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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes


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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

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  #111 (permalink)
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I read some article online , somebody use 7, 22, 44 on ichimoku setting instead of 9,26,52. does it make sense?

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  #112 (permalink)
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supermht View Post
I read some article online , somebody use 7, 22, 44 on ichimoku setting instead of 9,26,52. does it make sense?

I use the standard settings, I don't really care to mess with that at all.
@Massive1 could probably tell you something about that though because he has a few years worth of experience with Ichimoku.

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  #113 (permalink)
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supermht View Post
I read some article online , somebody use 7, 22, 44 on ichimoku setting instead of 9,26,52. does it make sense?

I know a lot of traders that use different settings, but it doesn't really matter IMO. I've used 5.21.42 on the daily for 5 days in a week, 21 days in a month and 42 days in 2 months. That made sense to me at the time. I've been watching ichimoku with my regular strategy and have been using the 9.26.52. Those numbers work great.

One of the things I liked doing was drilling down to the 5min chart and using a higher lookback. i.e. 96.280.560
I'm just throwing ideas out there. It's best to experiment and see what works best for you IMO...but overall 9.26.52
are the go to numbers.

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  #114 (permalink)
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Today we got the TS over the KS but the chikuo is buried into price....I guess I would expect price to come down to the 708 area and maybe bounce out. If it stays in this area 10 more days the chikuo should be in the clear.
Alternatively for the bold guys out there you could put a buy stop in the 754.5 area as a breakout trade at this point...if it goes up your in but you are exposed to a pretty good drawdown if it backs up on you, I prefer to just wait and see if entry gets triggered and then wait for a pullback.

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  #115 (permalink)
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Earlier this morning, we, as in me, mused that it seemed as though a little “round down” was on the way with tech and small cap having looked toppy yesterday and a look that was carried straight into today. Joining in on that look was the XLF along with the S&P and Dow Jones Industrial Average and now it seems that we have a few confirmed Rounding Tops on our hands with a few others waiting to join in.

Rather than making this a charting bonanza, though, let’s keep the equity focus on tech and small cap where the topping action stands out rather well as can be seen in the Russell 2000 below.




Its Rounding Top is confirmed and carries a target of 709 and a level that would put the Russell 2000 back below its 50 DMA and something that could be taken as a sign of deeper declines ahead as seems likely due to its Bear Pennant marked in lightly. That pattern carries a target range of 672 to 698 for a 3-7% decline after today’s 3% drop.

For an even easier-to-spot Rounding Top, look no further than the Nasdaq Composite that closed below its 50 DMA even though its pattern is not officially confirmed.




It’s hard to see how the Nasdaq Composite, or the Russell 2000 for that matter, can save itself from falling to that Rounding Top by confirming it with a drop through 2582 and a target of 2500 and a level that will serve to more than close that gap.

Returning quickly to what could reverse these bearish patterns from producing at least 4% declines in equities and declines that could become closer to 10% on Bear Pennants resembling the one marked in the Russell 2000 is entirely clear to me, but one sign of it will be the obvious or a flat to up open that produces an up day tomorrow.

Such a possibility seems unlikely to me, though, considering that this round down phenomenon extends past equities and right into commodities.




As can be seen, the CRB Index is showing a Rounding Top of sorts – similar to the Head and Shoulders showing in gold and silver – with past such Rounding Tops having been pretty successful in the past.

In turn, it is my inclination to believe that the round down in risk has begun.

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  #116 (permalink)
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Just thought I might play this out in real time.....that footprint thing I mentioned in a couple posts is setting up now.
739.5 is the spot to measure from....will post when I see a turn.
I should also mention that today is a crappy day and this might take a while but will happen so....

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  #117 (permalink)
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To make a long story short this setup fizzled...just didn't lay out that good because of the crappy conditions.
There is a chance it will go down to 737.4 but it's a very weak trade at this point...garbage, I am walking away.

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  #118 (permalink)
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  #119 (permalink)
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Anyone else see a chance of going up to 742.5......me either really but there is a possiblity albeit small....you heard it here first.(I have some weird evidence for that but...)
Actually 731.5 is a spot to keep an eye on as well as 735.5 should we see that. just watch for PA...not worth posting a chart today, nothing excitng except for price coming down to the KS area on daily Ichimoku (719.5 on H12) but not really enthused about it.....this thing will probably yo-yo a little.

Edit: I thought I would point out the KS is currently at 731.2 and the KS is at 705
The top of the cloud is at 708

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  #120 (permalink)
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The S&P is looking rather interesting right about now with its daily chart showing a nice bull and bear tension as can be seen below.




On the bear side of the battle, the chart above shows the S&P close to the resistance set by its series of lower highs that have been covered, and shown, here many times before and a bearish force that is supported by the likely target-like pull of the bottom trendline at 1165 that represents the index’s messy but rising lows. Enter, however, the Pipe Bottom hanging with a bit of inside day glory and the potential to take the S&P to its upside target of 1291 and both sides of the rope are manned.

Let’s blow this shot out though and, in so doing, it seems the bears may have it as seems to present below.




Putting aside the minor fact that this chart looks like it is going to produce a big move down to a triple digit S&P, its very next move appears to be down to about 1165 as shown by the very clean markings of that Symmetrical while the Descending Trend Channel shown below is hard to ignore and it supports the idea of S&P 775.




Also supporting S&P 775 at some point in the next 3 to 12 months is the Head and Shoulders pattern shown in the weekly chart below.




It confirms at 1075 for a target of 775 and seems likely to break and fulfill in 3 to 12 months and it may provide one reason to think about S&P 775 in 2012.

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