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Swing Trading the ES - simplicity and understanding price levels

  #1 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 122
Thanks Received: 316

Hi there,

Long time member of Big Mike's webpage (sorry I just can't call it futures.io).
As I have progressed in my trading over the years I have traded many instruments, including FX, bunds and futures (Dax, Dow Jones and ES). I now trade the ES on an intraday and longer term basis, along with FX, oil and gold on a longer term basis. This thread is mainly concerned with the ES as that is where I trade intraday.

I have followed many concepts and tried various different things, have been on numerous trading courses, was scammed by a well known scammer on forexfactory so like to think I have seen (and heard) a fair amount of bullsh*t. I almost traded through a well known futures prop shop and trading provider just before they went belly up and all the pooled trader funds mysteriously went up in smoke (a lucky escape). The only thing I haven't done is blow my account.

So in short, I've been around.

The purpose of this post is to try to pass on a few basic tips that will hopefully result in some lightbulb moments for people who are struggling. I want to write in a way that is free of trader babble as in my experience a lot of courses are full of waffle which means basic concepts are hard to grasp. It's also good for me to set down my thoughts in a (hopefully) coherent manner

So here I go.

My main lightbulb moment over the last few years has been simple. Always have this in your head.

On most trading days, there is no fundamental market changing news which can drive price to trade at much higher or lower prices.
In the absence of this market changing news, price will simply move around between major technical levels and react to them


Simple (I hope).

But what does this mean in practise and how do you use this for trading?
Well, using a normal trading day with no big market changing news, if price moves to an area that I have identified as a major area of S/R then I am looking for price to reverse at this point.

I expect price to reverse because in order for price to break through a major S/R level and move a lot higher or lower, there has to be an extra reason, not just a technical one, which can justify price moving to a new price level.
Or, in other words:

In the absence of this market changing news, price will simply move around between major technical levels and react to them.


Think about this logically. If you're sitting at major S/R at the bottom of a swing, what possible reason does price have to break this level and move lower? If there is no bad news/info that the market was unaware of until that point in the day (e.g. a Trump tweet about the trade war continuing/getting worse, poor economic price data which are both bad news), why would the ES move lower? Trader expectations are unchanged, so how can price move any lower? There is no reason for it to move lower! And if it can't move lower then it will do two things-i) stabilise at that lower level or ii) move higher.

Think of something you really like. Ipods. Peanuts. Tuna fish. Coffee.
Imagine an old fashioned market where there is an auctioneer calling out the prices really quickly. Imagine the price of your favourite product (mine is definitely peanuts) moving up really fast and the auctioneer is shouting out lots of prices and lots of people are calling out in order to buy more peanuts. Price keeps going up but then all of a sudden people start thinking "well damn I love peanuts but this is getting expensive, there's no reason for me to keep buying up here at these prices so I don't want to buy anymore here."

All of a sudden there is less shouting out from the peanut buyers and the price increases slow down. There are less buyers, or they have stopped buying altogether. In short, peanuts have become too expensive.

Other people who love peanuts recognise that price has gone too high, people got too excited and that the real or fair value where most people will buy peanuts is a lot lower. So they shout out and start to sell peanuts and price moves lower because in all the excitement the price has gone just too high, the buyers have realised their mistake and aren't there anymore.

At this point, imagine two scenarios:
1) There is no news/market info that has been released that can fundamentally change the price of peanuts. Conditions are exactly the same as when people were originally buying.
2) The largest peanut producer in the world has released an update. They have made an mistake with their inventory and have realised that they now have 50% more peanuts in storage than they thought. These peanuts need to be sold.


Under Scenario 1, this is what will happen:

A) Price moves lower to where most people originally bought the peanuts. The majority of people think it was a fair price, and the evidence is shown by the fact that so many people were happy to buy there. So it's logical that they will start buying again, combined with the fact that it is likely that less people will be willing to sell/short in the expectation of making money from a lower price. Think about if you were a seller at a price that just 1 hour ago people were happily buying at. How confident would you be of making a profit? Do you think this would be a good place to open a short? You'd probably not be too confident. And you'd be right.

Or

B) Price moves even lower than where most people originally bought the peanuts. This is because that there were also a lot of people who not only bought at the fair price, but quite a lot also bought at an even higher price. They're now a bit spooked as the price has dropped lower than their buy price and as we're all human, they're panicking a bit and are selling their positions to CLOSE them. The people selling to close their positions might actually outnumber the people who are now buying at what was a pretty fair price that most people were happy with. Hell, some people might even be actively selling to open a position (to make money on the price going lower) as they can see the buyers getting swamped even at these levels.
As a result, the price of peanuts now goes even lower than where the majority of people were happy to buy them.
So say that most people bought peanuts at $100 per kilo. It went all the way up to $101 per kilo. Price has now moved lower to $99 per kilo.
And at this $99 level, you know that for whatever reason, this is a major S/R level.

At this point, now is the time to ask yourself the question. The be all and end all.

In the absence of any market changing news, what chance is there that price can continue lower?
The answer should be-not much chance to all.

In fact, in the absence of any market changing news, there is a very good chance that the entire same scenario that I have listed above will happen in reverse. Or it might be a bit late in the day now and most people have gone home so price will just hang around and not move much.
And so on and so on.

It is important to understand that most days are exactly like the one listed above. Market changing news does not happen every day. Or two days. Or three days.
So when price reaches a major technical level, and there is no news that can explain why it can move any higher lower then guess what. It won't move higher or lower!

At this point, now think about Scenario 2:
The largest peanut producer in the world has released an update. They have made an mistake with their inventory and have realised that they now have 50% more peanuts in storage than they thought. These peanuts need to be sold.

Work out in your head what this means for the price of peanuts.
Does it fundamentally change what people will be willing to pay for the price of peanuts?
And importantly:
Do you think that the major technical level at $99 will hold?

It is at these moments, and at these levels, where both myself and many others make their mistakes.
We do not recognise that we are no longer trading in the conditions described in Scenario 1. This is because most days are Scenario 1 and we are either unaware of the inventory news or we do not understand the severity of the impact.

The $99 per kilo price major technical level is based on old information. In other words, at that price in the recent past, us peanut lovers were happily going about our business without knowing that that the largest peanut producer in the world was about to flood the market with peanuts.
This news is now big enough to fundamentally change how much we are willing to pay for peanuts, and it is going to be a hell of a lot lower than $99.

So why would anyone buy at $99?

Well, when price reaches $99 it might look like it's going to reverse as some people will probably still try to buy peanuts because they have made the mistake of thinking that we are still operating under Scenario 1. Or they don't really understand the implications of the news and mistakenly think that $99 per kilo is a good price to buy peanuts and make a profit as price will now rise like before.

But it won't do any good. There are now huge amounts of peanuts being unleashed onto the market, so the price has absolutely no reason to be $99, it should be a lot lower. You should be happy to sell and make a profit.

So to summarise what I have said so far:

1) Most days, in the absence of market changing news, price will move around between major technical levels and will react/reverse when reaching them.
2) In the absence of market changing news there is a good chance of reversal at these major technical levels.
3) It is important to have a good understanding of what the fundamental conditions are in your chosen market and what type of news, and level of severity, will cause markets to no longer respect previous major technical levels.


So for the SandP at the moment, they market is expecting a trade deal with China. The market is also expecting that interest rates might move lower which is also good news. If there is a credible change in either of these scenarios then price will move quickly and violently lower. Depending on the severity of the news, attempting to go long at major technical levels near the current price will be a mistake.
Price will always react somewhere so there are plenty of chances to go long, but the news is just too big. These areas are traps and price continues to move lower.


What are the consequences of not understanding these core concepts?
Traders lose confidence and chop and change their trading systems as they don't understand why their levels don't work anymore. Which is a shame as price will stabilise at some point, and then we're back at Scenario 1).

I hope that makes sense. Maybe it doesn't!
If there is any interest I'll post what I do to work out major technical levels. Adios

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  #3 (permalink)
 
numberjuani's Avatar
 numberjuani 
Agoura Hills, CA USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation&Multicharts
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Trading: Futures & Equities
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Keab View Post
Hi there,

Long time member of Big Mike's webpage (sorry I just can't call it futures.io).
As I have progressed in my trading over the years I have traded many instruments, including FX, bunds and futures (Dax, Dow Jones and ES). I now trade the ES on an intraday and longer term basis, along with FX, oil and gold on a longer term basis. This thread is mainly concerned with the ES as that is where I trade intraday.

I have followed many concepts and tried various different things, have been on numerous trading courses, was scammed by a well known scammer on forexfactory so like to think I have seen (and heard) a fair amount of bullsh*t. I almost traded through a well known futures prop shop and trading provider just before they went belly up and all the pooled trader funds mysteriously went up in smoke (a lucky escape). The only thing I haven't done is blow my account.

So in short, I've been around.

The purpose of this post is to try to pass on a few basic tips that will hopefully result in some lightbulb moments for people who are struggling. I want to write in a way that is free of trader babble as in my experience a lot of courses are full of waffle which means basic concepts are hard to grasp. It's also good for me to set down my thoughts in a (hopefully) coherent manner

So here I go.

My main lightbulb moment over the last few years has been simple. Always have this in your head.

On most trading days, there is no fundamental market changing news which can drive price to trade at much higher or lower prices.
In the absence of this market changing news, price will simply move around between major technical levels and react to them


Simple (I hope).

But what does this mean in practise and how do you use this for trading?
Well, using a normal trading day with no big market changing news, if price moves to an area that I have identified as a major area of S/R then I am looking for price to reverse at this point.

I expect price to reverse because in order for price to break through a major S/R level and move a lot higher or lower, there has to be an extra reason, not just a technical one, which can justify price moving to a new price level.
Or, in other words:

In the absence of this market changing news, price will simply move around between major technical levels and react to them.


Think about this logically. If you're sitting at major S/R at the bottom of a swing, what possible reason does price have to break this level and move lower? If there is no bad news/info that the market was unaware of until that point in the day (e.g. a Trump tweet about the trade war continuing/getting worse, poor economic price data which are both bad news), why would the ES move lower? Trader expectations are unchanged, so how can price move any lower? There is no reason for it to move lower! And if it can't move lower then it will do two things-i) stabilise at that lower level or ii) move higher.

Think of something you really like. Ipods. Peanuts. Tuna fish. Coffee.
Imagine an old fashioned market where there is an auctioneer calling out the prices really quickly. Imagine the price of your favourite product (mine is definitely peanuts) moving up really fast and the auctioneer is shouting out lots of prices and lots of people are calling out in order to buy more peanuts. Price keeps going up but then all of a sudden people start thinking "well damn I love peanuts but this is getting expensive, there's no reason for me to keep buying up here at these prices so I don't want to buy anymore here."

All of a sudden there is less shouting out from the peanut buyers and the price increases slow down. There are less buyers, or they have stopped buying altogether. In short, peanuts have become too expensive.

Other people who love peanuts recognise that price has gone too high, people got too excited and that the real or fair value where most people will buy peanuts is a lot lower. So they shout out and start to sell peanuts and price moves lower because in all the excitement the price has gone just too high, the buyers have realised their mistake and aren't there anymore.

At this point, imagine two scenarios:
1) There is no news/market info that has been released that can fundamentally change the price of peanuts. Conditions are exactly the same as when people were originally buying.
2) The largest peanut producer in the world has released an update. They have made an mistake with their inventory and have realised that they now have 50% more peanuts in storage than they thought. These peanuts need to be sold.


Under Scenario 1, this is what will happen:

A) Price moves lower to where most people originally bought the peanuts. The majority of people think it was a fair price, and the evidence is shown by the fact that so many people were happy to buy there. So it's logical that they will start buying again, combined with the fact that it is likely that less people will be willing to sell/short in the expectation of making money from a lower price. Think about if you were a seller at a price that just 1 hour ago people were happily buying at. How confident would you be of making a profit? Do you think this would be a good place to open a short? You'd probably not be too confident. And you'd be right.

Or

B) Price moves even lower than where most people originally bought the peanuts. This is because that there were also a lot of people who not only bought at the fair price, but quite a lot also bought at an even higher price. They're now a bit spooked as the price has dropped lower than their buy price and as we're all human, they're panicking a bit and are selling their positions to CLOSE them. The people selling to close their positions might actually outnumber the people who are now buying at what was a pretty fair price that most people were happy with. Hell, some people might even be actively selling to open a position (to make money on the price going lower) as they can see the buyers getting swamped even at these levels.
As a result, the price of peanuts now goes even lower than where the majority of people were happy to buy them.
So say that most people bought peanuts at $100 per kilo. It went all the way up to $101 per kilo. Price has now moved lower to $99 per kilo.
And at this $99 level, you know that for whatever reason, this is a major S/R level.

At this point, now is the time to ask yourself the question. The be all and end all.

In the absence of any market changing news, what chance is there that price can continue lower?
The answer should be-not much chance to all.

In fact, in the absence of any market changing news, there is a very good chance that the entire same scenario that I have listed above will happen in reverse. Or it might be a bit late in the day now and most people have gone home so price will just hang around and not move much.
And so on and so on.

It is important to understand that most days are exactly like the one listed above. Market changing news does not happen every day. Or two days. Or three days.
So when price reaches a major technical level, and there is no news that can explain why it can move any higher lower then guess what. It won't move higher or lower!

At this point, now think about Scenario 2:
The largest peanut producer in the world has released an update. They have made an mistake with their inventory and have realised that they now have 50% more peanuts in storage than they thought. These peanuts need to be sold.

Work out in your head what this means for the price of peanuts.
Does it fundamentally change what people will be willing to pay for the price of peanuts?
And importantly:
Do you think that the major technical level at $99 will hold?

It is at these moments, and at these levels, where both myself and many others make their mistakes.
We do not recognise that we are no longer trading in the conditions described in Scenario 1. This is because most days are Scenario 1 and we are either unaware of the inventory news or we do not understand the severity of the impact.

The $99 per kilo price major technical level is based on old information. In other words, at that price in the recent past, us peanut lovers were happily going about our business without knowing that that the largest peanut producer in the world was about to flood the market with peanuts.
This news is now big enough to fundamentally change how much we are willing to pay for peanuts, and it is going to be a hell of a lot lower than $99.

So why would anyone buy at $99?

Well, when price reaches $99 it might look like it's going to reverse as some people will probably still try to buy peanuts because they have made the mistake of thinking that we are still operating under Scenario 1. Or they don't really understand the implications of the news and mistakenly think that $99 per kilo is a good price to buy peanuts and make a profit as price will now rise like before.

But it won't do any good. There are now huge amounts of peanuts being unleashed onto the market, so the price has absolutely no reason to be $99, it should be a lot lower. You should be happy to sell and make a profit.

So to summarise what I have said so far:

1) Most days, in the absence of market changing news, price will move around between major technical levels and will react/reverse when reaching them.
2) In the absence of market changing news there is a good chance of reversal at these major technical levels.
3) It is important to have a good understanding of what the fundamental conditions are in your chosen market and what type of news, and level of severity, will cause markets to no longer respect previous major technical levels.


So for the SandP at the moment, they market is expecting a trade deal with China. The market is also expecting that interest rates might move lower which is also good news. If there is a credible change in either of these scenarios then price will move quickly and violently lower. Depending on the severity of the news, attempting to go long at major technical levels near the current price will be a mistake.
Price will always react somewhere so there are plenty of chances to go long, but the news is just too big. These areas are traps and price continues to move lower.


What are the consequences of not understanding these core concepts?
Traders lose confidence and chop and change their trading systems as they don't understand why their levels don't work anymore. Which is a shame as price will stabilise at some point, and then we're back at Scenario 1).

I hope that makes sense. Maybe it doesn't!
If there is any interest I'll post what I do to work out major technical levels. Adios

Wow that sure is a long complicated post for simplicity lol! When I think of simplicity I think of something like this daily bars:

If C is lower than the open and Volume is lower than yesterday, then buy next bar at the open.
Hold for one day.

TS Code
If C < O And V < V[1] then
Buy Next Bar market;

If Barssinceentry = 1 Then Sell Next Bar market;

BTW thats 20% annual ROR with 1 tick slippage for entry and exit and $2.5 commission per side

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  #4 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 122
Thanks Received: 316

Simple concepts still need explanation if you're trying to describe how, when and why a market will move.

Hence why the important bits are highlighted.

So to summarise what I have said so far:

1) Most days, in the absence of market changing news, price will move around between major technical levels and will react/reverse when reaching them.
2) In the absence of market changing news there is a good chance of reversal at these major technical levels.
3) It is important to have a good understanding of what the fundamental conditions are in your chosen market and what type of news, and level of severity, will cause markets to no longer respect previous major technical levels.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 122
Thanks Received: 316

A great example in ES today (both UK and US session) of price moving between set levels in the absence of any fundamental news to drive price to new levels.
The first chart shows a 24 hour chart where the open 30 mins is surrounded by a rectangle, and the arrow is the close.
Second chart shows the ES on just the US session. You can see that price has dropped just below a key level and formed a reversal bar where I entered long.
Again, this is a technical level allied to fundamental analysis.
I asked myself, why would price move any lower? Has there been any fundamental news which means that price will move much lower?
The answer is no.
The technical levels are a breach of a previous day's low (2 days ago)whilst it has also dropped into the opening candle from yesterday.
Opening ranges are hugely important as the largest volume of the day is posted within the first 30 mins, and those buyers yesterday will be looking to defend their positions.




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  #6 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 122
Thanks Received: 316

On a similar note, if you were lucky enough to be trading at 1.45am UK time then you would have had a truly stunning trade using the same method.
As you can see, price has breached the previous day's high posted when the US was open and has then performed a reversal candle (15 min chart).
So if you were awake then you would look at how high price has risen based on no new fundamental info to justify this high price. So you go short.


Then you can zoom in and see that the delta is showing that buyers are trapped so it's extra confirmation. Price should then rotate lower to a fair value as it has gone too far based on no real reason to be trading at such high levels.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 122
Thanks Received: 316

The ES yesterday gave a great example of the first rule:
1) Most days, in the absence of market changing news, price will move around between major technical levels and will react/reverse when reaching them.

Then fundamental news came out r.e. the China trade deal that stated the US and China were close to signing.

As such, rule 3) came into play:
3) It is important to have a good understanding of what the fundamental conditions are in your chosen market and what type of news, and level of severity, will cause markets to no longer respect previous major technical levels.

This news, which was new to the market, meant that price had to move higher to reflect this news that was previously unknown to the market.

If you had not been following the news and were unaware of this release then you would have still been trading based on the idea that price would react to set technical levels.
Not only would you have been trying to go short (perhaps a few times) your losses would have been made worse to take because the easy trade would be to understand the new info, go with the flow and go long instead.

Looking at the chart below, the area circled would have been prime shorting territory which is understandable.
Once the price breaks the technical reversal boundaries then this is when you have to sit and make a judgement call:
Is the news that is supposedly responsible for driving this move enough to justify the move higher, or is it a stop hunt/liquidity sweep?
Or will it just reverse as stops are being triggered but there are no actual aggressive buyers wanting to buy at these higher levels which will then drive the price higher?

On the first chart (30 mins) the 30 min reaction bar looks like it doesn't give you much chance to get involved.

But on the second chart (5 min) you can see that the candle that broke higher gives you a decision to make. Is the move based on real info? Is this small pullback a chance for me to go long or should I actually be going short?
Decision time! No one said trading was easy

To give an alternative scenario, if price had performed this move without any news coming out then I would have been shorting this move. Although whether price would have made it that far, let alone broke the channel that it was in without any fresh news to justify higher prices is another matter.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 122
Thanks Received: 316

Great example just happened:
Trump has said no tariff movement until impeachment is over and/or election.
Fundamental news that means price has to go lower.
If you were quick and had a sqwawk you would have made great money going short and with a solid reason why.

And just as importantly, as a swing trader, do I take a long at this support level?
Answer (for me at least)-no. This is a new development and price needs to be lower to reflect it.
Is the current price level this new lower level? I'm not sure but I don't think it is. But more importantly, I can't see a reason to go long here. Why would anyone think price should move higher from here?
Could be wrong tho.


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  #9 (permalink)
 bxman 
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Posts: 162 since Nov 2019
Thanks Given: 23
Thanks Received: 24

Not only is trump saying higher tariff if no soft trade deal, you have a bill being passed to support HK in US (China not happy) and an impeachment trial to agitate trump / possibly even skew the election path. Noise just seems to be getting louder and I suspect trump will go on a rant at some point that will be neg for markets. Agree no reason to buy risk locally, wait for some constructive news to join the wave.

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  #10 (permalink)
 bxman 
Kent / UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Posts: 162 since Nov 2019
Thanks Given: 23
Thanks Received: 24


Can anyone explain to me why China cares to sign any deal prior to US elections? To me seems like China should drag the talks on for a while then back out of everything in q2 2020, trump wouldn't have much to stand on in his election trails. Just don't buy any of this talk about a realistic deal, would only be something that saves face for trump and just doesn't seem like China benefits in that scenario.

Enjoy

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