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Although this seems like a very simple question, I note the many totally different answers given so far. If the thread continues, I expect there will be more, also totally different.
It's really not a simple question. Also, if you could do this apparently simple thing, you would be very, very successful. This suggests that it is not necessarily easy.
I think this is not such a simple question because your answer depends on a larger view of trading and of the markets. So essentially there are as many answers as there are trading methods, and there are a bazillion of those, not all of which will work for you (oddly enough, what doesn't work for one trader may work very well for another, but that's another question.)
I'm not trying to be discouraging, just pointing out that "how to spot a trend when x" is really the question all the time.
It is trivial to see a trend with your eye on a chart.
Being so it is just as easy to take the wrong side and jump in just as the trend is about to reverse or fade.
Spotting a trend is not really what you care about. You care about either an existing trend continuing or a new one just starting.
That I do not know and if I did I surely would not post how to do it.
For your consideration, I did one more test on the " enter at close, exit at open" strategy I posted on Friday, but only going long and not using any indicator. I switched to a 15 minute chart so that I could enter at 1615. I have uploaded here a 10-year test.
Bottom line: average win > $.11 (yeah, that 11 cents)
I just did NQ, ES and YM (again). I had used 1615 as my entry, not 1600 (duh). It did change the results significantly, thought probably not enough to trade it as-is.
Thanks. I find this study very interesting although it is not new stuff. I was wondering do you have similar results to this test (see picture) for the same period?
