Sorry if my previous posts weren't to clear...just got back from lunch and in the heat of the moment kind of thing didn't spell it all out.
Anyway at this point on Monday I guess we'll have to watch around 807 and 797(which I might change my mind on after I spend some time eyeballing the whole situation)
I'll post something this weekend
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I have to tell you, the levels you're posting are rather impressive. especially that 798. great job.
also need to tell you, I don't like that move in tf. someone else already mentioned in another thread about the dow transport lagging behind. for me tf and the dow transport are leading indexes.
I still remain extremely bullish, but might have to fight a pullback in the near term, if those 2 indexes don't show any improvement soon.
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kbit, do you have any idea what 802.5 was. I did not find any logical reason why price stopped there at around 12:26 EST. After that, price retraced to Yesterday Low at 805.5 and finally dropped to a previous area of demand which i was watching for a long.
I agree with you on the bullish idea ...big picture wise.
I know it's been kind of wierd with the TF dragging it's butt...as you know I've been witing for some kind of pullback but the ES and others have been holding it up...anyway, like you say we just take it day by day.
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I'll have to scroll back through my charts and post what I saw that told me that was a spot.
I do remember pointing it out when it happened. That is to say,and it probably will sound goofy but on the way up through there whenever it was that they left what I call a "footprint"
I'll find it and show you this weekend.
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TIYF, I found the post I did (Feb 1st) and I'm looking back at my chart but something must have changed with my old data because I can't see it now...but it was there at the time otherwise I wouldn't have said anything.
The next time I see a "footprint" I will post a chart right away so you can see what it looks like. sorry.
Like last week, the "dumb money" remains extremely bullish and the "smart money" is bearish. What is also certain is that the bulls remain in control, yet the best gains are clearly behind us. What is uncertain is what happens when the music stops - will you find a chair to sit in or will you need a parachute?
The 2010 liquidity love fest ended in the May 5 flash crash, and the 2011 version saw the SP500 drop 18% in 3 weeks. I ask myself everyday: if I am buyer today will I be able to get out of this market safely and without a parachute? Without a pullback to buy in to, I have my doubts.
The “Dumb Money” indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator shows extreme bullishness.
Figure 1. “Dumb Money”/ weekly
Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore “entire market” value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: "Insider selling levels remain elevated, however, conviction lessened slightly this past week and there were modest increases in the number of buyers and companies with buying.
The biggest change occurred within the S&P 500, where a bust of buying was followed up this past week with a near record number of weekly sellers. The Materials sector was one of the leading sources of selling and buying within the Banking industry decreased suddenly and dramatically."
Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds.
When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall. Currently, the value of the indicator is 71.72%.
Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. Values greater than 58% are associated with market tops. It should be noted that the market topped out in 2011 with this indicator between 70% and 71%.
Figure 3. Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear/ weekly
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Little lazy today...don't feel like doing any homework....813 looks like a spot to watch on the downside we're looking at 790 for a target but that might change to even a lower number.
for some reason I have 787 floating around my head but can't remember why at the moment....something I looked at a few days ago.
I'll try to post something more informative tomorrow
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As early as February 9, the strange sideways consolidation showing in the Russell 2000 was discussed here and then dissected as the congestion turned into a Double Top and then into a Symmetrical Triangle last week into early this week.
That last pattern began to confirm to the downside earlier this week only to create the Symmetrical Triangle marked in last night that did rather well for itself today as shown above with the pattern confirmed to the downside for its target of 790. Perhaps more important, though, is the fact that the Russell 2000 is undeniably below its third Bear Fan Line in red and this signals a reversal of the index’s near-term uptrend and it was this sideways trading that was noted as a reason to think the risk rally could be at risk in Tuesday night’s A Breakout, Holdbacks and the RUT. Summed up, the RUT seems to be stuck in a rut and it may not bode so well for risk.
Equally worth noting is that when its recent trading is viewed in the context of the sideways trend that held it captive for much of the first half of last year, record highs and all, perhaps the greater significance of a possible drop down to 790 is the likelihood of the Russell 2000 dropping down toward the bottom of that range near 771.
In turn, this potential 4% decline for small cap may signal a 5-10% decline for the other indices that have been somewhat shielded by AAPL with the Dow showing some disguised sideways weakness similar to what’s taking place in the RUT, 13000 and all, and perhaps for the lack of that protection too.
The bigger problem with the Russell 2000’s recent downturn, though, is showing in the seeming right shoulder it creates for a multi-year Head and Shoulders pattern and one that was detailed in February 10’s Recession, Depression or Recovery?
At that time, the pattern was more about projection whereas at this time, there’s still some projection involved, but there’s a good bit of reality as can be seen in the weekly chart on the following page.
This pattern is absurd like AAPL’s Rising Wedge along with all of the other extreme bear patterns showing in charts everywhere that call for 50%+ declines and to a degree that it may actually start to make sense to begin thinking about that kind of decline happening for real. It may be early, but now is the time to think about it, not when it happens at some point later this year or in 2014 if it is reinflated into the future.
Be that as it may, there’s no question that the Russell 2000 is showing the structure of a classic Head and Shoulders pattern and it is similar to the pattern showing, funny enough, in basic materials, copper and many other market segments that are seemingly unrelated to small cap.
What relates all of these charts, of course, is the disgusting greed and consumerism made possible by supply side economics, perhaps, that was so outrageous that it actually hit the impossibility of the infinite slope in the near-collapse of the system in 2008 and a collapse that is still coming but just in slow-motion waves unless the Fed manages to defy and redirect physics as it may.
Anyhow, the fact that the Russell 2000 is now showing a good skeleton for a beautiful Head and Shoulders that will try to take the index down to 350 and right around the level that confirms a truly massive Double Top also detailed in Recession, Depression or Recovery? may lend some reason to believe that 2012 will be a repeat of 2011 but with a possibly more corrective correction.
Should this prove true, one of the first truly strong technical signs of it is showing in a big H&S in small cap.
Is Apple going to $1,000 per share and dragging the market higher with it?
Sometimes one chart tells us more than a thicket of charts. Every analyst and punter seeks an "edge" by plotting and comparing innumerable indicators, ratios, correlations and data points. Sometimes all this complexity pays dividends, but if it did so consistently then 90% of hedge funds and mutual funds wouldn't be underperforming index funds. Sometimes a single chart says it all. Chart courtesy of the Macro Story. Any questions? Yes. Doesn't this mean that AAPL (Apple) is on its way to $1,000 per share based on iPad 3 sales, and with strong growth in GDP and corporate profits, the Dow Jones Industrials are going to 15,000 and the S&P 500 is heading for 1,500?Answer: If that's what you see in this chart, then that's what the chart means to you.
Sorry I haven't posted much lately...been busy doing some other stuff.
I guess 790 and 787 weren't all that great. I still haven't spent any time figuring the best spots so I would just look for the obvious like 793-4 and 798 on the downside 778 and 773
The Russell 2000 started to turn slightly sideways on February 9 as AAPL was just starting the most parabolic part of its recent and, perhaps ongoing, parabolic move up and it was at that time that it made sense to write a note titled RUT Struggles to Confirm Its IHS.
It was worth pointing out the fact that the Russell 2000 was balking below the official neckline of its Inverse Head and Shoulders, and the top trendline of its bearish Rising Wedge in blue, considering that the other indices had begun to confirm the IHS pattern showing in each and something that suggested the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq Composite were setting up a 10-15% move up rather than moving down by 15-20% on the aforementioned Rising Wedge.
Not so much with the Russell 2000 as it closed above the neckline of its IHS for just one day and then fell from that ascending trendline to favor, possibly, the bearish Rising Wedge riding on the back of its Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern made bad by October 27’s vision-for-a-plan-to-save-Europe rally.
In so doing the Russell 2000 continued to trade sideways and something that began to reverse its near-term uptrend last week with this small cap index falling below its set of Bear Fan Lines that show a trend reversal to the downside with that nascent reversal made a bit more obvious over the last three trading days and particularly today as the Russell 2000 closed below its 50 DMA.
This cross below its 50 DMA also served to confirm a Rounding Top with a conservative target of 750 and a level below the Russell 2000’s 200 DMA, confirm its bearish Rising Wedge pattern with a target of 602 and cement the right shoulder of this index’s possible Head and Shoulders pattern marked in dashes.
All in all, then, today was a pretty bearish set-up day for the Russell 2000 and one that may provide a bearish blueprint for the other indices that are all still well above the 50 DMA level in each and, in turn, signal that equity indices, and individual securities and ETFs by extension, may head down for a 200 DMA dance at some point in the weeks ahead.
Might this potential 5-10%-type drop in equities happen in one shot in the days ahead and as a reversal to the more bullish nature of January and February? Yes, absolutely, but there’s a good chance it could come in stages too with the Russell 2000 well back within its sideways range and something that is true of the S&P and Dow too.
Relative to the Russell 2000’s sideways range it appears headed to 771 at a minimum but this could translate into something much closer to the middle of its sideways range around 730 to signal that a much bigger bearish drop for equities could be ahead.
Such a signal will be provided, of course, if the RUT remains in a rut in the days and weeks ahead.
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the decline today normally wouldn't concern me too much. but there are a few things I don't like. like the warning of mrk because of the euro weakness. just hope not too many companies will follow. higher oil prices of course could hurt earnings as well. and if in fact earnings estimates are too high, then that would be a fundamental change for me.
always had to laugh when I read about those conspiracy theories. now here's mine: we found strong evidence that "quantitative tightening 1" officially started. this is an election year, and what president would like to have a burden of a $5 price tag at the gas pump. and since oil prices are not determined by supply and demand, the easiest way to put pressure on oil is to sell equities.
of course there were other reasons, like china's economy slowing down or once more greece with that deadline. nothing but cheap excuses if you ask me.
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Looks like silvester stepped in at the 93 area and ran it over the top....the guy won't give up
For tonight anyway right off the bat I'm expecting a dip to about 802 and then back up to 805, the 802 is a bit of a guess but wherever it turns the target is 805 on the return trip.
Being NFP tomorrow I don't want to stick my neck out with spots tonight...again just kind of watch the obvious ones.
I got to think 798 and 790 will play another role somewhere but it might not be tomorrow.
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OMG...what a torture session today....normally I would say tomorrow might be interesting but I suspect it might be only marginally better, Wednesday might be the good day...we'll see.
As far as spots to keep an eye on I still haven't spent much time figuring it out...
I'm going to post a chart later that will give a sense of the big picture.
Here is a chart with a footprint on it .....the pinbar with a following candle of same direction, notice it didn't pay anything/go anywhere.
That tells me that it will get visited again and actually be a midpoint for a trade.
Simply measure from the close of the second candle (the red line) to the high and deduct that same amount from the second candle close and you get your target of 818.5 in this case.
In the course of this trade another marker showed up which you can also see on this chart( not pointed out) but shows even better on my Kase bar chart which moved the target to 816.2
Some other time I will explain how that works but don't want to make this post to confusing.
As far as coming up with 824.1 on the long trade in action now, that's yet another explanation for later
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By the way, 824.1 is a target and that doesn't necessarily mean it will turn on a dime there....it might go further...always look for PA before initiating a trade. That being said you could watch that area for something but like I said I will be looking to exit this long there and then wait and see.....
I thought I would post a daily Ichimoku since its been a while...
Based on my observations over time I would say in about 10 days we should get a drop to at least the top of the cloud and more likely a move to the bottom or lower.
Take note of how nice was support at the KS a couple days back.
It has been some time since writing on this pattern that last showed itself imperfectly in the equity indices from late 2010 into the summer of 2011 with its “nine times out of ten” bearish result having shown itself rather well in August.
Last year’s pattern showed itself first in the Russell 2000 and a pattern that traded into a Flat-Bottomed Broadening Top while this year’s potential pattern is showing itself first in the Russell 2000 again only this time it is looking like an Orthodox Broadening Top and this means one more touch to both the top trendline and the bottom trendline before the Russell 2000 should drop from the top trendline down through the bottom trendline.
Clearly, though, as you can see by the chart above, there’s a good bit of trading left to this pattern before it might come into play in the second or third quarter and this trading will be all about a sideways range between about 775 and 865 before the pattern breaks if such sideways trading comes to be.
Nine times out of ten is not ten times out of ten, though, and so in these unusually liquid times, let’s consider a possible upside breakout that will probably confirm around 895 for a target of about 975 and a level that should not be dismissed as it could make the highest peak in a potential Broadening Top of all Broadening Tops detailed in February 10’s Recession, Depression or Recovery?
Sticking to the here and now, sort of, it is a matter watching to see whether the Russell 2000 confirms a now bigger Bear Pennant but with the same 785 target by dropping below about 830. From there if “there” should come, it is a matter of seeing whether the Bear Pennant fulfills as the Russell 2000 then drops a bit lower for that classic Broadening Top or maybe holds right at that level another Flat-Bottom Broadening Top before heading higher for that aforementioned round of sideways trading.
This pattern is barely showing in the other indices but there is enough of a skeleton in place that a possible fulfillment of the Bear Pennants at play could pop it this potential pattern out as has already started to happen in the Russell 2000.
Relative to the equivalent Bear Pennants in the Dow, Nasdaq Composite and S&P, each is pretty mangled at this point and really needs the intraday Bear Pennants detailed yesterday and today to confirm and fulfill to bring the bigger patterns back to some semblance of sense.
This means watching confirmation levels of 13166, 3100 and 1410 for targets of 13003, 3045 and 1388 in the Down, Nasdaq and S&P, respectively while the Russell 2000 should be watched more so from the standpoint of its still intact bigger daily Bear Pennant that again confirms at 830 for a target of 785.
Should that pattern confirm and fulfill in the Russell 2000, it will be even more appropriate at that point to say, It’s Back – The Broadening Top.
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'The current rally is running long; equities are due for a 3-5% pull-back' is how Deutsche Bank begins to give some context to the scale of the performance of stocks over the last four months.
Whether it be liquidity-fueled optimism, optically-pleasing macro data, crisis-fatigue, or just good old-fashioned back-up-the-truck-we're-all-in buying since the last 10% correction in November, the S&P 500 has rallied 22% - essentially unimpeded for 80 days without a drawdown.
In between 5% selloffs, the median rise in the S&P 500 is 10% and the duration is 56 days so this current rally is indeed getting long in the tooth (with a 2.5% retracement the best the bears have managed in 2012).
To get a better sense of how equities may perform after such a big rally, Deutsche identifies 8 similar cases to the current one when a 10%+ drawdown was followed by a 15%+ recovery: Jul-50, May-70, Dec-74, Aug-98, Sep-01, Oct-02, Feb-03 and Mar-09.
At the same point in the rally (i.e. after 3mo), the market continued to grind higher the next 3 months by 4% on average. So a move of this size and velocity (and smoothness) has only occurred 7 times in the history of the S&P 500 and a quick glance at some of those dates marks some notable periods in US economics (and global geopolitics).
Trough to Peak Returns between Two 5% Drawdowns - we are starting to get in to the best ones ever...
Number of trading days between Two 5% Drawdowns...
And the S&P 500 has only risen by more than this on six other occasions after a 10% drawdown...
and many of those were during some of the most crisis prone periods this nation has ever experienced.
Your right but I feel kind of stupid anyway....I went off half-cocked on that one...looking back after the fact I should have passed and kept my mouth shut.....it wasn't a real pretty setup.
Was a small hit so not a huge deal but I don't like mistakes...especially public ones
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These charts have been interesting to watch for many weeks now as the CRB Index’s Descending Broadening Formation traded out horizontally beyond what was reasonable into what seemed likely to form a Descending Triangle only to have it trade into a potential Double Bottom that might reverse much of that intermediate-term downtrend.
Only after today this Double Bottom possibility basically failed after having weakened severely over the last several weeks as the CRB Index traded back down below its 50 DMA with past dips below this moving average turning into extended stays of various lengths as can be seen in the chart above.
All of this would seem to be bearish for the commodity complex and probably it is, but before turning to that case that was made prematurely here many times this past fall and winter, let’s consider what might take the CRB Index back up in that reversal attempt and it would be a combination of a mangled-looking Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern with its right shoulder culminating in the apex of a bullish Falling Wedge. This latter pattern confirms around the 50 DMA at 316 for a target of 326 and the level that would confirm the possible HIS for its target of about 356.
Competing with the near-term Falling Wedge and the intermediate-term Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, though, is a long-term and seemingly confirmed Rising Wedge that was detailed in last October’s Correction In Commodities to Continue?
It is a challenging pattern to mark with just its last half highlighted in that weekly note and really not a Rising Wedge on its own and so to simplify matters a bit, it is shown with an Ascending Trend Channel that has been clearly breached to the downside starting last September.
Perhaps this multi-month breach of what had been an uptrend somehow reverses itself, but this will require an extraordinary move to some level between 375 and 400 in the months ahead and no easy feat as will be seen in the chart on the following page.
More likely is a continuation of the year-long downtrend and something that could be accelerated precipitously by the Symmetrical Triangle shown to the right.
Let’s look at both sides of this pattern, however, because if ever there was a pattern to catapult the CRB Index back into that Ascending Trend Channel it is this Symmetrical Triangle that confirms to the upside safely at 375 for a target of about 450. As extreme and outlandish and oh-so 2008 as that may seem, so, too, does the downside scenario that confirms at a seemingly more reasonable 292 but for a less reasonable target of about 220 and, ironically, very close to the target range of the full Rising Wedge between about 200 and 225.
Worth noting in the monthly chart shown above is a decent-looking and confirmed Pipe Top that carries a target of about 295 or so and a level that would tilt the already-bearish chart above into the even more bearish camp.
What makes all of this interesting to me beyond the fact that it may prove that October note to have been somewhat helpful putting aside the sideways trading of the last six months is the fact that it may make for the Fast Flight to Liquidity? called for back in December.
In turn, these charts support the thesis of a rising dollar and the 88 target of the dollar index’s confirmed Falling Wedge and this may tell us that this potential dollar strength may not be the kind to carry the stock market higher on a tide of economic health but rather a fear-driven flight to dollars.
Relative to watching some version of this scenario through the CRB Index, it makes sense to do so through broad levels and those are 292 and 326. Above the latter level and the potential flight to liquidity will have been averted but below the former level and it will be in effect most likely.
Should the downside scenario start to look like a reality with even a retesting of that 292 area, it may also make sense to remember that last year’s sell-off in commodities was three months ahead of the correction in the equity markets and a continuation of the correction that occurred in the commodity complex in May in what might have been a preview to an upcoming flight to liquidity.
It is for this reason that it is important to respect the CRB Index’s intermediate-term downtrend that remains very much in effect despite a bit of sideways respite.
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Without making a long story we are at 833 and are likely headed to 835.5 where it is likely to stall as I see it.
Those are the numbers I was looking for yesterday before it fell apart.
I will look at it tomorrow and see if it might run up to the 842 area or come back down....let's see what happens tonight.
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Looks like my 835.5 and 833 played a role today....nice to see it cooperate.
I did not get a trade off the bottom...just didn't get a good signal and frankly was hoping to see it a bit lower.
Anyway it will go back to 825.8 at least...whether it opens there or whatever I don't know but it will get printed.
Actually the way its played out I expect it to go lower (823 ?).
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Congratulations on your journal!
In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.
A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?
B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?
C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?
D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?
E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?
Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.
A) I'm not sure of any benefits to me to be honest other than helping me remember some of the spots I pick out other than that might be to show what a genius I am
B) Only a minor problem area that I can think of and that would be public mistakes, and the worst part of that would be if I was responsible for someone losing money.
I think most around here don't blindly follow "trading advice" but it is a concern.
C) Not reluctant to start this thread, my original intent was to have a discussion about the TF and also some thoughts about Ichimoku. Over a period of time it morphed into a journal of sorts and as everyone knows I kind of go all over the map in what I'm posting but I haven't got criticized or banned yet so all is well.
D) I am somewhat indifferent to posting my ramblings but if it somehow is a benefit to others I can feel warm and fuzzy inside.
E) I would recommend others have some sort of journal or at least to some degree participate in an existing one, I think it does help others to see what other traders look at, think about, act on and so forth.
The free exchange of ideas helps everyone including yourself.
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I guess the news is going to try and convince me I'm wrong on this one but I'm still going to try a short if I get a signal somewhere....unless it goes over 831.6...then I'll write this idea off.
Remember I said it was weak but it's still there....the weakness would explain why it's going so far out of the way but like I said over 831.6 forget it...though technically still valid it's just way to ugly at that point
I've got a short( not married to it) on EMD here but nothing on TF at the moment....who knows how this will play out...like I said at this point I'm writing off taking out the low though it could happen. I did have signals to go long earlier but had that short in mind so missed out on the run up....silly me
I out of the EMD (did make some on it) ....I guess the TF is trying for about 834.5ish and the ES is aiming for about 1413.50 so keep an eye on those areas
R2 is 1412.5 ES , R2 on pit chart is 1411.50, R1 is at 1407.50
R1 is 833.8 on TF
Just waiting for some kind of signal either way....coming into lunch and all that so......
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In a day like today, when stocks and bonds are rallying, indicating that the market is once again convinced Fed "bad cop" Fisher was full of it, and more easing is expected (as noted earlier), and with NFP set to fall on a market holiday, thus the number, if weak, can be spun as one ushering in more QE over the weekend, one can only sit back and have fun with Birinyi's ruler.
Which in turn brings us to the following conclusion: with the market in 2012 once again in a straight diagonal line, just like in early 2011, gaining 50 SPX point each month regardless of news, climatic conditions, liquidity and frankly anything else, it is quite obvious that the S&P market will hit 5000 by December 2019, a date which is also notable because as the second Birinyi ruler chart shows, that is when trading volume will officially hit zero.
Birinyi vs stocks...
There have been a few different topping-type patterns in the equity indices in recent days with the Russell 2000 showing a Diamond Top right now.
It “should” drop to confirm at 816 for a downside target of 784, but it may make the rarer upside break on confirmation at 848 for a target of 880.
Of course, this Diamond Top might do what the S&P’s Diamond Top did today and that is to trade into one of its sibling patterns or the Broadening Top that confirms at 1387 for its downside target of 1354.
This pattern, Flat-Bottomed or Orthodox, could put in the less common upside breakout, though, on confirmation of about 1425 for a target of about 1458 and this possibility should be considered.
That being said, these patterns along with a Symmetrical Triangle breaking out to the upside in the Dow, or maybe it’s a Triple Top, with targets of 12717 and 13575, respectively, along with a Diamond Top/H&S duo in the Nasdaq Composite reflect investor uncertainty around ISM Services, payrolls for March along with the upcoming earnings season and maybe some of this data produces the more likely downside move to come from toppy-type consolidation.
It is this sort of move down in the S&P, and the equity indices and some of the sector ETFs by extension, which is supported by the VIX with what appears to be a bottoming-type Symmetrical Triangle at the apex of that bullish Falling Wedge.
It is the Falling Wedge that carries the dramatic target of about 48 and one that suggests a correction of some sort could be coming but it is the Symmetrical Triangle that confirms at 17.27 of 25.21 and is the better to focus on now. Unless the VIX drops below 13.66 to invalidate that pattern and its sister Rounding Bottom, it seems very likely that the VIX may soon spike higher.
In turn, it is the VIX that is pointing to a topping pattern of some sort in the S&P.
I'm expecting the lie to continue tomorrow, I expect we will get some upside ....
I am of course not trading but will have my bucket of popcorn with me while I watch the game.
Sorry about not posting areas to watch, I knew it would be messy and didn't want to cause any trouble.
This is a shot of todays Ichimoku...as you know I expected at least the top of the cloud to get hit....
I'm no expert but I suspect it will bounce off this and make a larger move down in the next few days....I could be wrong but will play it as it comes.
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Maybe they just figured it if was totally unrealistic, again, then someone would insist on a real investigation. So they made up a new, more down to earth number.
I forgot about that but then I don't really pay a whole lot of attention to those guys....( not saying they are wrong)
Anyway I have to look over things but just looking quickly I'm eyeballing about 791
I'll spend some time and see if I change my mind and agree with them or not....( not saying that I'm right)
I can make an argument for this thing going back to 813 so that's a spot to watch ....
Before that we need to get to 805.1 and stay above it....that's the key spot in this deal as I see it.
I know it might seem like a stretch but it's there and being that we now have a higher high it's more possible now but like I say 805 is the key spot here so keep an eye on it
Forgot to mention that 798.8 is a spot to be watched on the downside....it might be that this needs to get dealt with before this thing can visit 805....we'll see
Here's the deal, Im looking to get a long in here somewhere up to 805 or beyond if it plays out but 805 anyway.
It's a shame that we are stuck here at the close at my 98.8 area but keep an eye on these spots tomorrow for some kind of play out of this.
If it breaks todays low I'm going to focus on the 94.5 area then 789.5 area but if it hits that it will probably overrun it by about 15 tick or so.....
To sum it up pay attention to 798.8, 805, and 789.5 on the downside.....794.5 is probably less significant
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Putting aside the small Bull Pennants in the equity indices that may produce small gains for a bit of sideways trading in the weeks ahead, something that started weeks ago in the Russell 2000 and last week in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has begun in the S&P and that is the official reversal of the Operation Twist LTRO rally.
Looking first, though, at the Russell 2000, this index is clearly trading beneath the primary trendline to mark the uptrend associated with that rally and the reason it made sense a few weeks ago to say that a dip below the 50 DMA was probably setting up a future dip, or violent spike, below the 200 DMA.
Now “future” is always a relative term for me with that potential cross unlikely for weeks and months and something that will be foreshadowed by a potential turning down of the 50 DMA with the chart of the Dow below illustrating nicely the breaching of the trendline to mark its own Op Twist LTRO Rally.
Now there is the chance that the Dow’s entire Rising Wedge pattern that carries a target of 10405 will be widened to take the Dow a bit higher than seems plausible, but unusual things happen in these unusual times of extraordinary liquidity, and thus such a possibility should not be ruled out.
Interestingly, it would probably equal little more than sideways trading, consolidation, that will probably set the stage for what is likely to be severe spiking action down to that Rising Wedge’s target at a minimum.
It is the Dow’s drop below the trendline to mark its intermediate-term uptrend that tells us to be on alert for a very bearish move out of the equity indices at some point this year with the finer signals likely to come in due time.
Supporting this sort of drop after the consolidation is now the S&P that is showing a weekly candle for today that is below the trendline marking its Op Twist LTRO Rally.
As can be seen, it was that cross last year that marked the beginning of the end of the QE2 rally last year even though that true end did not come for many months later as the S&P consolidated in vicious sideways trading and something that seems likely this year before the index’s Rising Wedge might try to fulfill its 1075 target.
Not surprisingly such a potential fulfillment is supported by the VIX that is showing a nascent reversal of its intermediate-term downtrend and something that will ultimately happen, most likely, as a result of its Falling Wedge.
More important right now, though, than the VIX’s Falling Wedge is the fact that it is back above the second trendline of what will be many Bull Fan Lines to mark an upcoming reversal of its intermediate-term downtrend. In fact, today’s gap up may provide the placement for the all-important third Bear Fan Line that will act as real confirmation of such a potential reversal but this will require, probably, a brief drop back down and maybe to 16 or so before the VIX might trade for weeks between about 16 and 22.
Putting such possible but somewhat likely nuances aside, the main take away from the weekly chart of the VIX is that it supports the idea that the Op Twist LTRO Rally is starting to reverse and something that may be cemented by some sort of correction later this year.
I guess there is quite a bit of index hate today...my spots got cut through like a knife through soft butter....
I missed most of the day but I have interest in 1355.75 on ES if they don't front run it ...for a long up to 1361.75
The TF is a guess on entry but upside target is 787 minimum but would like to see 789 really.
It obviously looks weak but would like to see some kind of pop somewhere so....
It ain't pretty but possible long at 782.7.....do you feel lucky ?
I don't expect to get a trade here because the way it usually plays out on days like this is. That is because of all the previous chop they won't come back for a decent entry and just take off instead.....it's really tough picking through all the weeds.
Edit: Obvoiusly nothing happened at 782.7...just a blip....if we get any kind of bounce somewhere we most likely won't see it coming.....just to negative to get a decent signal though I do see something on ES ...might as well just come back tomorrow
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I'm still looking for 789 then if it stays above it (and gets past 792.5) I think I'm ultimately looking for 798.
Refer to my earlier post on some of the down side stuff to keep an eye on.
The ES came up to the 1361.75 I was looking for only it started from a lower spot than I was looking at and just passed on the whole deal after just getting a point off the first try....anyway I'm looking for the TF to hit 787 tonight sometime.
In addition to the spots I already mentioned watch around 792.5....
Hopefully some of these will get a little more respect than the stuff for earlier today but it serves as a good example why you HAVE to get some kind of PA or signal to fire off a trade.
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We got 798 so this trade is over ....have to wait for the next setup ...I should mention that I'm now looking to go short probably at about 797 .
It's already set something up overnight so it might not come back but if it does that's where I'll be watching
Now that we busted through the top next up is around 804 (808 after that)......I did try for a long at 793 but missed it by 2 ticks on a retrace....would have been looking for 797 but you know the rest......
It seems pretty obvious they are gunning for every stop they can get.....I'm watching 808 and then just short of 812 which I don't think will get hit today but who knows....
I'm looking for a failure at the top.....I should have posted the trade back to 804...I got a nice piece of it...
Anyway I'm getting a feeling this thing might fall pretty quickly all the way back down but I have nothing I can point to that justifies it and it's probably not going to happen but felt like I might mention it anyway.
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The zombies just pretty much bought all day as you can plainly see...the only reason I got a piece of the drop back to 804 was there was a footprint I didn't mention but more importanly was the fact that they had to at least TRY for the 2:00 turn around.
I didn't buy at 804 because I didn't get a decent signal and frankly was hoping it might continue south...oh well
Earlier there was a nice pin off the vwap and R1 around 798 and some how missed that.....can't get them all
Finally got a fair (not great) signal to go short after the close here ...entry at 807.8 stop a few ticks over high
where it goes I don't know...maybe nowhere...not doing it but might tomorrow if it's still around here
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Having a hard time getting a good read on things today but now that we hit 798.3 there is a chance we turn back down to tag 789.1
We'll have to see if it actually turns here or keeps going....if it takes out the high I think I would write off the dowside idea for now....bbl
The only other thing is if we get over 800.1 and stay above it we might end up at around 812ish.....not really seeing it happen though, still favor the downside I think
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It’s easy to think of a market top or bottom as a single point in time, but it is typically a process that occurs over a period of time as is shown nicely, most likely, by the daily chart of the Russell 2000 below.
This process started back in early March when the Russell 2000 dove for its 50 DMA and something that seemed to signal a 200 DMA dash-to-come and an event that seems increasingly likely as the Russell 2000 hangs below its flattening 50 DMA with a Broadening Top standing by to take this small cap index well below its 200 DMA. However, there is the possibility that the Russell 2000 visits the top trendline of that pattern one more time before potentially making a proper downside break by dropping below 784 for a current target of 720 and well below its 200 DMA and this speaks to the idea that topping is a process and not a point.
One reason to think that process may accelerate in the days ahead, though, is shown by the Russell 2000’s recent consolidation into what appears to be a Bear Pennant that carries, interestingly, the same 720 target on confirmation of 784 and it remains valid unless the Russell 2000 climbs above $828. One reason to have faith in that Bear Pennant is shown by the Nasdaq Composite’s own Bear Pennant that is working ferociously to confirm.
The Nasdaq Composite’s Bear Pennant confirms on a closing basis at 2987 for a target of 2846 and it remains valid so long as the Nasdaq Composite is below 3086 with its own Broadening Top giving reason to think it will remain valid considering that the pattern confirms at 2885 for a target of 2636.
Not surprisingly, the chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing its own version of this topping process that could take the Dow down toward 12000 on its Broadening Top that confirms at 12711 with the Bear Pennant’s target of 12704 providing the bearish spark, perhaps, to the Dow’s Broadening Top.
Equally unsurprising is the fact that the S&P is showing less of that Broadening Top and much more of the H&S cousin that is peeking out of the Nasdaq Composite’s chart too with the S&P’s H&S confirming at 1357 for a target of 1292 and it is a pattern that should be taken seriously so long as the S&P remains below 1402.
And it is the 5%+ decline objective of the S&P’s time-taking topping process, then, that suggests treating the index, and risk, with care.
I'll post some spots to keep an eye on later....I did end up shorting at 813, I forgot to post it here but did post in in the chat ...sorry.
I hope some of you guys were watching that area and maybe got something...if not there will always be another trade.
As it stands at the close it's still pointing down so don't rush in to start buying...bbl
Prior to turning to any charts, let me state the challenge of these “crazy” markets and that is sideways trading reminiscent of last spring and summer for a little déjà vu. Complicating matters right now is the fact that the pattern responsible for this trading and the same one from last year – the bearish Broadening Top – may – sudden death – or may not – sideways – be ready to fulfill after little bit of sideways trading.
What this means for all of the equity indices is that the daily charts are bearish intermediate-term bearish for a 10%+ type drop, but it is less clear whether that drop might start in a few days on Bear Pennants or in many weeks as the Broadening Tops take the equity indices well above this year’s highs. Right now, at this moment, these charts look more vulnerable to a serious drop in the very near-term as opposed to the decline after the measured rise, but this is my opinion only and both possibilities must be taken into account.
Supporting my opinion is the chart of the S&P and its failure to drop to 1340 to make for a nice bottom Broadening Top trendline touch and something that provides pretty decent support for its more sibling pattern or the Head and Shoulders. Had the S&P touched 1340, its chart would probably support a move above this year’s highs toward 1440 but without 1340, there appears to be less of a bottom Broadening Top Trendline – now – and more of a Head and Shoulders neckline.
What makes the chart above even more complicated and challenging is the fact that the possible Bear Pennant of recent days may be morphing into a Double Bottom while the level that should have invalidated the Bear Pennant at 1402 does not invalidate the H&S with a higher right shoulder always preferred. Unless you love trading volatile swings, then, sideways may mean sidelines considering that the confirmed Double Bottom carries a target of about 3019 and a level that could be achieved right as the S&P swings back down or an objective that may not be hit as the S&P swings back down with its chart presenting bearishly on the aforementioned aspects along with the index’s recent reversal of its intermediate-term uptrend as shown in the chart on the following page. It just seems that the risk-to-reward ratio favors risk right now even if the S&P took out this year’s highs.
In part, this is due to the dominating pattern in the year-to-date chart of the S&P and the one that shifts the definition of sidelines, it is the Broadening Top/H&S that begins to confirm at 1357 and very safely at 1340 for a current target of 1292 and a level above the S&P’s 200 DMA.
Should that Broadening Top/H&S confirm to fulfill whether in a few days or after a number of weeks, it will set a very bearish Rising Wedge into motion toward its target of 1075.
Interestingly, though, and as can be seen above, the S&P’s bearish Rising Wedge has already started to confirm to fulfill and this may be a sign to think the true H&S wins over a peaked out Broadening Top and this would mean that the S&P will start to fall again within days toward that all-important 1340 level for starters with the Dow’s outside candle for April providing the bearish precedent.
It seems, then, that the odds favor, more than slightly, sideways coming to an end sooner rather than later.
my 2cents, the TF forecast was where the market usually makes a U turn @ "-88.6%", plus the candle bar was screaming "enough"! at this point the forecast calls for the price to fall back to the 0% level!
I was going to post that there is a short at 807.8 but it looks like a trap...so I won't tell you guys about it
I'm just watching....this stuff is to insane to trade.....tried something earlier that cost me 9 ticks and after seeing on how things are playing out am glad that's all I donated.
I just want this to break out of this area and go from there....
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Can make a weak argument for a long at 792.7 .....this one really is iffy but keep an eye on that spot anyway for something.
I've been somewhat remiss in that I haven't been paying a lot of attention lately because of how messy it's been and I'm waiting til it looks better to me and it looks like tomorrow should be ok so.....
