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Do you rely on "instincts" while trading?
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Do you rely on "instincts" while trading?

 
Elite Member
Wodonga Australia
 
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Linds's Avatar
 
Posts: 367 since Jul 2010
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The 'gut' is too closely related to the lizard brain and other unreliable psychologies to trust. It is a nice romantic idea that our 'gut' or intuition can be our guide but if you really measure the objective performance of your gut trades (or impact of gut decisions) over time I think the romance will die pretty quickly.

I get depressed by how easily people are satisfied, with so little argument.

C Hitchens
 
 
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Batavia NY
 
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I listen to my "gut" for discretionary trades as an indicator that I probably want to flip the sign and short what my "gut" thinks to do.

I mostly want to play the minority game and listening to the gut is almost always going to put you in the majority.

You can see this at work in a very simplified version if you think about the original El Farol Bar problem. "Hey it Thursday night on a beautiful summer night after a long winter, lets go to the bar!". Of course the bar is incredibly over crowded because everyone has the same gut instinct at the same time.


Last edited by centaurer; February 9th, 2019 at 07:40 AM.

 



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