Lost & losing hope

January 18th, 2019, 01:32 PM

DavidBodhi

I concur with several other commenters. If you are looking at a volume-based chart, you are not looking a 'price action'. You are looking at 'volume action'. It is not reasonable to assume that patterns of volume behave the same way as patterns of price. Price action is about movement of price over time. There might be patterns in 'volume action' that are tradable, but I've never heard of anyone analyzing that.

Personally, I find non-time-based charts to mislead. A renko chart showing a 10 point rally over 3 seconds looks identical to a 10 point rally that took 3 hours, but I'd expect radically different reactions to those two moves. But you'd never know it from looking at a renko chart.

A fairly casual look at your screen shots suggests to me that fear is making you delay entry so long you're going in the right direction at the wrong time. However, that's based on me looking at price/time charts for 5 years, for about the same amount of time each day that you have been for the last year. If it's really because your signals are telling you to enter then, then they're not good signals, despite your verbal description of your approach, which sounds perfectly fine.

Someone suggested going 3 months profitable in sim and without seeing new problems before venturing into live trading again. I agree with that. Sure, lots of people say Sim is a waste, because of the radically different emotional reaction to using real money, but if you're going to use price action, you really need to be looking at price/time charts, which means you'll be taking steps back and need confirmation that your trade signals actually work with price action charts. You might also consider adding a good DOM ladder to fine-tune your analysis of the action.

Ok, done with my $0.02.

I appreciate the .02. The volume charts can certainly be misleading at times- they speed up and slow down drastically everyday. As for VP, I use it mainly to determine S/R and entry. I think me trying to incorporate so many different strategies into mine has held me back. I do currently trade off a dom, though it may not be a good one.

January 18th, 2019, 01:36 PM

TheBenefactor

We can all jump in and give advice.

Part of the reason is that you most likely are undercapitalized. You may also not have a great income to supplement
your current income.

Most people know where I came from.

My unit had almost a billion dollars behind us. Our traders made great money so they did not have to trade every 5 minutes.

If a day did not look good we went home and did nothing.

The poor guy/gal with a $5,000 account wants to match wits against the big boys.

That is sad.

I can give perhaps one piece of advice:

Find a great trader. He or she had better have made millions of dollars trading. Don't pick someone who

comes up with intelligent sounding stuff but does not have a pot to &^^% in.

See if you can spend two weeks with this person.

Perhaps see if you can take a job with a small hedge fund.

I would recommend one or two excellent trader coaches online but there has to be a thousand idiots out there so don't go online to find a guru. Your odds of success are about 4 in a thousand.

TB
I would teach you but then I would become a guru who gets laughed at every day. Don't need the hassle. LOL

I've definitely been thinking about trying to find a mentor but I haven't had much luck so far.

January 18th, 2019, 01:47 PM

xevanchan

I've definitely been thinking about trying to find a mentor but I haven't had much luck so far.

As far as mentors, I am all for Al Brooks. I subscribe to his trading room and am 100% happy. I use the archived videos that he provides to practice some more. You seem to trade Al B's style, so you might benefit from it. Suggest watching his demo trading room video, also can subscribe free for a 2-day trial. FIO has quite a few seminars by him, that you could watch. I specially recommend the latest "Opening Range..." or similar name. I am incorporating the concepts from that seminar into my day trading.

Edit: You can get one-month of back archived videos of his trading room I think for $50. You could probably spend a week or two going over them (and going over them again and again and again). He crams 30 years of price action experience into his talk, so one pass over them is NOT enough.

I have no association with Al Brooks except for being his student. For me, he is the real deal.

January 18th, 2019, 02:05 PM

Almost any method may be used to trade but it is vitally important to find something that makes sense to you and practice it. A 61% win is good, but it must also make money. Hopefully the winners are bigger than losers.

Keep practicing until suddenly you say, �Why am I not trading this?� It should be immediate, obvious, and undeniable.

I believe you must practice, sim, back/forward test, whatever� by hand, using the exact tools you trade with, everything. In addition, you may also use any automatic analysis to add information, to improve your understanding. Become the expert in who you are, what you do and don�t stop there, always try to learn something new. The market can be your best teacher.

Now the important part. I find most wanting traders spend a disproportionate amount of time trying to find trades. There are more good trades than it is possible to trade. Seldom will you hear when or how to get out.

Predictions are unpredictable. They simply offer an opportunity to trade. Learn when your predictions go wrong! Learn how to stop trading, how/when to get out. Learn it better than when to trade. Know when your predictions are wrong. Was that mentioned twice?

Not trading prevents loss, trading offers gain. Both are essential.

You see something you believe will work, work until you prove it. Hope this helps.

January 18th, 2019, 02:22 PM

Here is my 2 cents of advice...I have been there, done what you did and felt like how you feel many many times. I still do, although not quite as often. You are not alone in the journey.

1. If you are consistently losing, you are consistently buying high and selling low or trading within rotations (volatility) on any given day. Try to find out what is low, high on a relative basis and what the volatility for a given session.

2. You need to adapt to the market. I see you mention limit order and stop order entries. There is no one type that works every day. You have to adjust according to the day. Observe what the market is doing in a session and then pick one.

3. Make your observations about #1 and #2, then start just with 1 trade per day with a bracket order. One good trade per day. Wait until you think the trade is one of the best for the day. Doesn't matter whether you win or lose. Do this consistently and it should boost your confidence.

Good Luck.

January 18th, 2019, 02:25 PM

xevanchan

...but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now.

Is that one year on ES or one year in total?

In my opinion and own experience - 1 year of studies is nothing in this business, so you should perhaps manage your expectations.

I also have the belief that the most worthwhile stuff on trading will not be found in books or shared freely on forums beyond hints or clues as to which direction to look or what to look at.

If it's actually only one year you've been doing this, I'd stop trading completely (probably a good idea anyway) and start building a methodology from scratch. Start with a clean slate. Expect to spend a few years on this.

What you have in front of you is moving prices. They go up. They go down. How much up? How much down? How often? Start measuring the market and understand how it moves. Concentrate on the swings of the market and their sizes. Look at the daily ranges.

Collect statistics and metrics of the market you trade. Know it inside out. Then, you'll trade the market with confidence and certainty because you know how it normally moves and you also know how it moves when it does not move normally.

The ES and any other market have two basic structures: up days and down days where an up day is one which have the day low before the day high and vice versa. Learn these two.

Nothing beats knowledge and experience. This is best learned and absorbed by yourself. If you're at any point surprised when the market does something it's a clear sign you don't know your market well enough. The market should become a familiar place where you roughly know what's going to happen or what's most likely to happen on any given day.

January 18th, 2019, 02:38 PM

Fxfutures1976

If you have a mentor that is � making millions� whilst you are losing money, I suggest you see some of his audited accounts for proof. Or get a refund. He sounds like a fraud.

I am really sorry to read that. Take care.

January 18th, 2019, 02:46 PM

makusan

90% of traders loose because they spend 90% of their time on only 10% of trading (charts, methodology, strategy). 90% of trading is mastering your own PSYCHOLOGY. I am a trading psych coach. I am offering to work with you, after we have a chat. I started out my career as a clerk for a market maker at the CBOE, in the OEX pit. I hold two degrees in psychology. Contact me. [email protected]

False.

Psychology is highly overrated.

If you have a tested methodology which you can trade profitably with simulator trading using realistic parameters (no average down or similar), but find yourself having issues with real money, then - maybe then you have psychological issues.

This is NOT the case with most people.

Taking care of your methodology and market understanding usually takes care of psychological issues.

Steer away, OP.

January 18th, 2019, 02:56 PM

"as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on"

Say you get a strong bull bar and then a decent follow-thru bar. Assuming we are not an obvious resistance area and market is not climactic (and not 2nd leg trap) we are now always-in-long. There is a good chance you make money if you buy at the market for a measured move. Of course risk is high (to the bottom of the swing), so have to adjust size accordingly. Harder to do with smaller ES accounts, easier if trading large ES accounts or SPY.

As you say, pullback may come much later.

January 18th, 2019, 03:10 PM

"With all due respect. The 10,000 hour to master a craft does definitely NOT apply in learning to trade. You can maybe double or triple that amount and still no guarantees"

I totally agree. Going on 20 years of online trading and learning every day. Law of biology species survival.."observe, adapt, change ( evolve) or perish. Same is true w traders. It all takes time.

Lost & losing hope

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Lost & losing hope