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SP500 ES bits and pieces
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SP500 ES bits and pieces

  #11 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
What does insider mean exactly?

SEC reported BUYS/SELLS by company employees , directors , board members

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  #12 (permalink)
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Ozquant View Post
SEC reported BUYS/SELLS by company employees , directors , board members

Should we infer that since they are insiders they know something the rest of us mere mortals are unaware of and consequently are more likely to align with a solid reversal or bottom?

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  #13 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Should we infer that since they are insiders they know something the rest of us mere mortals are unaware of and consequently are more likely to align with a solid reversal or bottom?

Not inferring too much at this stage given the liquidity and relative small size of insider in last week , but given the ratio of insider sells to buys over last 12 months its worth taking note to follow up . Fair to say relatively , insiders are more likely to have insight on whats value in their company compared to ' mere ' mortals , whatever that implies . All im doing here is looking for facts to quantify to make better decisions , i think i do ok . I try to have no biases and i am neither bull or bear , just looking for any swing in either direction to ride with a positive probability ( edge ) .

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  #14 (permalink)
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SP500 forward earnings / revenue / margin spreads can be a useful tool in the longer term



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  #15 (permalink)
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Given the holiday induced low liquidity last couple of trading days not much to be gleaned from price action , Rally of recent lows now as high as 8.8% so not far to go till i tag my initial target of 10.3% of lows . My short term model still has room for more upside beyond that so will keep a small runner above 10% , willing to buy algo triggered signals on dips above 10% where i will hold daytrades only until my model regime flips bearish . This plan has played out nicely



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  #16 (permalink)
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Ozquant View Post
Given the holiday induced low liquidity last couple of trading days not much to be gleaned from price action , Rally of recent lows now as high as 8.8% so not far to go till i tag my initial target of 10.3% of lows . My short term model still has room for more upside beyond that so will keep a small runner above 10% , willing to buy algo triggered signals on dips above 10% where i will hold daytrades only until my model regime flips bearish . This plan has played out nicely

8 days to tag 10.7% rise from lows . can cash out large part of longs here today for nice profit ( ES AND NQ ). Still holding SPX options that are now in the money with 10 days to expiry . Thats the easy money , now more daytrading buying dips from here . Regime filter still maintaining bullish outlook

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SPX range finder which is a work in progress looks solid

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  #17 (permalink)
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Next week getting time to flip bias here , looking for shorts and spikes to trade into . The Bull honeymoon is almost over here imo

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Ozquant View Post
I think probably the first time this year where insider buying > insider selling fwiw


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Once market liquidity returned the insider ratio is stil bearish but a key takeaway is that still nowhere near as bearish as 2018 as a collective


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Ozquant View Post
SP500 forward earnings / revenue / margin spreads can be a useful tool in the longer term

SPX forward earn consensus '18 Q4 still trending down as is '19

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Is history telling us anything here ?


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Given in 2008 SPX was so far below the 200DMA there was no significant bounce is stocks above 200DMA so that explains that anomaly

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Last edited by Ozquant; January 12th, 2019 at 08:54 PM.
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