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ES News Releases
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ES News Releases

  #1 (permalink)
San Diego, CA USA
 
 
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ES News Releases

Hey everyone, I've been trading the ES and MES and I am wondering what new releases are the ones that I should watch out for the most? I'm using the econoday website for my news, but I want to know if there are any specific new releases that I should be aware that specifically pertain to the indices futures.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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wldman's Avatar
 
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Hey man...


Yes, of course. Non Farm Payroll, CPI/PPI, any central banker talking, POTUS tweeting. Anyone of those can rip them both clean off...or take them your way equally as fast.

I do not have a specific news feed coming in any more because I am trying to de-emphasize that type of exposure. BUT, Ransquawk was fast, reliable and inexpensive.

-Dan

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  #4 (permalink)
San Diego, CA USA
 
 
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Thanks Dan

Okay for sure. I will definitely look into them. I was on the SIM this morning and I noticed that the news release of NAHB Housing Market Index caused some serious movement in the markets. Thanks for the heads up

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  #5 (permalink)
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noriegaricky View Post
Hey everyone, I've been trading the ES and MES and I am wondering what new releases are the ones that I should watch out for the most? I'm using the econoday website for my news, but I want to know if there are any specific new releases that I should be aware that specifically pertain to the indices futures.

The most important one is FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) announcements or minutes. Take a look tomorrow, Wed. 9/18 at 2:00 PM. It is wise not to be trading around that time.... unless you are a thrill-seeker. Or nuts.

Sometimes ES doesn't go crazy then, but often it does. You can check the schedule and go look at what the markets did in the recent past at those times. They are infrequent (about 8 times a year, plus the release of minutes three weeks later).

See schedule here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Sometimes, if people are particularly tense about what they will say, during the day the market may be very quiet leading up to it, then things may get interesting quickly.

If there are no surprises in their announcement, nothing much may happen, but it's difficult to know ahead of time. Watch it tomorrow and see. Generally it's a good idea to be sitting on hands until any big movements sparked by it can stabilize.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote

Last edited by bobwest; September 17th, 2019 at 02:20 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Hi
Planned news events are very hard to trade. I would not try that route since itís where the pros play. News trading has been effective for me with unplanned/surprises news. Like a trump tweet,etc.
K


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  #7 (permalink)
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This is not a comprehensive list by any means, but is a good start. Spend a small bit of time learning these indicators and releases and watch how the market behaves. Finviz doesn't provide an exhaustive list, but in trading "close is close enough" most times.

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  #8 (permalink)
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The best way to think about/trade news is to only trade it when the market is not expecting the information.
So a NFP number that is surprisingly good/bad will mean that price has to move to a new area that reflects this new info.
Never trade news that is roughly in line with expectations.

Imagine if Trump tweeted that the trade war with China is over. That is new info that the market has not priced in to it's current levels. What will price do? Where will it move?
That's the same as a surprise number on NFP, or an unexpected comment from the FOMC.

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  #9 (permalink)
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I'm making an excel spreadsheet for this purpose actually. I have every major US planned econ news event since 2007 and I'm going through the charts of the 10 year bond to see what the reactions were. A reaction is classified as neutral, moderate, or severe. The directional result can be up, down, or whipsaw. I think it will prove to be a useful analysis tool given how big of an impact the recent PMI and payrolls numbers had on the market. I think I'll make a pivot table out of it so I can quickly see the stats on a particular event type.

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  #10 (permalink)
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one thing should also not be forgotten. as an example:

- a surprisingly high/good nfp number (well above forecast) could have a very positive impact on the stock market
- but also a surprisingly high/good nfp number (well above forecast) could result in a severe move down in the market

so it's not just the number itself. it depends on other things as well. like the state of the economy. if the economy is weak, the market might like strong nfp numbers. but if the economy is strong, the market might prefer weak nfp numbers because fear of inflation.

also not to forget, the revised numbers from the previous month could have a big impact as well.

of course there're other factors as well. like what does the market expect (not the analysts), how is the market positioned, what are other numbers showing (like unemployment rate, hourly earnings) coming out the same time etc...


Last edited by Silvester17; October 5th, 2019 at 01:54 AM.
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