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Lost & losing hope

  #61 (permalink)
 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
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chartmojo2 View Post
Chin up. There is nothing easy about trading. In the markets take a long time to learn. They say it takes 10,000 hours to master something. Think of a pro golfer. How many swings does a golfer put in before turning pro. How many practice swings do they put in ever after a pro. How many trades did you do before going live? In the markets you are up against pro's. Your paying to compete against them. Would you pay to compete against a pro golfer or poker player of Chess grand master. One really has to put in the time to learn and then practice practice practice on a great real time sim program w live data that keeps track of all your stats. Practice till you are consistently profitable and you have tweaked it until you cant get a better % profitable and win rate. Get your order execution to the instant intuitive point. Then ease into real time live $ trading. You are up against a.i.'s, algo's, elite pro gamer types, Chess Grand Master types that have 20,000 games in memory etc they are 14 moves ahead of you..(trades). People jump into trading live way to early and do not really understand what they are up against. Chess grand masters will admit they see the board, the pieces differently over time and differently that everyone else. Same with great traders. Your story is really the story of most traders unfortunately. It does take time and commitment ability etc. fascination and obsession. Think of it as getting a PHd, or becoming a golf pro. It does not come easy by any means. The best you can have is an edge and the win losses are randomly distributed with in the probabilities of the "edge". You could get all the losses up front even with the best strategy. One has to come to grips and really get that down to your core. Machines have no problem with it. That should lead one to if x occurs do x1, if y occurs do y1. As Bruce Kovner master trader put it.."imagine different scenarios, take the one that confirms."..if one gets that on a deep level you can begin to get around the 100 or so cognitive bias's we have that conspire to keep us from trading effectively. Sorry for rambling ..maybe there is something in there for you. Good luck.

With all due respect. The 10,000 hour to master a craft does definitely NOT apply in learning to trade. You can maybe double or triple that amount and still no guarantees

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  #62 (permalink)
 Fxfutures1976 
London
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: Futures and forex
Posts: 52 since Apr 2015
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allsensi View Post
Hi There and thanks for your post. I am currently in the same situation after being named as trader of the month in the place I am trading for. I have a mentor and shared my situation yesterday with him ( which is losing a lot of money all out of a sudden after winning a lot, to be simple). His two advices where helpful: 1) do not think you are special, he earns millions a year and only last summer he had a series of losing days that even led him to think he was not good for this and2) do not seek aa new method, concentrate in what you have been doing well. He also said this is a toll you have to pay from time to time to be a trader. And here is my half penny: Have you tried to trial out with some of the companies out there that allow you paper trading leading to a potential funded account? It will hurt at times but will settle your discipline and your pschyco.
Hope this helps, and...never ever give up. That is no solution.Trading is for the strong ones and these show how strong they are in the worst moments.

If you have a mentor that is “ making millions” whilst you are losing money, I suggest you see some of his audited accounts for proof. Or get a refund. He sounds like a fraud.

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  #63 (permalink)
 
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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
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Well it's no wonder people get so confused at how to trade. Just look at this thread and the multitudes of fingers pointing in different directions all trying to get you to the same place. So what direction shall I point my finger? Directly at you.

If you are truly profitable in Sim but not in live then you need to analyze every trade you have taken to find out what is different between the two. Is it your entry? Your stop loss? Your exit? Your mental state? etc etc etc etc etc etc. Analyze it to the n'th degree. Sometimes it is just a subtle hesitation that gets you in later than when you are trading sim that makes all the difference in the trade.

Maybe you don't need to turn this 750 foot long boat completely around to keep it off the rocks, just turn to the right a few degrees.

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  #64 (permalink)
rodrigoramirez
Sunnyvale, California USA
 
Posts: 1 since Jul 2017
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Hi Xevanchan,

I am not familiar with some of the techniques you mention, but there are situations you describe ring some bells.

- "been margin called" -> This may be a sign you are over trading or risking more than you should. Check some money management books. The book "Money Management Strategies for Futures Trades" by Prof. Nauzer J. Balsara is a true gem "A Trader's Money Management System" by Bennet A. McDowell also has good information. If you don't read any money management then stick to the 2% rule then, basically never risk more than 2% in any single trade. Keep in mind the old saying that your main goal initially it is not to get rich, but to survive the markets.

- "I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days" -> This is common. I have been there many times and in many cases it can be avoided:
-- Many future markets are very seasonal and what worked great for 2 or 3 months may not work at all the rest of the year. Check this site: equityclock.com. My trading results have improved significantly (fewer but higher quality trades) since I am paying close attention to seasonality patterns.
-- You also mentioned the "ES". The "ES" is one of the most volatile markets out there so when things go in your direction you make good money, but when the wind changes your stops get triggered quite often and your account bleeds. About the ES also consider that in these times un huge uncertainty the risk increase dramatically, that is why the brokers also increased the margins for the equity symbols, ES among them. Anytime the markets are in the changing from bullish to bearish or vice versa that is when most of us loose money, because what used to work well, in the markets case for years now, stops working.

- You also mentioned continuously improving. It sounds to me like chasing the perfect setting. I my opinion you will never get there because as you already experienced when you get there everything changes. If you are not doing so I strongly suggest to do a lot of walk forward optimization. Simulated or paper trading are simply not good enough. Learn about walk forward optimization. Many times it is very hard to get something that works, but your chances of succeeding are much higher if your strategy survives different walk forward scenarios. In this front what you can do depends on the platform you use. To learn about it I recommend "The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies" by Robert Pardo, this is another great book that takes time to digest but it is totally worth the time and money.

Best luck

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  #65 (permalink)
 TheBenefactor 
Pensacola FL
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2016

Was just going to post what TO just said.

If you are doing what you did in the sim over a period of time you should have similar results.

Perhaps there are emotional issue etc.

We all get "signals" and second guess them.

I am guilty too. Just today one of the people I follow suggested an early morning selloff followed by a rally.

He suggested going long dow futures around 24450 with a 25 point stop.

I thought since it broke below 8:45 am support it would go much lower. So I did nothing.

Finally had to get long 100 points higher.

How about this?

Give your rules to a third party. Let them trade it in cash (hopefully your friend does not mind some risk).

If someone else is trading "YOUR METHODS" and making good money then yes Trading O advises you look at YOU.
TB

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  #66 (permalink)
 
xevanchan's Avatar
 xevanchan 
New York City, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: emini ES/NQ
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adenis View Post
My best advice to you is that you that you listen to Futures Traders 71 (FT71) approach. First, and it is free, listen to to his webcasts and his daily market review and trading preparation work (Trader Bites). They are available on You Tube. Then if his approach makes sense to you, subscribe to FT71's Convergent Trading website (https://www.convergenttrading.com/). The monthly cost is minuscule compared to the benefits you will get out of it. That is how I learned trading and it worked for me.

Good luck.

I actually watch his trader bite every morning, and have taken as much as I can from his volume composite based ideas.

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  #67 (permalink)
Onisowo
Ocala, Florida
 
Posts: 104 since Jan 2019
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If you want to go over some ideas or need an analysis partner I am available on wednesdays.......just let me know....we can do a screen share session.......

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

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  #68 (permalink)
 steven2 
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 7
Trading: Emini
Posts: 30 since Dec 2015
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I suggest you persevere

Your trading can be refined. I think you are on the right path and with some stringent rules, you will be profitable.

1. Wait for bars to close- I see you buying before the bar closes. You don't know what the bar looks like before it closes.
2. ALWAYS buy on top of a BULL bar. NEVER on top of a bear bar.
3. If bull closes near its top but not too high in the range, it is higher quality bar. Could possibly increase your risk capital.
4. H2 (Al Brooks's 2nd entry) is the most reliable stop entry.
5. Always be aware of Always-in direction. Never buy when Always-in is short, for example.
6. Avoid tight trading ranges and flat EMA. You can get chopped to pieces, as can be seen from one of your graphs.
7. If trades run away from you, forget them. You only need 2-3 good trades a day & swing them. Or switch to always-in trading.
8. Only use stop orders. No limit orders (too advanced). Possibly pepper in some follow-thru buy-the-close.

I spend 2 hours every day after trading hours to annotate my intraday chart. I keep a personal blog of everything on the intraday chart, and all my trades, why they worked or not.

Suggest printing a lot of historical charts and annotating them as well.

I trade 5-min. charts, Al Brooks style. Only 20EMA on the chart and support/resistance from yesterday, etc.

Good luck. I am writing this during trading day. Hope have some more input later...

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  #69 (permalink)
 
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 DavidBodhi 
Milwaukee, WI, USA
 
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xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.

I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

I took advice on my last post ( I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.

It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.

One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.

In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.

I concur with several other commenters. If you are looking at a volume-based chart, you are not looking a 'price action'. You are looking at 'volume action'. It is not reasonable to assume that patterns of volume behave the same way as patterns of price. Price action is about movement of price over time. There might be patterns in 'volume action' that are tradable, but I've never heard of anyone analyzing that.

Personally, I find non-time-based charts to mislead. A renko chart showing a 10 point rally over 3 seconds looks identical to a 10 point rally that took 3 hours, but I'd expect radically different reactions to those two moves. But you'd never know it from looking at a renko chart.

A fairly casual look at your screen shots suggests to me that fear is making you delay entry so long you're going in the right direction at the wrong time. However, that's based on me looking at price/time charts for 5 years, for about the same amount of time each day that you have been for the last year. If it's really because your signals are telling you to enter then, then they're not good signals, despite your verbal description of your approach, which sounds perfectly fine.

Someone suggested going 3 months profitable in sim and without seeing new problems before venturing into live trading again. I agree with that. Sure, lots of people say Sim is a waste, because of the radically different emotional reaction to using real money, but if you're going to use price action, you really need to be looking at price/time charts, which means you'll be taking steps back and need confirmation that your trade signals actually work with price action charts. You might also consider adding a good DOM ladder to fine-tune your analysis of the action.

Ok, done with my $0.02.

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  #70 (permalink)
 
xevanchan's Avatar
 xevanchan 
New York City, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker: Dorman Trading
Trading: emini ES/NQ
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TradingOgre View Post
Well it's no wonder people get so confused at how to trade. Just look at this thread and the multitudes of fingers pointing in different directions all trying to get you to the same place. So what direction shall I point my finger? Directly at you.

If you are truly profitable in Sim but not in live then you need to analyze every trade you have taken to find out what is different between the two. Is it your entry? Your stop loss? Your exit? Your mental state? etc etc etc etc etc etc. Analyze it to the n'th degree. Sometimes it is just a subtle hesitation that gets you in later than when you are trading sim that makes all the difference in the trade.

Maybe you don't need to turn this 750 foot long boat completely around to keep it off the rocks, just turn to the right a few degrees.

I was just thinking that. I'm truly grateful for all the answers, but every individual has their own custom fit strategy that works for them, and there are too many different alleys for me to go down. I think I've narrowed down my problems to entry and chop, but I think my mental state could be playing a large factor as well.

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