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Fibonacci trading system for the ES


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Fibonacci trading system for the ES

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  #1 (permalink)
 Lmess 
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Hello traders,

I will be posting some information on a strategy/system I use for trading the ES. It relies on Fibonacci retracements and extensions. Retracement levels are used to determine entry, stop and target, while extension levels are used to determine when to draw a new fib and how to draw it.

I will be posting the rules for setups and how to draw fibs starting on June 1st. This style of trading usually provides anywhere from 1-3 trades per day. On days where price just extends itself without having much of a retracement, there will most likely be no trading opportunities. This strategy could probably be used to trade other markets as well. However, I will post the rules that are specific to the ES contract.

Once I start posting the rules and examples, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask and I will try to answer them as best I can.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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According to Lance Begg, Fibonacci lines are an illusion. It will be fun to watch your experiment to see if we can effectively trade a 'mirage' without nothing else but those lines.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Lmess 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
According to Lance Begg, Fibonacci lines are an illusion. It will be fun to watch your experiment to see if we can effectively trade a 'mirage' without nothing else but those lines.

Interesting article...I respect his point of view, although I don't know who he is. At first, I did not believe in fibs either. I was just drawing them anywhere I saw two pivots. It was only until I added several rules to how I drew them, that I started getting consistent good results.

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 supermht 
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looking forward to read your post, I am Fib fan, post, post....

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  #5 (permalink)
 kbit 
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I too am looking forward to seeing what your methodology is. My curiousity lays mianly in the sucess rate on the ES

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  #6 (permalink)
 sharky 
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im also looking foward to reading this thread as i knew a scientist friend of mine who was or is i should say one of the smartest fib guys i know,he play with fibb settings for 5 years and at the end of 5 years he told me he just wasted 5 years lol,but will be interested to see what you can do,dont get me wrong im not saying you cant do it im just saying my buddy didnt see any results that would put him ahead of the game using fibbs...sharky

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  #7 (permalink)
 cory 
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sharky View Post
im also looking foward to reading this thread as i knew a scientist friend of mine who was or is i should say one of the smartest fib guys i know,he play with fibb settings for 5 years and at the end of 5 years he told me he just wasted 5 years lol,but will be interested to see what you can do,dont get me wrong im not saying you cant do it im just saying my buddy didnt see any results that would put him ahead of the game using fibbs...sharky

just finished jeff greenblat dvds he said he was about to drop the fib then he heard about luca series, together they give him the high prob trade.

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 DavidHP 
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cory View Post
just finished jeff greenblat dvds he said he was about to drop the fib then he heard about luca series, together they give him the high prob trade.

More information?
Course name?
What is Luca Series?

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  #9 (permalink)
 cory 
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DavidHP View Post
More information?
Course name?
What is Luca Series?

Thanks,

Harnessing Explosive Market Turns:... - Greenblatt, Jeff

dvd was poorly done, highly disrecomm it.

like fib, Lucas is another bunch of numbers

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 ThatManFromTexas 
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Lmess View Post
Hello traders,

I will be posting some information on a strategy/system I use for trading the ES. It relies on Fibonacci retracements and extensions. Retracement levels are used to determine entry, stop and target, while extension levels are used to determine when to draw a new fib and how to draw it.

I will be posting the rules for setups and how to draw fibs starting on June 1st. This style of trading usually provides anywhere from 1-3 trades per day. On days where price just extends itself without having much of a retracement, there will most likely be no trading opportunities. This strategy could probably be used to trade other markets as well. However, I will post the rules that are specific to the ES contract.

Once I start posting the rules and examples, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask and I will try to answer them as best I can.

We have had numerous discussions debating the viability of many different indicators on this board. Some traders do not use any indicators and trade strictly off price action.

I believe every trader must decide for himself what works for him. The best way to make that decision is to look objectively at as much information as is available to him.

Therefore, even though I do not personally subscribe to FIB lines, I thank you for posting your information. Please do not let any of our comments discourage you from posting your rules.





trendisyourfriend View Post
According to Lance Begg, Fibonacci lines are an illusion. It will be fun to watch your experiment to see if we can effectively trade a 'mirage' without nothing else but those lines.

Soooo ... he's saying FIB lines are...uh...fibbing....

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

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 bluemele 
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I think fib's have merit for two reasons.

1. It gives any trader a reason to feel strongly about a trade, much like any "INDICATOR" (MP is also an indicator...)

2. A lot of traders put in orders at those locations because they believe in Fibs!

There is no magic, well, sort of in the sense that the collective conscious of the fibs seems to work a bit. I am amazed almost every day as I learn the fibs more and more every day.

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 RM99 
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bluemele View Post
I think fib's have merit for two reasons.

1. It gives any trader a reason to feel strongly about a trade, much like any "INDICATOR" (MP is also an indicator...)

2. A lot of traders put in orders at those locations because they believe in Fibs!

There is no magic, well, sort of in the sense that the collective conscious of the fibs seems to work a bit. I am amazed almost every day as I learn the fibs more and more every day.

Furthermore, as we all know, it's not necessarily the edge but the money management that makes/breaks a trader's account.

You can take just about any indy or method (MACD, RSI, Stoch, BB, Triangles, Channels, etc) and gain a statistical edge.....but it's the ability to maximize exit efficiency that really has the greatest effect.

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Trader Y
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RM99 has hit the nail on the head. Any indicator/method can work or fail. It's using the ones you like, with your particular setup, and having exit strategies on both sides of the trade. To say one particular thing doesn't work is probably what sets traders back as they then continue to look for that "one" indicator or holy grail. Poor in my opinion that a so called professional should say any tool doesn't work when he should be explaining confluence with multiple tools even FIB. Besides, why not let traders figure out what works for them, not telling us how something is an illusion or not.

Disclosure: I use Fibs everyday as a part of my trading.

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 estrader14 
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Fib lines work due to several different reasons..

1. Natural timing in nature.. (not sure about this)
2. The 'Crowd' uses Fib lines, so they are bound to cause a reaction in price
3. HFT Trading Programs use fibs/retracements to whipsaw people out. When you draw enough, places rules around what you see, and hook on to the price action when a program does.. They forcast price to the tick/pip. MUCH better than any historical Indy that is the 'grail'


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 ThatManFromTexas 
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It's a matter of perception....

Indicators .... like Religion... work ... if you believe they do...


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 bluemele 
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Trader Y View Post
RM99 has hit the nail on the head. Any indicator/method can work or fail. It's using the ones you like, with your particular setup, and having exit strategies on both sides of the trade. To say one particular thing doesn't work is probably what sets traders back as they then continue to look for that "one" indicator or holy grail. Poor in my opinion that a so called professional should say any tool doesn't work when he should be explaining confluence with multiple tools even FIB. Besides, why not let traders figure out what works for them, not telling us how something is an illusion or not.

Disclosure: I use Fibs everyday as a part of my trading.

Yup, using martingale, it is just a matter of how big is your account. haha.

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  #17 (permalink)
 Lmess 
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I'm finally ready to post about my system and try to teach it as best as I can. I've never really had strict rules on how to draw the fibs, so I had to analyze my way of drawing and create some rules for it. What I am going to try to teach is what I came up with. I have created some videos, hopefully you won't fall asleep while watching them as my voice can come out pretty monotonous. English is not my native language, so please forgive me for any mistakes in my English. Here is the original document with the rules which might change if I find I need to add anything to it (which I most likely will do in case something needs to be more specific).

I've recorded 7 videos based on what I had written as of June 1st 2011. I will most likely record some more videos as time passes by. If you have questions, feel free to ask. I'd recommend you watch the videos in the highest quality available so you can see everything more clearly on the charts. Here they are:














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 ThatManFromTexas 
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Lmess View Post
I'm finally ready to post about my system and try to teach it as best as I can. I've never really had strict rules on how to draw the fibs, so I had to analyze my way of drawing and create some rules for it. What I am going to try to teach is what I came up with. I have created some videos, hopefully you won't fall asleep while watching them as my voice can come out pretty monotonous. English is not my native language, so please forgive me for any mistakes in my English. Here is the original document with the rules which might change if I find I need to add anything to it (which I most likely will do in case something needs to be more specific).

I've recorded 7 videos based on what I had written as of June 1st 2011. I will most likely record some more videos as time passes by. If you have questions, feel free to ask. I'd recommend you watch the videos in the highest quality available so you can see everything more clearly on the charts. Here they are:

YouTube - ‪fib1‬‏

YouTube - ‪Fib2‬‏

YouTube - ‪Fib3‬‏

YouTube - ‪Fib4‬‏

YouTube - ‪Fib5‬‏

YouTube - ‪Fib6‬‏

YouTube - ‪Fib7‬‏

Your English is better than my Spanish... actually... your English is better than my English ... and English IS my first language...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #19 (permalink)
 Lmess 
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
Your English is better than my Spanish... actually... your English is better than my English ... and English IS my first language...

Thanks.

I recorded this video analyzing today's price action and showing how I start my day. It shows how to analyze pre-market price movement so you know how to start trading once the market opens.


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 gulabv 
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Lmess,

Awesome videos! Thanks for taking the time to share with us. You should consider joining the iPad2 contest by starting a new thread...

Was there a specific reason you chose to use 610 tick charts on ES?

Keep the videos coming!!

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 Big Mike 
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Please embed videos instead of linking them.

Check here:


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  #22 (permalink)
 Lmess 
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Big Mike View Post
Please embed videos instead of linking them.

Check here:


Mike

Thanks for the link. The videos have been embeded.

I forgot to post the trading rules in a written format, so here they are.

Attached Thumbnails
Fibonacci trading system for the ES-fibonacci-trading-rules.pdf  
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 Big Mike 
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 hector24 
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Lmess, do you have a interactive chat room during the day. Just want to make sure that I am learning your method correctly in real time. Also I trade CL, DAX, TF, and Euro. Is there any way that this could be caluculated out to conform to your ranges for fib levels regarding taking a trade or waiting for more movement. Sorry to bother you but I just want to learn your method. I know you trade the ES but I wanted to convert it to my other instruments. Also would the 610 tick be ok to trade on the other instruments that I mentioned.

Thanks
Hector

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  #25 (permalink)
 Lmess 
San Antonio, TX
 
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gulabv View Post
Lmess,

Awesome videos! Thanks for taking the time to share with us. You should consider joining the iPad2 contest by starting a new thread...

Was there a specific reason you chose to use 610 tick charts on ES?

Keep the videos coming!!

Thanks for your support.

The reason I use 610 Tick charts is that 610 is a fibonacci number and that it shows pivots that match my criteria specified in rule #1.

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  #26 (permalink)
 Lmess 
San Antonio, TX
 
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hector24 View Post
Lmess, do you have a interactive chat room during the day. Just want to make sure that I am learning your method correctly in real time. Also I trade CL, DAX, TF, and Euro. Is there any way that this could be caluculated out to conform to your ranges for fib levels regarding taking a trade or waiting for more movement. Sorry to bother you but I just want to learn your method. I know you trade the ES but I wanted to convert it to my other instruments. Also would the 610 tick be ok to trade on the other instruments that I mentioned.

Thanks
Hector

Hi Hector,

I do not have an interactive chat room.

I'm pretty sure this system could work with other contracts as well, not just the ES. The reason I use the ES is because my I like to keep my maximum risk per contract <= $100. In an instrument like the Euro, the swings are much larger than 16-28 ticks, so the risk would be greater. I will look into some of those contracts and try to find what a good distance would be, although I'm pretty sure the risk will be greater.

I'll let you know what I find.

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 hector24 
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Lmess, thanks for responding back to my questions. Will await for your exploration of the distance numbers to use and what rules maybe to impliment. Also your videos on how you use the fibs is very helpful.

Thanks
Hector

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  #28 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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I like your rules and the fact you use the 50% ratio. This is in line with market auction theory. The 50% is part of the market profile and many other studies like median lines, Pitchfork etc.

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  #29 (permalink)
 Lmess 
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This is the video for the analysis of 06/02/2011. I only took 1 trade when the market opened and in the video I talk about a rule I forgot to mention in the previous videos which is that I don't take trades where the stop is 3 ticks larger than the profit. The maximum I allow is 2 ticks.

@ hector24 - I think it's going to take me some more time to try to establish parameters for some of the markets you mention.


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 Lmess 
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I'm not so sure the market is going to provide any opportunities today as price has extended quite a bit from the NFP news release. We'll see what happens.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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How many opportunities do you get on average for a week ? And what's the potential profit and drawdown if using 1 and/or 2 contracts ?

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 Lmess 
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How many opportunities do you get on average for a week ? And what's the potential profit and drawdown if using 1 and/or 2 contracts ?

The opportunities vary with the price action. Like I said today when the market had just opened, I thought that the chances were pretty slim that I would get a chance to trade since the NFP number had been released earlier. When price moves too far in one direction without substantial retracements, then the chances of getting a trade diminish.

As for the potential profit and drawdown, that varies with the setups. The max potential profit would be 7-8 ticks ($87.50 - $100 per contract traded) as in my trade from yesterday, where I entered at the 50% level. The max risk is 8 ticks ($100 per contract traded). If it is more than that, then I don't take the trade.

So if you are trading 1 contract on a $5000 account, then your max risk per trade is 2%. The good thing about the ES is that it is not that volatile, so if price goes 8 ticks against you, you know you are most likely wrong and should be out.

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 Lmess 
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I have added the rules I forgot to include that were mentioned in the video for 06/02. The updates are indicated by a number 1 and they are basically that if the stop is 3 ticks larger than the profit target, then no trade is to be taken. The other addition is that if price is in a tight range 4-5 points and has broken the 76.4% line consecutively on 2 occasions, I recommend to wait until price finishes consolidating and shows some direction, then you can draw the fibs again.

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 Lmess 
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Today I created an application to help determine what 75% of the distance between the 50% and the 76.4% level is. You just need to input the price and it will calculate it for you rounded to the nearest tick. That way you don't have to use the calculator, you can just use this instead.

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 hector24 
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Lmess, if I use Ninja where do I install this file at. I know you use another trading package but I did not know if you are familiar with Ninja or not. By the way thanks for sharing your method with us.

Thanks
Hector

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 Lmess 
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hector24 View Post
Lmess, if I use Ninja where do I install this file at. I know you use another trading package but I did not know if you are familiar with Ninja or not. By the way thanks for sharing your method with us.

Thanks
Hector

Hi Hector,

It's an independent application. You can use it regardless of which charting package you use, just extract and double click on the file.

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 Lmess 
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I will be posting a video possibly to show the trade taken today and how the fibs were drawn this morning.

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 ejtrader 
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LMess - Thanks for sharing this along with precise rules. Appreciate it.

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 Lmess 
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@ ejtrader Your welcome.

@ hector24 I haven't had time to establish parameters for the contracts you asked about. As soon as I have an idea, I will post it here.

This is the video for the fibs drawn today, June 6th. One trade was taken which resulted in a 6 tick profit, I made a mistake in the video and said 7, it was actually 6. If you have any questions feel free to ask or post your series of Fibs to see if we are both drawing the same fibs.


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 Lmess 
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Here are the fibs drawn for this morning. You can compare to your fibs and see if we are both drawing them at the same pivots and in the same direction.


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 Lmess 
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I did not take any trades today as the swings were too wide. I will post my video later or tomorrow morning. I was asked if I could post a chartbook for Sierra. I will post it here, it has charts for other contracts as I am still trying to determine the best methodology to trade those markets based on fibs.

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 Lmess 
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I was also asked if I could share the code for the fib. calculator; I will share it here. I compiled it using Visual Studio 2008. If you make any changes to it please share it.

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 Lmess 
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Here are the fibs that were drawn for June 9th.

Price was very indecisive in pre-market hours. It broke the 76.4% line 4 consecutive times before the market opened. So I did not take the initial trade, which would have been a winner for 3 ticks. Then price broke the 76.4% line again, so I still did not take a trade on that setup. It would have resulted in a loss of 5 ticks. Then price started showing direction, but there were no big retracements, so i did not take any trades. Waiting for price to show direction instead of trading the first 2 setups spared me from a 2 tick net loss.

Here is the video:


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 Lmess 
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Took several trades this morning.

Pre-market price action was looking similar to yesterday. I skipped the first trade for this reason. Once the market showed direction and I drew a new fib in the same direction, I did not get filled on my sell limit order although price traded at that level. Then I got filled on 3 occasions and closed the trades for +5, +4, and +5. Turned out to be a good day after all.


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 Lmess 
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Today I just want to share some of my experience with trading and some thoughts on money management.

When I first started trading, I wanted to find a system/strategy that would get me a substantial amount of money in a short time. I started out trading with larger quantities than what I felt comfortable with. My original idea was to make my account at a very fast rate, I can't even remember the number. In my first week I made my account grow 20%, and in my second week, I managed to lose 75% of what I had won in one trade. I went on a losing streak after that and my account took a significant hit.

I eventually got to educating myself about money management and the importance of a trading plan and decided to get to work on a plan. I then started using my current strategy, which as you can see is not too greedy. There are days when trades do not setup. So taking small profits with proper money management has made my account grow in a consistent and steady way, which I believe should be the goal of traders. Trading is not just about how much you win, it's about how much you win and keep in your account or end up withdrawing, but not giving it back to the market.

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 Lmess 
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Here is a link to an article that talks about the money management strategy I used. It is the fixed ratio money management style.

Fixed Fractional and Fixed Ratio Money Management Styles - For Dummies

Later in the week, I will be posting more details about the plan I use, as is it not exactly as it is described in this article, but it should give you an idea. I will also try to show how my present strategy works well together with the money management plan.

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 Lmess 
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Here are the trades I took for June 13th. There were 2 trades, one for +3 ticks and the other one for +5 ticks. I did not take a trade at the open as the stop would have to be more than 2 points and did not take the second trade since the stop needed was 3 ticks larger than the profit target, although it would have worked out. Here is the video:


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 FR5050 
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Can you explain how you arrived at the rule of cutting of trading at 12 noon eastern time?

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 Lmess 
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FR5050 View Post
Can you explain how you arrived at the rule of cutting of trading at 12 noon eastern time?

Honestly, it's just a matter of my personal preference. I don't like trading in the afternoon. I feel more comfortable trading in the morning. That's the only reason why I cut my trading at 12 noon. If you feel comfortable trading past noon, then you can adapt my strategy to your preferences. I've never used it in the afternoon, so I wouldn't know how effective it is. I'd recommend you look at some charts and draw the fibs to see how well it works.

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 Lmess 
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The ES made a big move overnight. It seems price is now consolidating. During pre-market hours, price broke through the 76.4% line on 4 occasions. So I am going to wait for the market to show direction and draw at least 2 fibs in the same direction before taking a trade.

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 Lmess 
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This is a video I shot using the fib strategy on other markets without any rules as to what the minimum and maximum spread should be between pivots. The final results were:

6E-------3 Trades------20 ticks------$250 per contract
TF-------4 trades------54 ticks-------$540 per contract
NQ------3 trades-------(-11) ticks---(-$55) per contract
YM------2 trades------20 ticks------$100 per contract

Total-----12 trades--------------------$835 per contract

This using one target at 23.6% level, so there was no scaling out involved.

Here is the video:


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 hector24 
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Lmess,
That's great that you tried it on other markets. Although I know there was no scaling involved you still had pretty good results. One market I did not see in the bunch was Oil. Just curious, is it to volatile.

Thanks
Hector

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 svuhmed 
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thanks for a very methodical and detailed presentation of a system

if 2 lines were added to the fib tool at 43.4 and -11.8 it might save having to calculate on the fly the 75% from 23.6 to 50 and the half way between 0 and -23.6, respectively.

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 Lmess 
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hector24 View Post
Lmess,
That's great that you tried it on other markets. Although I know there was no scaling involved you still had pretty good results. One market I did not see in the bunch was Oil. Just curious, is it to volatile.

Thanks
Hector

I've never considered trading CL as it is too volatile for me. I will see how this system works with it and will let you know. You can also draw fibs on it and share your findings with us.

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 Lmess 
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svuhmed View Post
thanks for a very methodical and detailed presentation of a system

if 2 lines were added to the fib tool at 43.4 and -11.8 it might save having to calculate on the fly the 75% from 23.6 to 50 and the half way between 0 and -23.6, respectively.

Your welcome.

I sometimes just add a level at 45% to measure the 75% distance between 23.6 and 50, although I'm aware that the proper level is 43.4%. However, that line is not always necessary as are the rest, it is used when price doesnt quite make it to 50% but gets close; that's why I dont use it in my "regular" fib tool. If you want to use it, then it would save you from having to open the fib tool program I attached before. As for the half distance between 0 and -23.6, that's something I measure visually most of the time. In the ES it's easy because the distance between the 2 is usually no more than 2 points, per my rules. But for other markets, including those 2 levels might make it easier to measure the moves.

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 Lmess 
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I took one trade today in which I was stopped out for a loss of 6 ticks. Then I stopped trading as I don't like to trade that much on OP EX week.


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 Lmess 
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Like I said in my video, I did not take any trades yesterday and will probably not be taking any today. Price seems to have over-extended in pre-market hours. It just came back down to a 50% retracement off a 13 point wide fib. I would not have been looking to trade that retracement as it was too wide. Price made a swing 28.75 points wide during pre-market hours. That leads me to believe that it will probably be making wide swings throught this morning. I'll still be watching the PA though.

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 aquarian1 
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It looks like you have a well thought-out system and also well documented!
Thank-you for sharing it.

All the best!

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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 Lmess 
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Thank you @aquarian1.

Here is how I traded today's moves in the ES. I took 3 trades. One was right at the open for +4 ticks, then took a loss of 5 ticks and one last trade for +4 ticks. So net profit for the day was +3 ticks minus commission for each contract traded.


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 Lmess 
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For today I only took one trade for a 5 tick profit. Price then traded in one direction for the rest of the morning without any significant retracements. At the end of the video I discuss how I use the first low or high of the day regardless of if price made a lower low or higher high during the previous day's price action. Had I used the low made 2 bars before the first bar for today, I would not have gotten any trades. I explain this in more detail in the video.


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 Lmess 
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I did not take any trades yesterday. I skipped the first trade of the day as the market changed trend consecutively several times before the market opened. So I waited for direction, but once it was established, the first swing between pivots was too wide, so I did not trade it, and after that it moved up without any major retracements. I will post some screenshots once I am done trading for the day.

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 Lmess 
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I took a lot of trades today, 6 to be exact. I ended up with a PnL of +5 ticks, which after paying commissions was not much, somewhere around a 3 tick net profit. It was a good day for my broker though.

Here is the video:


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 GridKing 
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I am a big fan of using fibs and have found this very useful to aid in daily analysis , video's are posted daily before the market opens Learn Futures Trading Strategies, Live Emini Trading Room & Trading Videos - Emini Addict they are free

Friday's video is not posted yet but should be up shortly

Thanks for this thread

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 Lmess 
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Hi guys,

I just took a short at 1274.75 and covered at 1273.50 for a 5 tick profit. I don't want to overtrade as I did yesterday, and since it is Friday this might be the only trade I take this morning.

Here's a screenshot.

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 Lmess 
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GridKing View Post
I am a big fan of using fibs and have found this very useful to aid in daily analysis , video's are posted daily before the market opens Learn Futures Trading Strategies, Live Emini Trading Room & Trading Videos - Emini Addict they are free

Friday's video is not posted yet but should be up shortly

Thanks for this thread

Seems like a nice website and very inexpensive too. Do you know if he calls out live trades? Because if he does, then this is one of the cheapest live trading rooms I've seen.

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 GridKing 
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Lmess View Post
Seems like a nice website and very inexpensive too. Do you know if he calls out live trades? Because if he does, then this is one of the cheapest live trading rooms I've seen.

It's actually pretty cool, his screen becomes your screen and he charts right there in front of you, it's not like a trading room in any sense I have seen, there's a free seven days, check it out --- but the daily videos are free

He's really good because he's been using the same method for a long time and has his rules no matter what anyone questions it's interesting to watch He uses think or swim plattform - the with $TICK , $BANK , ES
and EUR (no indictors or gizmos) and looks at other stuff too - it reall changed the way I use and look at trading and fibs

add: sometimes you get a bit lost because I don't know how he keeps track of where he pulls the fibs to and from but if you check his work he's on the money

add: and actually it's probably better to follow his daily videos for a while first to get used to his method and then watch the live stuff otherwise it may be overwhelming JMO

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 Lmess 
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GridKing View Post
It's actually pretty cool, his screen becomes your screen and he charts right there in front of you, it's not like a trading room in any sense I have seen, there's a free seven days, check it out --- but the daily videos are free

That's usually what trading rooms do. They show their charts and either show their DOM or call out trades with entries and exit levels, if they call themselves a live trading room. At least that's how the live trading rooms I've been at do it. That's why I asked if he calls out his trades live.

Perhaps you should post about it in the vendors and product reviews section of the forum so we don't drift away from the topic of the thread.

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 GridKing 
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Sorry didn't mean to interrupt the thread , you asked that's why I continued, i just noticed a similar method in yours and mentioned, I don't really care if anyone uses it

I'm new here so there's no reason to trust me hopefully that will change with time, Thanks for this thread , looking forward to more

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 Lmess 
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GridKing View Post
Sorry didn't mean to interrupt the thread , you asked that's why I continued, i just noticed a similar method in yours and mentioned, I don't really care if anyone uses it

I'm new here so there's no reason to trust me hopefully that will change with time, Thanks for this thread , looking forward to more

Don't worry about it, and I apologize if my last post sounded harsh. That was by no means my intention.

I noticed from your journal that you also use fibs in your trading, so feel free to post about it. I'm always open to suggestions and learning about what other traders use.

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 Lmess 
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Here's the video for today's price action. I only took the first trade and 2 more setup that I did not trade.


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 Lmess 
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There were no trades taken today in the ES. In the early morning, price moved in one direction without any major retracements and that led me to draw an extended price fib. Even with the extended price fib, the distance between the 50% and 76.4% level was 2.25 points, so I did not take the trade, although it bounced at the 50% line to the tick and then went above the 23.6% line.

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 bluemele 
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This is my favorite 'how to' trade in that it is simple and common sense.

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 Lmess 
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I took 3 trades today, the first was a loss of 6 ticks and then two 4 tick winners for a gross profit of 2 ticks. In this video I talk a bit about how going from extended to regular fibs can affect trading decisions and outcome.

What happened today was that I went from extended to regular and that eventually led to my first trade which was a loss. Had I stuck to EPF and just moved the 0% line a couple of ticks, I would not have taken that first losing trade. You can find out what I mean in the video:


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  #74 (permalink)
 Lmess 
San Antonio, TX
 
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I did not have time to record a video today. However, I took two trades, and some internet problems saved me from a 3rd trade which would have resulted in a loss. The first one was right at the 50% level exactly when the market opened and exited with a 5 tick profit. My second trade closed with a 3 tick profit. As price was setting up for a third trade, I started having some connection problems, so I just canceled the sell limit order I had and rebooted, I then downloaded and updated the trading platform, and by the time I was done, the entry level had already traded and I did not take the trade which would have resulted in a 6 tick loss.

If you want, you can try to see what my three setups were and post them, to see if we are drawing the same fibs. Otherwise, I might post some screenshots tomorrow.

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 Lmess 
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Two trades were taken this morning in the ES. Similar to yesterday, the first trade was a 3 tick winner and the second trade was a 5 tick winner. Price then went mostly in one direction and close to noon ET, a trade setup based off an EPF, but I did not take the trade as the stop loss would have been 3 ticks larger than the profit target.

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 Big Mike 
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 Lmess 
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I am not sure I will be taking any trades today as price has been ranging and we are coming into the holiday.


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 Lmess 
San Antonio, TX
 
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I will be cutting back in my trading. During this last month, I took almost every setup that met my criteria. I usually don't trade that much. Those 5-6 trades I took just one day was a new record for me. I usually take anywhere from 1-3. Maybe I should have specified this in the beginning, but I just wanted to teach the setup for the most part. As for the money management and trading plan, that is up to each individual trader and what you feel comfortable with.

Today I only took one setup for which I have attached a screenshot below. I ended up taking my profit one tick shy of my original target. The reason was that I was watching the order flow at that time, and as you can see, price bounced 5 times off the thick purple line. Every time price came down to this area, the bids were being refreshed and price seemed to be having some trouble trading through that level and into my target price. So after the 5th bounce, I moved my target one tick up to 1331.50, and got filled eventually, price traded through my original target two candles after my buy limit order was filled, but I'm not going to beat myself up over a tick.

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 bluemele 
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Lmess View Post
I will be cutting back in my trading. During this last month, I took almost every setup that met my criteria. I usually don't trade that much. Those 5-6 trades I took just one day was a new record for me. I usually take anywhere from 1-3. Maybe I should have specified this in the beginning, but I just wanted to teach the setup for the most part. As for the money management and trading plan, that is up to each individual trader and what you feel comfortable with.

Today I only took one setup for which I have attached a screenshot below. I ended up taking my profit one tick shy of my original target. The reason was that I was watching the order flow at that time, and as you can see, price bounced 5 times off the thick purple line. Every time price came down to this area, the bids were being refreshed and price seemed to be having some trouble trading through that level and into my target price. So after the 5th bounce, I moved my target one tick up to 1331.50, and got filled eventually, price traded through my original target two candles after my buy limit order was filled, but I'm not going to beat myself up over a tick.

Now that the contest is OVER, maybe moving to a JOURNAL would be nice so we can keep up with you daily and keep showing us. Also if you take Fat Tails Session Volume and Session Movement indicators you will see that most of the movements have been after 10am EST! That could help.

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 Lmess 
San Antonio, TX
 
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Now that the contest is OVER, maybe moving to a JOURNAL would be nice so we can keep up with you daily and keep showing us. Also if you take Fat Tails Session Volume and Session Movement indicators you will see that most of the movements have been after 10am EST! That could help.

I was actually thinking of starting a journal yesterday. Maybe I'll start one and just leave this thread for basic stuff, questions about how my strategy works, or any changes I make to the strategy.

As for trading, yesterday, the overnight session was out of the ordinary, no trades were taken as none set up. Today, it was similar. Price moved a lot during overnight session and has been ranging during the morning.

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 greenroomhoo 
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check out eminiaddict dot com. he trades this method and it seems to work very well for him and others in theroom. there is a short trial period. I am not affiliated in any way and dont trade using his trading rules....just pointing it out since it is like your style.


Lmess View Post
I was actually thinking of starting a journal yesterday. Maybe I'll start one and just leave this thread for basic stuff, questions about how my strategy works, or any changes I make to the strategy.

As for trading, yesterday, the overnight session was out of the ordinary, no trades were taken as none set up. Today, it was similar. Price moved a lot during overnight session and has been ranging during the morning.


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dansota
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Harnessing Explosive Market Turns:... - Greenblatt, Jeff

dvd was poorly done, highly disrecomm it.

like fib, Lucas is another bunch of numbers

Wow $1500 I guess trading has its price. Anyone tried this dvd?

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shezts
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.. but you have to think about what Fibonacci's observations really mean to use the values effectively Most people do not.

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