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The 10 o'clock reversal - is this a thing?
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The 10 o'clock reversal - is this a thing?

Unread   #1 (permalink)
Amsterdam
 
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The 10 o'clock reversal - is this a thing?

At the moment I am reseaching a pattern I'd like to call the 10 o'clock reversal.

Before I start testing it with an algorithm and so on, I would like to know if other people have seen or tried this before (and failed, or, hopefully, not).

It's very simple. It goes like this: looking at 1H bars, at 10 o'clock in the morning, 1 hour after the European open, the direction of the future reverses. I have seen it happen a dozen times the last month in the Euro Stoxx 50 Future. At this very moment, in fact (I got a sim trade on it now).

I would like to know, is this very simple pattern a thing? Surely people must have seen it (or am I deluding myself?). I've seen it happen at 9:30 as well, but still. Should I hold the trade for multiple days? Should I look at volume? What stoploss? These are all questions for later. For now I just wanna know is the 10 o'clock reversal a thing?

RTR

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Unread   #2 (permalink)
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Unread   #3 (permalink)
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Quick and roughly drawn example, for the Euro Stoxx 50 Future. Black lines are potential wins (with a timed exit end of cash session, say 17:00), the red line is a loss. This is just the last week, I know...

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Unread   #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Reettrader View Post
At the moment I am reseaching a pattern I'd like to call the 10 o'clock reversal.

Before I start testing it with an algorithm and so on, I would like to know if other people have seen or tried this before (and failed, or, hopefully, not).

It's very simple. It goes like this: looking at 1H bars, at 10 o'clock in the morning, 1 hour after the European open, the direction of the future reverses. I have seen it happen a dozen times the last month in the Euro Stoxx 50 Future. At this very moment, in fact (I got a sim trade on it now).

I would like to know, is this very simple pattern a thing? Surely people must have seen it (or am I deluding myself?). I've seen it happen at 9:30 as well, but still. Should I hold the trade for multiple days? Should I look at volume? What stoploss? These are all questions for later. For now I just wanna know is the 10 o'clock reversal a thing?

RTR

Yes I have, or at least something similar.

It will continue to work until it doesn't! Way back in the day I used to correlate the FTSE and ES. I would track the Open, High, Low, Close and Midpoint of the FTSE and would track the price of the ES at the same points in time. I found that if the US futures market didn't decline at the close of the FTSE, that could indicate higher prices in the US futures later in the day.

Referring back to my first statement...whilst I did find some very interesting results, I concluded that based on enough trading days it was a coin toss.

However, I have read that there are times in the US futures market people have determined a reversal is likely. Can you set your watch by it? Not sure it is that simple, so I stopped tracking the data. Maybe somebody else has more information than I do.

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Last edited by JonnyBoy; November 26th, 2019 at 06:41 PM.
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Unread   #5 (permalink)
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Thank you JonnyBoy.
I was afraid that it would be to random to trade. It needs extra information. I am hoping to get statistics on what days of the week and hours this Will work. Will take some time though.


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Unread   #6 (permalink)
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markets eat breakfast (530am to 930am pst) lunch (930-1030 pst) dinner (1030-1230 pst) and dessert 1230-close)

I eat a big breakfast and am done for the day.

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Unread   #7 (permalink)
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Lot of ppl trade time oriented reversal or high volume strategies. I wont comment on US market as I'm not that active in it yet but in my local one we pay close attention to EU market opening times, usually that's when the volume comes in form of FII and that's when we see good possible trend continuation or reversal/pullbacks if any.

Simple time tables like the one provided in link are used here quite often which list different market timings, note that you may have different time period that effect your market. My time table is set for my own trading markets. First 30 min no trade from opening as I wait for IB to form, then hour or so taking good trade then dead market till EU session opens, if opportunity presents I take trade again then dead market till last hour of market. Time is very important if you want to form good successful strategy in any market and every successful trader uses it in some form or another, especially if you are intraday player and want to score in 20-30 min max.

https://www.worldtimezone.com/markets24.php

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Unread   #8 (permalink)
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10 am ET & 3:45 pm ET


Reettrader View Post
At the moment I am reseaching a pattern I'd like to call the 10 o'clock reversal.
RTR

You are on the right track if trading ES or MES... keep it up but...
1. not because it's reversal... it could be continuing trend
2. not only 10 am ET (Big Boys with algoBUY/SELL starts/resumes but also @3:45 pm ET MOC.MarketOnClose where Big Boys with their algoHedging positions.

Note:
Evidence was 11/22/2019 last Friday's MOC with massive Volume for algoBUY even at the EOW.EndOfWeek.

Why?
IMHO (the shortest answer), it's seasonal Bullish bias for Thanksgiving holiday week!
What's Big Boys target? T3186?


Find the missing piece of the puzzle... Let's be amazing, be awesome in trading today!
iTS
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Unread   #9 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Reettrader View Post
At the moment I am reseaching a pattern I'd like to call the 10 o'clock reversal.

Before I start testing it with an algorithm and so on, I would like to know if other people have seen or tried this before (and failed, or, hopefully, not).

It's very simple. It goes like this: looking at 1H bars, at 10 o'clock in the morning, 1 hour after the European open, the direction of the future reverses. I have seen it happen a dozen times the last month in the Euro Stoxx 50 Future. At this very moment, in fact (I got a sim trade on it now).

I would like to know, is this very simple pattern a thing? Surely people must have seen it (or am I deluding myself?). I've seen it happen at 9:30 as well, but still. Should I hold the trade for multiple days? Should I look at volume? What stoploss? These are all questions for later. For now I just wanna know is the 10 o'clock reversal a thing?

RTR

for US markets this happens a lot, especially when there is a good amount of volatility, this is normally due to some sort of gap up or down ON and the US markets want to get back to a "fair" price. Lately this has been happening less and less on the ES. This is one of my favorite trades but lately it has not been producing.

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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Unread   #10 (permalink)
boston
 
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As @MiniP and others have indicated - indeed there are repeatable time based “patterns” in the marke. It just so happens that I also used to trade the GAP phenomena and was involved in massive quantitative research regarding this phenomenon.

Even though gaps have a Higher probability of closing (~55%-65%) - other factors need to be taken into consideration such as : the gap size ( most important one ) - why ? Take ES as an example - what if the GAP is only ONE (1) point (4ticks ) - you may be able to squeeze only two ticks out of it - and even that is questionable taking into consideration commissions etc.

Interestingly enough - we did find that certain times of day are better to “play the gap”.

One of the major questions / edge killer - is how much “HEAT” are you willing to take / absorb - as the “edge “ goes against you. We used 13 years of data on correlated markets - and in the end decided that this could be used as a “decision support” tool - and NOT an automated system.

Cheers - and “MIND THE GAP” (had to say that ...haha - got to love that written phrase at the London’s Subway - brought a smile to my face when I was visiting &#128526
S.

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