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Lost & losing hope
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Lost & losing hope

  #31 (permalink)
Thailand
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Daytradr
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Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 764 since Dec 2010
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As a day trader, you are missing a major piece of the puzzle, order flow. You are severely handicapping yourself by trading merely off the charts.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #32 (permalink)
near Amsterdam
 
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My suggestion :

Either give up trading entirely and move on... (there is SO MUCH more to life than trading)

OR

Forget about trading live for the foreseeable future. Find a source of income to survive. Unless you have at least a $10k account, switch to cash Forex and trade tiny size (say, 10c / pip) on much slower charts, min H1 (D1 would be best). Use a free MT4 account in simulation mode with someone like Oanda.

If and only if you can put together 3 consecutive profitable months with acceptable drawdowns, then consider trading live again.

If you cannot bring yourself to stop trading live (and apologies if you have), then look seriously & honestly at why this is.

Good luck and enjoy & focus on the process.

Edit : one more thing....


xevanchan View Post
It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

Do not trade live until you understand that no new problems are springing up.

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  #33 (permalink)
London
 
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Platform: cqg integrated,ninjatrade
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xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.

I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

I took advice on my last post (https://futures.io/emini-index-futures-trading/45814-catastrophic-loss-days.html); I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.

It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.

One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.

In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.

Have you only been learning for a year? If so, give yourself at least 5 years, some people may be quicker or longer. But if you can survive 5 years without blowing up, you might just have a chance of success. You need to be obsessed with acheaving your goal of being consistanly profitable.

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  #34 (permalink)
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Bullcharts
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Posts: 2 since Dec 2014
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xevanchan

There may be at least two things you are not doing right.



heikin-ashi bars look nice but they do not reflect the real price action if you study how they are mathematically composed. They draw nice pretty bars but often in different places to the where the real price action falls. Use the H, L and the C format and you will get accurate entry and exit points, if you are soley relying on price action to interpret the market. I would not recommend you rely solely on interpreting price action. Even Gann suggested he would make losses when he relied on space measurements alone.

Learn how to read buying and selling volume within bars or across bars, or better still, learn how to measure the forces of supply & demand that causes the price action. Rather than trying to interpret price effects which have no foundation, certainly not from using heikin ashi bars.
Regards

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  #35 (permalink)
Madrid Spain
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Continuum
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xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.

I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

I took advice on my last post (https://futures.io/emini-index-futures-trading/45814-catastrophic-loss-days.html); I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.

It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.

One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.

In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.

Hi There and thanks for your post. I am currently in the same situation after being named as trader of the month in the place I am trading for. I have a mentor and shared my situation yesterday with him ( which is losing a lot of money all out of a sudden after winning a lot, to be simple). His two advices where helpful: 1) do not think you are special, he earns millions a year and only last summer he had a series of losing days that even led him to think he was not good for this and2) do not seek aa new method, concentrate in what you have been doing well. He also said this is a toll you have to pay from time to time to be a trader. And here is my half penny: Have you tried to trial out with some of the companies out there that allow you paper trading leading to a potential funded account? It will hurt at times but will settle your discipline and your pschyco.
Hope this helps, and...never ever give up. That is no solution.Trading is for the strong ones and these show how strong they are in the worst moments.

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  #36 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
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To many decisions leads to poorer decision making.


xevanchan View Post
I typically start at 10 after identifying a trend and then call it quits around 2:30. I used to trade 9:30 to 11, but since increasing my chart from 30s to 7500 vol I've found myself having significantly less opportunities so I've been forcing myself to trade into the late afternoon. I have to work on my focus though because when I give 100% focus I tend to overtrade due to a combination of overanalysis / confirmation bias and sheer boredom. I appreciate the advice- I think I'll cut an hour or two off.

I'm not an expert in any of the issues you discussed in your original post, nor do I have words of wisdom for your particular style, method or mental/emotional issues. We are all on a journey and while we can help each other, ultimately its your internal dialogue that determines your success. You must find your own path in your time and in your own way.

That said, I would offer this little note. My trading got a lot better when I stopped trying for big wins and instead focused on a reasonable profit on a reasonable time frame. With that in mind, it may make some sense to look at trading less, not more time.

I offer you an educated reason why in the attachment below.

Good luck on your journey!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Attached Thumbnails
Lost & losing hope-do-you-suffer-decision-fatigue_-nytimes.pdf  
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  #37 (permalink)
montreal + Canada
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Investor RT + IB
Favorite Futures: Interest Rate Futures
 
Posts: 1 since Feb 2016
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Trying to Help

My best advice to you is that you that you listen to Futures Traders 71 (FT71) approach. First, and it is free, listen to to his webcasts and his daily market review and trading preparation work (Trader Bites). They are available on You Tube. Then if his approach makes sense to you, subscribe to FT71's Convergent Trading website (www.convergenttrading.com). The monthly cost is minuscule compared to the benefits you will get out of it. That is how I learned trading and it worked for me.

Good luck.

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  #38 (permalink)
Boston, MA. United States
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Favorite Futures: Futures and Forex
 
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Posts: 91 since Sep 2011
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One of the turning points in my trading career was buying bloodhound.

Before I continue, I have no relationship or financial interests with them so just take this as one guy offering another guy advice. Bloodhound (programming in general) is very helpful because it allows you the ability to prove and realize that 99% of the indicators and methods you think work, don't.

I've literally Google "best trading strategies" found a bunch of systems... Heikenasi this, macd that, blah blah blah. Built them, tested them.... Complete garbage. However, sometimes, they win. Which is the great trick to fool you into believing in something that has no edge.

This backwards process of taking all the indicators out of the toolbox and trying to build profitable mechanical systems will lead you down the path to realizing that its almost all useless.

Why heikenasi? Why volume bars? Why those colorful squiggly lines on the bottom of your chart?

Until you can prove or disprove that the tools and methods you're using have any sort of reliable value, you're just sitting in front of a different kind of slot machine and some times you win which makes you feel like you're on the right track.

A couple of other pieces of advice are, 1. The only people making consistent money are the brokers and vendors. 2. Your job is to take high risk to reward trades and lean on an edge. 2 to 1.... What a waste of time. 3. There's more important things in life than these colorful lines and flashy numbers, don't get caught up in the glamor. 4. Realize that everyone is selling you something (see 1.), don't buy it unless they have LIVE trackrecords to back it up.

Hope it helps.

FIBBEE
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  #39 (permalink)
london uk
 
Trading Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader
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Here's my 2c on it.

1 Move to 1 contract
2 Forget ES, contemplate YM. You get more ticks for the same move, less risk and far less choppy than NQ
3 Use a 1 min chart, with some MA's (10,20,50.100 & 200). The MA's will better illustrate the chop for you.
4 Pay attention to the left side of the chart, the prev hour or 2 will tell you loads.
5 Maybe trade pre 930, far less choppy and should lessen the stress level. I only see people getting cut to ribbons the majority of that that time.
6 Look to achieve nothing more than $200 per day on 1 contract.
7 once you have made consistent (month minimum) profits then move to 2 contracts

My final words are that trading the 930-1030 window is something i avoid like the plague. Wait for the market to settle. Patience is key. Lastly if you look at January's trading ranges you will find range contraction and intra day chop, I had an unbelievable Q4 18 and yet i'm flat so far this year. Trade the market you have, not the one you had. My aim at the mo is just to be up every day, whether that is 1 or 1000 bucks.

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  #40 (permalink)
london uk
 
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And avoid the above post like ebola, plague and smallpox rolled into one!

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