and a few weeks earlier than the May 2 and April 26 peaks of the previous two years in order of youngest to oldest.


If so, it would carry that theme of déjà vu to 2011 and 2010 with US economic data worsening into spring and summer as the liquidity effects of the previous year’s Federal Reserve aggressive policy moves wear off simultaneous to the “reemergence” of the sovereign debt and banking crisis in Europe.

Based on the way the two-year chart above is marked, it seems that the answer is, Yes, this year’s peak on the S&P has probably been put in considering the similarity between last year’s trading around a set of Bear Fan Lines on a multi-month Complex Head and Shoulders and Broadening Top formation and this year’s trading around a tighter set of Bear Fan Lines and a smaller Head and Shoulders pattern. Should this year’s bearish configuration start to fulfill down, it will take the S&P toward the 1292 target of that H&S or perhaps toward the 1075 target of the index’s unmarked Rising Wedge.

In turn, such a potential turndown in the S&P will probably match continued weak US economic data – again – and more disruption out of Europe that might mean a possible Greek exit from the Euro as bond yields soared – again –in Italy, Portugal and Spain to put further pressure on the health of European banks – again – until the Federal Reserve and the ECB are “forced” to inject more liquidity to keep this peculiar cycle going – again.

However, the S&P’s H&S could try to take out 1422 to fill out the Broadening Top aspect of its H&S and this would mean, clearly, that this year’s peak has not been put in, but such a possibility seems less likely in considering the upward-sloping bottom trendline/neckline of that H&S along with the fact that it does not appear to be a Complex H&S pattern and the only sort that is interchangeable with a Broadening Top.

When the S&P Bullish Percent Index is brought into this analysis, it appears to support the idea that 1422 is likely to mark the 2012 high on the S&P having dropped below the all-important sell signal at 70 while allowing for the sideways trading that has begun to take over the index in the form of that H&S.


This means that the index could trade for weeks if not months between 1340/1357 on the low-end of the range and 1415/1422 on the high-end of the range before potentially, and likely, breaking that sideways trading to the downside toward the aforementioned 1292 or even 1075.

Such a move to the downside after some sideways trading makes sense in the context of the VIX too with its current Symmetrical Triangle calling for narrowing range bound trading between 15.75 and 19.87 ahead of using that pattern to spike higher to fulfill its confirming Falling Wedge that carries a target of nearly 48.



A possible spike toward 48 in the VIX would probably mean a drop in the S&P well past 1292 and toward 1075 but one that may be reversed – again – this fall by some potential monetary policy move made by the Federal Reserve and the ECB considering the statistics of S&P performance in an election year.

Since 1952 and putting aside 2008, S&P returns during an election year were about 9.4% while including 2008 takes that figure down to 6.2% and these statistics put the S&P at 1397 and 1357, respectively, and this means that any big decline in 2012 is more likely than not to be reversed back up to some degree for more sideways – again.

Unless, of course, 2012 turns out to be a repeat of 2008 then it seems that the recessionary call of February 10’s Recession, Depression or Recovery? would turn out to be true this year rather passed into 2013 or 2014 as seems increasingly likely at this point with the relatively near-term when less relevant than the rather likely what of the S&P revisiting 640 or so.

Putting aside that longer-term call, it seems likely that the S&P has put in this year’s peak unless some sideways slop takes it briefly above 1422 in a potential peak that would make for that much more of a drop down.

https://www.peaktheories.com/some-more-forex-trading-facts/

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #444 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #445 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I'm still focused on 795 as being the number we have to get over to go up as I said in an earlier post...if we stay below that we remain bearish.
If we get a daily close under 780 things will start to get uglier....in the mean time watch 786, 781.5 and around 771.5.........on the upside watch 795 and 802

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #446 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Breaking news....
I have a footprint now at 788.7 (this is a short term deal).....I'd be looking for a bounce back up from about 786.2 back up to that.....it might go lower but the point is when it turns and goes up that's where it will go (788.7)

If it goes back to 788.7 at any point after you read this it's over......
Don't stay up all night watching...just see what happened in the morning and call me a nut if I'm wrong

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #447 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

It appears so, but it is a very fragile shot at this point and in the interests of time, let’s turn straight to the charts and levels starting out with the Russell 2000.


This is a great looking pattern and should succeed on that nice Spike Bottom/Hammer apex but it can be taken seriously only if the Russell 2000 confirms its Bull Pennant by rising above 796 for a target of 830 with the RUT lucky probably if it makes it to 820 on this pattern even as nice as it is.

Turning to the Dow, its Bull Pennant is nice but may have a bearish Hanging Man for its apex so confirmation is key at 13049 for a target of 13339 with a partial fulfillment at best likely here too should it confirm at all.



Now what is interesting in comparing the two charts above is the fact that the Russell 2000 hit the bottom trendline of its bearish Broadening Top while the Dow has not and perhaps this happens today as its last Rising Wedge hits its target of 12711. Should this happen, it will be truly interesting to see whether the Russell 2000 hangs flat or rallies even as the Dow drops and if so, it will provide a strong signal of another sideways swipe up.

On the other hand if the Russell 2000 drops and moves below multi-year support near 772, it will be similar to the S&P dropping below 1340 and a signal that all bets are off on how bearish things might become on the Broadening Tops marked in above that serve as apexes to 20%+ drop Rising Wedges. In other words, this situation is very tenuous and the levels must be treated with kid gloves.

Turning to the Nasdaq Composite and S&P for just levels without the charts, the Nasdaq’s Bull Pennant confirms at 2970 for a target of 3085 and the S&P confirms its Bull Pennant at 1374 for a target of 1415. Failure for the Nasdaq comes at 2885 and for the S&P below 1340.

Whether the equity index Bull Ps have a shot is to be seen, but it is pretty clear that the watching around the answer will be very, very exciting as immediate-term bullish aspects attempt to take on long-term and quite bearish aspects.


Do the Equity Index Bull Ps Have a Shot?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #448 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

How do have yours Set up for TF. I know the particulars are bit complex, but is it necessary to have the 3 segments
separated by the session template. I have been using "use instrument settings" lately and my pivots track fine.

What is the actual point of the session template? ....Indicator tracking?

thanks for any help.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #449 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


tderrick View Post
How do have yours Set up for TF. I know the particulars are bit complex, but is it necessary to have the 3 segments
separated by the session template. I have been using "use instrument settings" lately and my pivots track fine.

What is the actual point of the session template? ....Indicator tracking?

thanks for any help.

What do you mean by your pivots tracking and all that....could you explain it differently ?
you are throwing me a bit......remember, I am a unsophisticated trader

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #450 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


kbit View Post
What do you mean by your pivots tracking and all that....could you explain it differently ?
you are throwing me a bit......remember, I am a unsophisticated trader

Ha !! lol If you use daily pivot indy's, the Daily OHLC and SR will be based on the start and end times of
the RTH / ETH.. so, IF you have it incorrectly set, the pivots will be off. I know the TF has three different
segments. I just started up a VPS and a fresh install of NT and I don't want to set that monster up again.

What session template do you use in the Data series of your chart? Or do you not even worry about it?


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #451 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

So, I see you trade a 2000 tick bar chart? What would that translate to in minutes, would you guess ?

Sorry to hammer you with all these questions. I tend to bug people, I know


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #452 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


tderrick View Post
So, I see you trade a 2000 tick bar chart? What would that translate to in minutes, would you guess ?

Sorry to hammer you with all these questions. I tend to bug people, I know

Your not bugging anyone..ask anything you like or make any comment you wish....no problem here.

That's a hard question to answer only because tick bars only print after the designated number (in this case 2000) of trades have occured.....time is irrelevant so on real slow days where there isn't much trading going on a 2000 tick bar might last 20 minutes and on busy days they might last 5 minutes....during news events like NFP at 8:30 a bar can be printed in a second as an extreme example.

All that being said I would say on average lately it's in the 10 minute area, but that is a bit misleading only because in the first couple hours of the session they are like a 5m bar and in the afternoon more like 15 or 20m.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #453 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

The next time you have spare minute, would you glance at your Session Template in your Data Series and tell me
what it is set to?

Thanks


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #454 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


This is a daily Ichimoku
The TS is at 795.6 at the close today and will be somewhere around 794 I think at the open of tomorrows candle which would in my view mean that around 793 might be a good short entry....after this opens I'll get an exact number.

That's just one option...some could argue for already being short.

Aside from all that and just looking at where we are/closed today, I suspect we're going down and at the moment I have 752 as a target...( look at 780 as bieng the significant number here) naturally there will be bumps along the way and those I will figure out in the next post.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #455 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #456 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

It seems unlikely that any sideways slop bullish play that was showing itself to me in the equity index charts in the form of Bull Wedges comes into fruition any time too soon considering that the extended versions of those patterns – Falling Wedges – simply look ready to fall to Broadening Tops and Head and Shoulders patterns as is shown rather well with the Dow’s Broadening Top below.



This bearish pattern took the Dow briefly sideways with sudden death now seeming a reality with the pattern’s required top and bottom trendline touches in as it confirmed on a closing basis today dropping below 12711 for a target of 12083 with there being some shot the Dow goes down to 11800 for a 5%-type decline in the weeks ahead and one that will cause the Dow to dip back down below its 200 DMA as seemed likely based on the Russell 2000 back in early March.

Such a potential drop is the least of the Dow’s worries or that of the Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 or S&P when the bearish Rising Wedge that led to those topping patterns is considered with the S&P’s pattern confirmed for its target of 1075 and a potential drop of nearly 20% from today’s close.



Returning to the possible rescue of the Bull/Falling Wedge, who knows and who cares if it works at this point when considering what came of last year’s similar patterns and the reason a partial or complete fulfillment toward 1415 to 1422 has been labeled sideways slop that was best to be avoided and particularly now with the unmarked H&S fulfilling toward its 1292 target and that Rising Wedge good to go.

Supporting the 200 DMA dance at a minimum in the S&P is the $BPSPX that is set for 50 if not 40 with its dive through the 200 and 40 looking a lot more likely than 50 and probably even 20 standing a better chance of being hit than 50.


In turn, this probably means the S&P is going to fulfill its H&S and then a bit more to drop down below its 200 DMA to then find a bid and bounce for a bit or simply head down on that bearish Rising Wedge.

It is the VIX that supports either scenario too with the Symmetrical Triangle/Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern showing as confirmed to the upside for a target of about 27.5 and just above its 200 DMA while its bullish Falling Wedge is confirmed and good to go up toward its target of 48.



Whether that Falling Wedge fulfills in one shot as happened in 2010 or in two as was the case in 2011 is to be seen but its fulfillment on a radical spike higher toward 48 will be seen this year as the S&P drops down toward the 1075 target of its Rising Wedge.

And it is all of these technical aspects that suggest getting ready for the Q2 200 DMA dance by going defensive, getting short or just sitting this one out on the sidelines.

Get Ready for the Q2 200 DMA Dance

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #457 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

In light of the stupidness that unfolded today all I'm looking at now is 772.5 as a spot that needs to hold to get us back to 778.9
776.3 might be a bump or a wall between those two....other than that just winging it

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #458 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

With that swing down last night we are better posistioned now to get to 779.2 (was 778.9)

772.7 is the spot we need to stay above now.....let's see what happens, ....remember it has to get over and stay above 772.7
On the downside 763 and 759 ....and 752

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #459 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Tomorrow should be real interesting with the Facebook thing going on....I think all the talking heads are saying the market will go up.... because of this a red flag pops up for me on this.
You know what happens when everybody says it's going up.....

Maybe it will though because the 752 we hit might offer enough support for tomorrow.
758.7 looks like a spot that that if we got over could run us to the 766.5 area and then we have to see what would happen from there( this is kind of weak one)....refer to my last couple posts for some other spots above that.

I have 736 on my brain down below....not sure why at the moment but I probably have a reason for it so....
I'll try to figure some other downside spots later.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #460 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,975 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,441 given, 98,184 received


kbit View Post
Tomorrow should be real interesting with the Facebook thing going on....I think all the talking heads are saying the market will go up.... because of this a red flag pops up for me on this.

My gut is we'll see 1320 on ES Friday before we see 1290. But who knows. I think it is a good risk/reward, so I am taking it.

But with Facebook IPO, OpEx, Friday after a terrible week, then who knows. Anything can happen. In particular at the close.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #461 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I thought I might post this now before I forget....752 is looking like a spot that would be a magnet on monday....again this one might be weak but if nothing else could be used as a target.

If it gets above it and holds then we can aim for at least 760 but I can fine tune that later if we do in fact get above 752

Actually I suspect we might get more downside and visit 736( I still haven't figured out why that's in my head but it's likely a good spot)...this doesn't effect 752 in so far as having significance....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #462 (permalink)
 HighRise1202 
houston
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
 
Posts: 407 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 266 given, 274 received

What can a futures trader do with this? (I sold all my stocks. Thanks kbit, you saved me a bundle. )


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to HighRise1202 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #463 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


HighRise1202 View Post
What can a futures trader do with this? (I sold all my stocks. Thanks kbit, you saved me a bundle. )


It's looking kind of ugly and starting to play out for sure....If you look back at the last few posts I've done with spots that need to get taken out in order to see some topside ....none of them are....which is a bit unusual....meaning quite bearish (it's obvious anyway I suppose)

I just wonder how things will play when Bernanke steps in again.....he's probably going to mess up that pattern....but maybe not, I don't know.

That's quite a complicated pattern and to have all those points match up as they have you would think it will fulfill itself at this point despite Bernanke....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #464 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
I thought I might post this now before I forget....752 is looking like a spot that would be a magnet on monday....again this one might be weak but if nothing else could be used as a target.

If it gets above it and holds then we can aim for at least 760 but I can fine tune that later if we do in fact get above 752

Actually I suspect we might get more downside and visit 736( I still haven't figured out why that's in my head but it's likely a good spot)...this doesn't effect 752 in so far as having significance....

Now that it's over 752 I have 761 as a target but have to get past 758.6 to get there....I'm not sure how this will work....so just keep those spots in mind and see how it goes

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #465 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

We might have a short at 757.2....so keep an eye on that, might get messy here

Maybe I should mention that 752.2 would be a target for a short.....I just don't want to get everyone confused here....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #466 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Yuck....stuck in the middle.....be careful about shorting ( if your considering it) at 757.2....actually you should pass ( if you"re short already from the 58.6 area just keep a tight stop) probably because of the 861 thing but if it does run up to 61 it should then come back to 757.2 afterward....that's kind of how it works .

I realize without looking at my chart you might not see how things are playing out as I do but just remember the spots and make your own judgement

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #467 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
Yuck....stuck in the middle.....be careful about shorting ( if your considering it) at 757.2....actually you should pass ( if you"re short already from the 58.6 area just keep a tight stop) probably because of the 861 thing but if it does run up to 61 it should then come back to 757.2 afterward....that's kind of how it works .

I realize without looking at my chart you might not see how things are playing out as I do but just remember the spots and make your own judgement

There you go....hit 61 and came back to 57.2....have to wait for next setup.

Actually if 58.6 holds now the next stop should be 765.8 and then 772.7 ...just keep that in mind on the upside

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #468 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I just realized that 755.5 is now a spot that needs attention at some point so I am thinking to look for a short down to that then maybe a long from there.....see how it goes

Remember to look for some kind of PA and play it safe.....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #469 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Haven't seen anything to jump on for a short that looks any good...I guess it's headed for 765.8............


Edit: By the way for you ES guys that probably translates to 1317.25...I think, though it seems as though it would go a bit higher

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #470 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Just thought I would post a few spots to keep an eye on for the ES...1317.25, 1324, 1335.5 down below 1310, 1304.25, 1298.75

On the TF 765.8, and 778.9 might be the spot where this rolls over and really starts going down and gets ugly.

The 772 I mentioned previously looks like crap after I took another look so see how it goes with that one.

Below watch for 755.5 and then the 752.2

These spots should be good but something seems wierd here so as usual make sure you get PA before jumping on anything.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #471 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Those ES numbers I posted last night are skewed...sorry

These should be better 1319.75, 1325.25, 1329.50, .................1310.50, 1307.25, 1302.75, 1297.25

I think the last time I posted for the ES I did the same thing.....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #472 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I was just looking at those ES numbers I posted...they suck...sorry I posted them.

Anyway back to the TF where I belong.....now 766.9 is a spot as is 765.8 which just got hit....just plain messy stuff.

I'm not going to try to explain what's going on, I'll just wait til tomorrow when some of it gets cleaned up and start fresh.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #473 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Hopefully we will hit 755.5 on this drop....then we will at least have that out of the way

Edit: by the way...as of this writing it came within 2 ticks....that's not close enough on this, it has to get printed.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #474 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
I just realized that 755.5 is now a spot that needs attention at some point so I am thinking to look for a short down to that then maybe a long from there.....see how it goes

Remember to look for some kind of PA and play it safe.....

Ok, it got hit so now we wait for some kind of signal either way now....in the middle of all that crap that happened above are a few new spots that I posted earlier so we should keep those in mind.

It can go lower here and that doesn't matter....like I said we have to wait for PA....we have targets

It may bounce off 754.1......

Edit: I should be more clear on this one...I'm looking to long up to 762.6 and then if it gets taken out and holds above will be looking for 771 ish...can nail down the exact spot if we get above 762.6

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #475 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I suspect I'm talking to myself at the moment but I am ultimately looking for that 778 number to get hit to really get a short bias ...providing it rolls over of course....just saying that's a good spot to focus on.

In the mean time I'm seeing if I can't get some longs up to that point.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #476 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

All this Greece stuff is messing with my wonderful plans.....We just have to shift to see how it goes mode....gonna lay low for a while

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #477 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
Ok, it got hit so now we wait for some kind of signal either way now....in the middle of all that crap that happened above are a few new spots that I posted earlier so we should keep those in mind.

It can go lower here and that doesn't matter....like I said we have to wait for PA....we have targets

It may bounce off 754.1......

Edit: I should be more clear on this one...I'm looking to long up to 762.6 and then if it gets taken out and holds above will be looking for 771 ish...can nail down the exact spot if we get above 762.6

We're conming up to 762.6........refer to post 474 for the details
I would expect it to stop here ....

Edit:...I guess it's on a stop run so ......

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #478 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I'm looking for 771 now but would like to see a test of 762.6 to reload....unfortunately I dumped it already

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #479 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

778.9 is a spot to keep an eye on.....
I'll post more stuff tomorrow...busy today

Edit: just noticing that 781.9 might get hit but 778.9 is more important.......
actually 769.8 wants to get hit.....came within a tick a couple times but until it gets printed it is still technically valid.

I don't know if this helps or confuses everyone....see how it goes

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #480 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
778.9 is a spot to keep an eye on.....
I'll post more stuff tomorrow...busy today

Edit: just noticing that 781.9 might get hit but 778.9 is more important.......
actually 769.8 wants to get hit.....came within a tick a couple times but until it gets printed it is still technically valid.

I don't know if this helps or confuses everyone....see how it goes

I wonder how many of you thought I was nuts with me saying 769.8 wanted to get hit....

I'm not saying I called anything here....my point is that the market can easily mislead us

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #481 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Just taking a quick look around....all I see is 778.9 as being a spot and maybe at 781.9 if that didn't hold tight.

One down below at 753.2 so.....My guess is that we get up to the higher spots and then work our way down.

Actually if you recall I have been looking for a short at 778.9 for a little while now so I'm going to look seriously for something there and then if/when it rolls over we should see some pretty good downside (more than just 753.2).

Edit: I expect it to at least hit 781.9 before we get a sustained drop so if I see it falling before that I will still consider a long up to that.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #482 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received



Wanted to throw this out so you can see that the 780 area has significance

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #483 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
Just taking a quick look around....all I see is 778.9 as being a spot and maybe at 781.9 if that didn't hold tight.

One down below at 753.2 so.....My guess is that we get up to the higher spots and then work our way down.

Actually if you recall I have been looking for a short at 778.9 for a little while now so I'm going to look seriously for something there and then if/when it rolls over we should see some pretty good downside (more than just 753.2).

Edit: I expect it to at least hit 781.9 before we get a sustained drop so if I see it falling before that I will still consider a long up to that.

I'm still going with this...aside from that I would recommend caution tomorrow and I suppose Fri as well, likely to be nasty conditions

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #484 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

After fulfilling its recent Head and Shoulders pattern by hitting 1292, it seems that the S&P is now quite vulnerable to the downside on the Bear Pennant discussed at length last week.


Should this pattern remain good, it is likely to cause the S&P to drop closer to 1300 at some point today or tomorrow while preventing the index from rising above last week’s high of 1328. This Bear Pennant confirms at 1292 for a full target of 1162 and this pattern is most progressed in the Nasdaq Composite and perhaps the index to watch around whether it might work or not in most equity-related charts.

But the reason to look at the S&P’s Bear Pennant is above is shown in the weekly chart of the VIX that is showing a potential Pipe Top pattern that confirms at 19.98 for a target of 14.82 and a possibility that suggests the S&P’s Bear Pennant will fail, as all of the equity Bear Pennants fail, to a possible Falling Wedge that is the extended version of the Bull Wedge pointed out a few weeks ago that confirms at 1374 for a target of 1422.


On the other hand, reason to believe that the VIX’s Pipe Top will fail is shown by the confirmed Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that remains confirmed above about 21 for a target of about 31 and a level that probably matches the S&P’s Bear Pennant hitting its 1162 target or thereabout.

Watching the VIX today, then, may provide important clues around how the S&P will trade in the days and weeks ahead with its weekly chart supporting the bearish outlook to suggest that the VIX’s Pipe Top will fail.


Based on the candle set-up of the last two weeks, it is very difficult to see the S&P defying that apparent heaviness and something that probably means the S&P will not rise above last week’s high of 1328, and certainly not 1351, but rather trade sideways between 1292 and one of those two levels before cascading down on the Bear Pennant and a pattern that presents as a Descending Triangle in the weekly chart. In trying to see what could cause the S&P to rise from its recent lows to take out those aforementioned levels is very challenging in weekly form with the Falling Wedge not showing well if at all.

Overall, then, and despite the VIX’s complicated chart, the S&P is headed for 1162 sooner rather than later.

S&P Headed for 1162 Sooner Rather Than Later

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #485 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

This may come as a surprise, but this is actually not true. What is true is the charts of the financial markets analyzed in this work are bearish, have been bearish – overwhelmingly bearish – for years and will remain bearish until the risk asset inflation trade of 1995 to 2007 made possible by the world’s disgusting 30-year borrowing binge is flushed from the financial markets and this requires either a crash or a severe correction with the difference being around tempo and timing.

Also true is the fact that I would be prefer to be bullish being an optimist and a mainly happy person by nature as is probably pretty evident on TV even as talking about these horribly bearish charts that point to a pretty uncomfortable fundamental “what” to come. That “what” is a severe global recession, or possibly a depression, and one that should have stuck around from the Great Recession but was eased by the extraordinary liquidity efforts of the world’s central banks and most notably the Federal Reserve.

Such easing of the dis-ease created by the natural consequences of the world hitting the finite limits of its balance sheet, and something that is verbally and visually detailed in last July’s Why QE3 Is Inevitable, was the appropriate treatment relative to the potential condition of a prolonged global recession and/or depression because without the Fed’s aggressive actions there is little question in my mind that we would be in a global depression right now and the S&P would have dropped to the 100 to 425 target of its severe Double Top from the last decade and the impetus to all of this work.

It’s not that I want to be bearish, but the charts were overwhelmingly bearish back in 2007 when first stumbling upon that pattern that pointed clearly to a crash and the charts are about as bearish today and this is why pretty much every chart analyzed in these notes is bearish. Even though it will take a crash or correction to get there, I truly look forward to the day when it is possible to look at the charts and see genuinely bullish patterns that are not a reflection of the Fed’s stimulus and charts that match an economy that has corrected for all of that debt of the last 30 years to support old-fashioned organic growth that is not dependent on the government. In fact, my favorite charting over the last few years was my bullish call in late 20120 on the QE2 Rally and it was an excellent lesson to have learned that I should have stuck with my first instincts on the gruesomely bullish IHS reaction to last August’s correction and a pattern that delivered on Operation Twist and last December’s LTRO with the latter making the real near-term difference.

Fed policy and global central bank liquidity actions are unlikely to make the long-term difference, though, and this takes us to a relatively near-term look at why the financial market charts remain so bearish today.



It’s not easy to look at that long-term monthly chart of the Russell 2000 honestly and admit that it is trading in a nice Head and Shoulders pattern just as it did back in 2006 through 2008, but this is the truth and it is highly likely that its current Head and Shoulders pattern will confirm by cascading through the neckline near 602 for a target of 335 and actually a bit lower than its 2009 low.

Similarly, it is not fun to look at the chart of the XLF and the ETF representing the financial sector and point out its severe Broadening Top that will very likely confirm near $10 for a conservative target of $5.


Nor is it enjoyable to turn to my favorite index – the S&P – and talk about its relatively small but still devastating Double Top pattern with its long-term Sideways Trend Channel suggesting a drop below 2009’s lows even though the Channel allows for another peak near 1550 before its likely-to-be-devastating decline.


Frankly, it is exhausting at times to write about these charts exactly as each presents in an inescapable long-term context and it would be more fun and less tiring to write about charts that only wanted to go up but that is simply not what’s showing right now.

What’s showing are overwhelmingly bearish charts that suggest all of that bad debt and over-borrowing of the last 30 years must be cleaned from the system completely and not just tucked away in some sort of SIV or sitting on balance sheets forgotten and a cleansing that will be accompanied by a recession at best.

This means that all of the S&P’s sideways slop trading in April, May, perhaps June and July as was the case last spring and summer for 3% up here and 8% up there is unlikely to amount to much in the perspective of a long-term monthly chart that is legitimately calling for a 30-50% correction and one that could be a real crash if it comes quickly on some unfortunate and “unseen” even out of Europe. For better or worse and ultimately for the better, this sort of cleansing correction is confirmed by the long-term charts of the other equity indices along with the CRB Index, the VIX and the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index and it appears likely for this year or next.

And so some may call me a bear, but the real bear is roaming in these charts leaving tracks that are too hard to ignore even though it might be temporarily easier to do so.


Some Call Me A Bear

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #486 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Looking like 753.2 will come into play sooner than I thought.....For the record though, and it's becoming more of a stretch here but I'd still like to see 778.9

tomorrow should be interesting whatever happens

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #487 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
Looking like 753.2 will come into play sooner than I thought.....For the record though, and it's becoming more of a stretch here but I'd still like to see 778.9

tomorrow should be interesting whatever happens

Now that we took out 753.2 maybe the 778.9 is the target now....this isn't playing out like I was hoping for originally but doesn't really matter.

There are a couple more spots now which I'll post later on.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #488 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,975 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,441 given, 98,184 received

Just FYI, I don't post in this thread simply because I am too cheap to pay ICE for Russell data. I think they made a stupid business decision, and even though I get Russell from my broker feed, I have everything setup to use IQFeed. And because of the decision made by ICE last year, or two years ago (?), I would have to pay for the privilege of receiving TF data.

No thanks.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #489 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


Big Mike View Post
Just FYI, I don't post in this thread simply because I am too cheap to pay ICE for Russell data. I think they made a stupid business decision, and even though I get Russell from my broker feed, I have everything setup to use IQFeed. And because of the decision made by ICE last year, or two years ago (?), I would have to pay for the privilege of receiving TF data.

No thanks.

Mike

I hear and understand...further, you're not alone in making that choice.
I still trade it and bend over on the fees because it just suits me better than the other indicies....believe me I think the fee thing sucks and don't blame anyone for walking away.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #490 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
Now that we took out 753.2 maybe the 778.9 is the target now....this isn't playing out like I was hoping for originally but doesn't really matter.

There are a couple more spots now which I'll post later on.

The other spots are 763.8 and 774......these would be more like just targets and not necessarily going to stop on a dime there type thing.

That being said I would look to go short at the 763.8 area if possible.....how far it goes I don't know

On the downside is 750.8 which if your shorting down to is fine but don't try to just go long there without PA

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #491 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I can see I'll have to do some homework now with the NFP drop....the prospects for upside are getting pretty bleak.

I have 749-749.5 (messsy area) and 751.8.

On the downside I don't know yet....I'll post when I figure something out.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #492 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
I can see I'll have to do some homework now with the NFP drop....the prospects for upside are getting pretty bleak.

I have 749-749.5 (messsy area) and 751.8.

On the downside I don't know yet....I'll post when I figure something out.

Looks like the 49 area has stopped it....if you're not in ....maybe a retrace to 47.5 and look around there for something....I did get a pinbar off 749 but still have 751.8 up there so just keep your eyes on it if you jump in on a retrace

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #493 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

just looking over a weekly chart and it looks like 727 ought to do something.....there are a few spots around 728-730 but 727 looks better

On the daily 724 might be a good spot then maybe 708 and of course 700

I'm just taking a qiuck look here but if something better shows up I'll post it later

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #494 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
Looks like the 49 area has stopped it....if you're not in ....maybe a retrace to 47.5 and look around there for something....I did get a pinbar off 749 but still have 751.8 up there so just keep your eyes on it if you jump in on a retrace

I'm showing 744.2 now as a potential spot but it looks pretty weak and I don't like the idea of chasing but will watch what happens there if it gets hit soon...if it keeps dropping (to 740 lets say) forget about it.....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #495 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
I'm showing 744.2 now as a potential spot but it looks pretty weak and I don't like the idea of chasing but will watch what happens there if it gets hit soon...if it keeps dropping (to 740 lets say) forget about it.....

stay away from this....it might work but now showing it would stall at 742.8 and turn into a yo-yo probably....maybe not but it's coming into lunch and why take the chance....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #496 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
stay away from this....it might work but now showing it would stall at 742.8 and turn into a yo-yo probably....maybe not but it's coming into lunch and why take the chance....

Well if any of you were watching you saw that 744.2 spot hold and after lunch could have jumped on it...I did post something in the chat for a target but you all probably are out playing golf or something and I'm talking to myself anyway....Have a good weekend.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #497 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

I've got 747.5 as a spot ...looks like they won't be happy till they get it.
then 749.2 then 751.8 then 754.3
On the downside 732.2 and 730.2

In between the upper and lower numbers is anybodys guess....messy

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #498 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Even though it is tempting to think that some of the best trading available is by “trading the range” up and down, this is really more of a myth unless done for a very small profit and probably in truth a loss and why trade for a loss?

Right now it’s nearly irrelevant since there is no real range to “play” and one of the very pitfalls around this myth, but it may feel like there’s a range with the recent Dead Cat Bounce after two months of actual range trading. Before looking at the charts as to why there is not a good range to trade right now, though, let’s turn to why it’s not a good idea even when there is some sort of range by considering what is described about range trading in Technical Analysis and one of the primary texts used to study for the CMT.

“Trading within a range is difficult. Although many books suggest it as a strategy, it is almost impossible for the nonprofessional to profit through range trading.”

This book then goes on to describe why it is so tough to trade the range for a profit including the challenges of identifying a range that can be traded as it is relevant, the fact that operating costs typically eat into profits and the difficulty of identifying a decent stop-loss.

“Thus, most traders stay away from trading within a trading range and instead wait for the inevitable breakout and the beginning of a trend.”

Clearly the pitfalls of “trading the range” are demonstrated above while the breaking of the directionless sideways trend into a near-term downtrend offered, and probably will continue to offer, decent profits from the short side or at least defense from the sidelines.

The reason for this topic tonight, though, is shown by that Descending Trend Channel and the reason it feels like there is a range to trade right now and this is worth noting only because this is the only kind of range trading espoused by Technical Analysis only the espousal says pick a side.

Put otherwise, choose to trade the Descending Trend Channel from one side – long or short – and why would anyone in his or her right mind choose to play a downtrend by trading its 3-5% pops when there is a generous downtrend that may just keep giving and giving? Such a sentiment is expressed a bit more formally by the authors of Technical Analysis as follows.

“The one exception to range trading is channel trading. A channel is a trading range tipped at any angle such that it trends upward or downward. One can trade these channels back and forth but only in the direction of the channel trend.”

Returning to my less scholarly language, stick with the trend and don’t try to be a hero by scalping 3-5% – have personally learned through painful past experience that this does not work for long even if a swing or two is captured – in the context of a trend that could take the S&P down by 40% ultimately.


After all, the S&P is showing a severe near-term downtrend, even in its monthly chart, that comes in the context of a reversing intermediate-term uptrend that is at the top of a sideways trend with not one bullish aspect to be found in that description including some sort of 3%+ pop in the days ahead that may not come at all.

Overall, then, the perils of “trading the range” really are irrelevant right now with no range to trade unless you stick with the trend of the S&P’s new but probably long-lived Descending Trend Channel.


Perils of “Trading the Range”

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #499 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received


kbit View Post
I've got 747.5 as a spot ...looks like they won't be happy till they get it.
then 749.2 then 751.8 then 754.3
On the downside 732.2 and 730.2

In between the upper and lower numbers is anybodys guess....messy

The next spot up looks like 763.7...I don't see anything in between but.....

Edit: I'd be careful here....these spots aren't being repected to much on this run up so.....

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #500 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,902 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,294 given, 3,358 received

Looking like we might have the top here...763.7 respected...keep your eyes open

Started this thread Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Emini and Emicro Index > TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes


Last Updated on April 28, 2020


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

April

Seven Trading Mistakes Solved With Smart Trading Tools w/Brannigan Barrett

Elite only
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts