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Do you rely on "instincts" while trading?
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Do you rely on "instincts" while trading?

  #1 (permalink)
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Do you rely on "instincts" while trading?

For entering and closing positions. Do you have a criteria for both entering and exiting or do you go by experience and trade in a discretionary fashion with some automation?

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  #3 (permalink)
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Zachary Standley View Post
For entering and closing positions. Do you have a criteria for both entering and exiting or do you go by experience and trade in a discretionary fashion with some automation?

I use both, sometimes you just have to go with the gut and sometimes it screws you. It's just a game of probabilities

roll of the dice

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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Doesn't work for me at all.

I really have to automate everything to have a chance to be profitable.

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MiniP View Post
I use both, sometimes you just have to go with the gut and sometimes it screws you. It's just a game of probabilities

roll of the dice

-P

Right, but what makes traders successful is his/her own edge, putting the possibilities in their favor. I'm wondering if there are any discretionary traders that think they have their own intuitive edge of picking entries or exiting before a reversal.

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Zachary Standley View Post
Right, but what makes traders successful is his/her own edge, putting the possibilities in their favor. I'm wondering if there are any discretionary traders that think they have their own intuitive edge of picking entries or exiting before a reversal.

being discretionary is in part using your gut, yeah your edge tells you what you should do but what everyone doesn't understand is that market rarely does the same thing over and over again. Sometimes it will be close to x but it won't be exact. Also a lot of it is chart time I'm sure someone who has spent 20 years in front of a chart has a lot more gut feeling then I do with 5 years.

I think what I wish someone would of told me years ago is, stop looking for the exact same setup. Find setups that match 75% of your "edge/perfect setup" and take it and learn from it. Some people will think this is a horrible idea but I think it would lead people to not have so much FOMO as they would be trading a little more and they wouldn't get upset when the engulfing candle they wanted to use as a signal was 1 tick short of actually engulfing the previous candle/range

my 0.02 tho

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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Zachary Standley View Post
Right, but what makes traders successful is his/her own edge, putting the possibilities in their favor. I'm wondering if there are any discretionary traders that think they have their own intuitive edge of picking entries or exiting before a reversal.

You will likely get a myriad of answers for this one. I created my own bespoke indicator that gives me entry signals as well as projecting targets. The targets are generated by a mathematical formula based on various market dynamics. More importantly though it projects my stop.

So in simplistic terms, I believe I have a razor thin edge for good entries. Targets however are never guaranteed to be hit, hence why I project 3 levels. The primary projected level is to scalp out with "something". If price works near to the intermediate projected level, that just means that I probably have a risk free trade working - which is more important to me than profits.

The final projected target being hit is just some icing.

As everything I do is based on mathematics it means there is a higher probability at the intermediate and / or final projected level that a retracement will take place. However, I don't consider this an edge, but it is why my orders are MIT. The number of times the market has touched these levels (with waiting LMT orders) and not filled me prior to a retracement wore thin pretty quickly. So MIT all the way in that respect.


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Sometimes a trade comes out of the screen and slaps you in the face. That's what happened to me yesterday. Price was very bearish, then regressed bullishly- it failed soon after the reversal. Volatility was still high, price was moving in this nice, consistent manner. People started to sell off and that's when I realized there's a good possibility that price is going to revert all the way back down to lower lows, and that's when I jumped in and rode it for a profit. It seemed obvious at the time that this was a high probability trade if there ever was one- it could just be an after-the-fact conclusion, a self fulfilling prophecy ordeal- I don't know, but it felt right, and I was so sure of the trade.

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  #9 (permalink)
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I only enter with at known stop and limit. Everyone has their own style.

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In my opinion, better traders are the ones that work against their gut. We get to reward ourselves (mentally) for gut instincts, yet, we fail to see how many times it is misleading.

Matt Z
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PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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