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Catastrophic Loss Days
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Catastrophic Loss Days

  #1 (permalink)
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Catastrophic Loss Days

I apologize in advance for all the questions and the long post.
I'm sure posts like this are quite common, but despite trading being my #1 priority, I can't seem to become profitable.

I have a clear edge... some days. I've been trading the ES for months now, using a trend based strategy to scalp. My account always seems to get wiped out by one day of absolutely catastrophic losses, like today- I seem to be a much more competent paper trader than cash trader. I'm thinking about setting a max loss, but I hate closing in the red, which is something i will have to learn to live with.

My loss days are consistent in that they are always significantly larger than my winning days. Am I the only one who absolutely cannot trade on certain days? With my strategy, the worst days for me tend to be choppy days and days where chop is accompanied by sharp breakouts and then chop again. On these days, even if i see what would typically be a good opportunity, it's usually a fake-out or a reversal/big retrace hits me out of nowhere. I also find it difficult to determine trend exhaustion in these scenarios. It just seems so random, but there has to be a method to the madness.

I generally trade a 2-6 tick target and a 2-3 point stop loss and have also considered my stop loss to possibly be too big.
Over the last few weeks my average win is around 3.75 ticks and average loss around 9.5 ticks, so each stop loss is really brutal. I aim for 2-3 points a day.

I also wonder if the retracements I try to enter in are too small, and I should trade off the 30S chart more than the 100T chart. I usually look for retracements that are at least bigger than my targets, but maybe i should be looking for retraces that are at least a few points.

I find that i miss out on many good opportunities when the DOM is moving too fast for me to set a limit order. Aside from placing a market order, how can I trade in these situations?

Lastly, I would appreciate any tips and tricks or anything useful for me to look into. i'm sticking to my strategy, but i'm open to any valuable techniques or strategies that you use in your trading. I want to make sure i'm not missing something obvious.

I apologize if these are novice questions, but I'm really just lost and don't know what to do in some situations.
I'm attaching a screenshot of terrible trades I made today, though I obviously overtraded a bit after taking the initial loss. Feel free to beat me up over it.

I appreciate all the advice I can get- Cheers!

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  #3 (permalink)
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Hi xevanchan,

The short answer is that you need to kick the tires on your "edge" more. The long answer is that you have to be able to handle all market conditions and not just those that are favorable for your trading strategy.

For example, when the market is moving straight up or straight down, trend follow systems do well. Everyone's first lesson in trading is how to do well on strong trend days, using moving averages and MACDs is akin to learning to program "hello world" for the first time. Can you get all the way there with just this? Absolutely not.

By contrast the opposite style of trading (Ranges) trades on the concept of shorter profit targets and longer stop losses and due to the market having no direction, you will hit your profit target way more frequently than a stop provided that you set your stop reasonably out of the range the market is moving.

So these are the two main types of markets and a very brief description of the basics for trading these. The hard part, that most traders overlook is that you have to be able to quantify when you are in which market, and when one cycle will stop and another will start. This is where you would need to focus to be successful IMO.

Before you trade with money again, see if your system, rules, edge, etc. can pass this test:

How does it perform when the market is trending strong?
How does it perform when it is in a range?
Can you adapt to have different rules to combat each?
Can you reasonably predict when the market will change from one cycle to another?

Once you can crack this, then move to cash trading... Most won't be able to pass this part, so if anything you will save money by staying in SIM.

For the record I am not a day trader, so there are likely others that can offer better advice, but I'll just throw my two cents out there in case it helps.

Ian









xevanchan View Post
I apologize in advance for all the questions and the long post.
I'm sure posts like this are quite common, but despite trading being my #1 priority, I can't seem to become profitable.

I have a clear edge... some days. I've been trading the ES for months now, using a trend based strategy to scalp. My account always seems to get wiped out by one day of absolutely catastrophic losses, like today- I seem to be a much more competent paper trader than cash trader. I'm thinking about setting a max loss, but I hate closing in the red, which is something i will have to learn to live with.

My loss days are consistent in that they are always significantly larger than my winning days. Am I the only one who absolutely cannot trade on certain days? With my strategy, the worst days for me tend to be choppy days and days where chop is accompanied by sharp breakouts and then chop again. On these days, even if i see what would typically be a good opportunity, it's usually a fake-out or a reversal/big retrace hits me out of nowhere. I also find it difficult to determine trend exhaustion in these scenarios. It just seems so random, but there has to be a method to the madness.

I generally trade a 2-6 tick target and a 2-3 point stop loss and have also considered my stop loss to possibly be too big.
Over the last few weeks my average win is around 3.75 ticks and average loss around 9.5 ticks, so each stop loss is really brutal. I aim for 2-3 points a day.

I also wonder if the retracements I try to enter in are too small, and I should trade off the 30S chart more than the 100T chart. I usually look for retracements that are at least bigger than my targets, but maybe i should be looking for retraces that are at least a few points.

I find that i miss out on many good opportunities when the DOM is moving too fast for me to set a limit order. Aside from placing a market order, how can I trade in these situations?

Lastly, I would appreciate any tips and tricks or anything useful for me to look into. i'm sticking to my strategy, but i'm open to any valuable techniques or strategies that you use in your trading. I want to make sure i'm not missing something obvious.

I apologize if these are novice questions, but I'm really just lost and don't know what to do in some situations.
I'm attaching a screenshot of terrible trades I made today, though I obviously overtraded a bit after taking the initial loss. Feel free to beat me up over it.

I appreciate all the advice I can get- Cheers!


In the analytical world there is no such thing as art, there is only the science you know and the science you don't know. Characterizing the science you don't know as "art" is a fools game.
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  #4 (permalink)
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xevanchan View Post
I apologize in advance for all the questions and the long post.
I'm sure posts like this are quite common, but despite trading being my #1 priority, I can't seem to become profitable.

How long have you been trying? So many people come to trading thinking that they can be profitable within a very short time frame. Don't expect to earn a doctors wage on an elementary education. Be patient, it takes time.


Quoting 
I have a clear edge... some days. I've been trading the ES for months now, using a trend based strategy to scalp. My account always seems to get wiped out by one day of absolutely catastrophic losses, like today- I seem to be a much more competent paper trader than cash trader. I'm thinking about setting a max loss, but I hate closing in the red, which is something i will have to learn to live with.

My loss days are consistent in that they are always significantly larger than my winning days. Am I the only one who absolutely cannot trade on certain days?

It's rare for any single strategy to be profitable all the time. What are all of the indicators on your chart doing for you? It's possible that since you are scalping that most if not all of these are too slow to respond to current conditions.


Quoting 
With my strategy, the worst days for me tend to be choppy days and days where chop is accompanied by sharp breakouts and then chop again. On these days, even if i see what would typically be a good opportunity, it's usually a fake-out or a reversal/big retrace hits me out of nowhere. I also find it difficult to determine trend exhaustion in these scenarios. It just seems so random, but there has to be a method to the madness.

You have to be prepared for unexpected reversals. All it takes is for Trump to tweet something and the markets will pop hard in one direction. Usually later in the day one of his aids will speak out and retract what Trump said and the markets will swing back the other direction. I refer to it as a Trump and Dump.

Be aware of how much ES tends to move on any given wave. Yeah, there will always be times it exceeds that, so what. You don't need to catch the entire trend to make good money. Your second trade came in after ES had already made about an 80 tick move since the market open about 10 minutes prior. That's quite a move for ES. When it moves that much wait for a significant pull back before even considering another trade in that direction. In other words, you need to become intimately familiar with how ES moves.


Quoting 
I generally trade a 2-6 tick target and a 2-3 point stop loss and have also considered my stop loss to possibly be too big.
Over the last few weeks my average win is around 3.75 ticks and average loss around 9.5 ticks, so each stop loss is really brutal. I aim for 2-3 points a day.

The fact that your stop is about 2-4 times as big as your profit target is your biggest issue. Recovery time after a single loss will be hard to overcome. You will need multiple consecutive wins to overcome one single loss. Hard to focus on the next trade when one trade just wiped all of your profits and then some.

Find ways to reduce your stop and increase your target. The ways these markets are moving right now you may not be able to reduce your stop size but you can most certainly increase your target. If you don't you will need an amazing hit rate to remain profitable.



Quoting 
I also wonder if the retracements I try to enter in are too small, and I should trade off the 30S chart more than the 100T chart. I usually look for retracements that are at least bigger than my targets, but maybe i should be looking for retraces that are at least a few points.

Why did you take the second trade? ES had just made a significant move up (about 20 points). I don't really see any pull back to trade off of. Looks almost like a FOMO trade (Fear of Missing Out).


Quoting 
I find that i miss out on many good opportunities when the DOM is moving too fast for me to set a limit order. Aside from placing a market order, how can I trade in these situations?

Hot keys can be your friend here or trade directly on the chart by enabling chart trader. It will allow you to right click on the chart where you want your entry then just select the type from the menu. My mind is too slow for the DOM, I like to trade visually.


Quoting 
Lastly, I would appreciate any tips and tricks or anything useful for me to look into. i'm sticking to my strategy, but i'm open to any valuable techniques or strategies that you use in your trading. I want to make sure i'm not missing something obvious.

I apologize if these are novice questions, but I'm really just lost and don't know what to do in some situations.
I'm attaching a screenshot of terrible trades I made today, though I obviously overtraded a bit after taking the initial loss. Feel free to beat me up over it.

I appreciate all the advice I can get- Cheers!

This forum isn't like most forums out there. The people here for the most part genuinely want to help you and see you succeed.

1. Study your charts. Zoom out. Look at how ES moves the first few minutes of a trading day. What happens later? Maybe the key for your trading style is to step aside for a period of time then start trading. Look for times of the day that are more favorable to your trading style and experience.
2. Study your trades IN DETAIL. Keep a journal. Analyze every single trade for what went right what went wrong, etc. Look for key characteristics of the good and the bad trades.
3. Be patient. It takes far more time to learn than most realize.
4. Psychology of trading live is much different than sim trading. This is the most difficult thing for anyone to learn.
5. There is no shame in dropping back to sim for a few days to work out issues you are having. I just did it for the entire week because I had been away from trading for over a month and I am very happy that I did. Took me until today to get back into the rhythm of trading. Trade sim just like you would trade live and analyze every trade.

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  #5 (permalink)
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xevanchan View Post
I apologize in advance for all the questions and the long post.
I'm sure posts like this are quite common, but despite trading being my #1 priority, I can't seem to become profitable.

I have a clear edge... some days. I've been trading the ES for months now, using a trend based strategy to scalp. My account always seems to get wiped out by one day of absolutely catastrophic losses, like today- I seem to be a much more competent paper trader than cash trader. I'm thinking about setting a max loss, but I hate closing in the red, which is something i will have to learn to live with.

My loss days are consistent in that they are always significantly larger than my winning days. Am I the only one who absolutely cannot trade on certain days? With my strategy, the worst days for me tend to be choppy days and days where chop is accompanied by sharp breakouts and then chop again. On these days, even if i see what would typically be a good opportunity, it's usually a fake-out or a reversal/big retrace hits me out of nowhere. I also find it difficult to determine trend exhaustion in these scenarios. It just seems so random, but there has to be a method to the madness.

I generally trade a 2-6 tick target and a 2-3 point stop loss and have also considered my stop loss to possibly be too big.
Over the last few weeks my average win is around 3.75 ticks and average loss around 9.5 ticks, so each stop loss is really brutal. I aim for 2-3 points a day.

I also wonder if the retracements I try to enter in are too small, and I should trade off the 30S chart more than the 100T chart. I usually look for retracements that are at least bigger than my targets, but maybe i should be looking for retraces that are at least a few points.

I find that i miss out on many good opportunities when the DOM is moving too fast for me to set a limit order. Aside from placing a market order, how can I trade in these situations?

Lastly, I would appreciate any tips and tricks or anything useful for me to look into. i'm sticking to my strategy, but i'm open to any valuable techniques or strategies that you use in your trading. I want to make sure i'm not missing something obvious.

I apologize if these are novice questions, but I'm really just lost and don't know what to do in some situations.
I'm attaching a screenshot of terrible trades I made today, though I obviously overtraded a bit after taking the initial loss. Feel free to beat me up over it.

I appreciate all the advice I can get- Cheers!

I would start with this. Don't go lower than the than a 200 tick chart. Take less trades. Refine your trade setups. Look for retracements with waves of two, no more than 61.8 retracement. Don't take trades any less than 1:1 risk.. Trade with the trend, higher time frame intraday charts. If you're trading retracments you're usually going for measured move targets. This isn't an easy answer, this is like a webinar series and years of practice and failing (experience).

Failing and anxiety are apart of learning something new. If you fail, get back up and push through the pain, and it’s okay to be uncomfortable.
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  #6 (permalink)
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xevanchan View Post
I apologize in advance for all the questions and the long post.
I'm sure posts like this are quite common, but despite trading being my #1 priority, I can't seem to become profitable.

I have a clear edge... some days. I've been trading the ES for months now, using a trend based strategy to scalp. My account always seems to get wiped out by one day of absolutely catastrophic losses, like today- I seem to be a much more competent paper trader than cash trader. I'm thinking about setting a max loss, but I hate closing in the red, which is something i will have to learn to live with.

My loss days are consistent in that they are always significantly larger than my winning days. Am I the only one who absolutely cannot trade on certain days? With my strategy, the worst days for me tend to be choppy days and days where chop is accompanied by sharp breakouts and then chop again. On these days, even if i see what would typically be a good opportunity, it's usually a fake-out or a reversal/big retrace hits me out of nowhere. I also find it difficult to determine trend exhaustion in these scenarios. It just seems so random, but there has to be a method to the madness.

I generally trade a 2-6 tick target and a 2-3 point stop loss and have also considered my stop loss to possibly be too big.
Over the last few weeks my average win is around 3.75 ticks and average loss around 9.5 ticks, so each stop loss is really brutal. I aim for 2-3 points a day.

I also wonder if the retracements I try to enter in are too small, and I should trade off the 30S chart more than the 100T chart. I usually look for retracements that are at least bigger than my targets, but maybe i should be looking for retraces that are at least a few points.

I find that i miss out on many good opportunities when the DOM is moving too fast for me to set a limit order. Aside from placing a market order, how can I trade in these situations?

Lastly, I would appreciate any tips and tricks or anything useful for me to look into. i'm sticking to my strategy, but i'm open to any valuable techniques or strategies that you use in your trading. I want to make sure i'm not missing something obvious.

I apologize if these are novice questions, but I'm really just lost and don't know what to do in some situations.
I'm attaching a screenshot of terrible trades I made today, though I obviously overtraded a bit after taking the initial loss. Feel free to beat me up over it.

I appreciate all the advice I can get- Cheers!

I think we all have been in this situation, I to use to scalp a few ticks from the es and it's hard yes it is do able but a few things need to change. You need to be hitting a minimum of 1:2 risk reward. Look at a high time frame check a 1000 tick chart. We have all been there where we want to trade every second and I know I still get caught up in this and certain days I take way to many trades but slow it down and try to think big picture... go with the flow ... and yeah some days are just shitty days I walked away with 7 puts nq today when I was signaled in to 4 trades that would of been 90 pts.... some days are just shitty but keep a journal keep reflecting what's wrong a pick 1 thing to change every week and eventually you will be where you want to.... this is a life long marathon


Good luck


-P

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  #7 (permalink)
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@TradingOgre I've been trading paper and live for just about 5-6 months now- the indicators are somewhat redundant and I may just take your advice and remove them- the woodies and wavetrend are supposed to help me identify trends and are supposedly "non-lagging" indicators, but I don't look at them often at all

I looked into my stop loss after reading your post and realized you're right in that my 2x+ stop loss is definitely too large. I'm going to make my stop significantly lower, maybe 2-6 ticks. I also figured that larger targets (6-12) are the way to go, even if I have to sacrifice hit rate. My MFE is consistently larger than my profits.

I made that second trade because my issue with the DOM- I couldn't get in on a retrace because it was moving too damn quick- by the time I executed on a tiny retrace, it was already overextended and the reversal hit me hard. Im sure FOMO played a role as well. The momentum seemed strong but looking back it wasn't a trade I should have taken

Thanks for the tips- I've been keeping a journal and think i'm getting better every week!

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  #8 (permalink)
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@MiniP I appreciate the kind words!

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  #9 (permalink)
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iantg View Post
Hi xevanchan,

For the record I am not a day trader, so there are likely others that can offer better advice, but I'll just throw my two cents out there in case it helps.

Ian

Interested to hear that you are not a day trader. This is the route l would like to follow too. What instruments are you trading and what strategy steer you using? Also, do you trade off daily or weekly charts? Thanks, Paul

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As others have said. Better Reward:Risk ratio and larger profit targets.
I bet your day pictured went something like this:

Place the first trade and you automatically exit for a point profit.
Price goes up a bit more then comes back to where you had entered so you are pleased that you took a point rather than getting stopped at break even.
Price quickly goes up a dozen points or so and you are kicking yourself and finally get back in long twelve points above your previous long entry, then take a loss larger than your previous win and find yourself negative despite price having gone up like you thought. Then you throw away more money in frustration.

Also "I'm thinking about setting a max loss, but I hate closing in the red". Better to stop and take a small losing day when things aren't working, and know that your average winning day is greater so you can easily make it back tomorrow or the next day. Stopping for the day and switching off can be hard but feeling pleased with yourself afterwards because you followed your loss rules and having the confidence that you can easily make it back with a good day is much better than switching off at the end of the day feeling emotionally drained and like a complete idiot as well.

And decide too on a rule for your trading plan so that when you do reach your Maximum Daily Loss you know whether you will:

1. Switch off the computer and step away and do something else.
2. Step away but keep screen recording for the rest of the session so you can watch it back later and still learn from it.
3. Keep watching the screen and learn from today's price action and market movements (but close your DOM just to be on the safe side and avoid anything impulsive).
4. Sim trade. Personally I wouldn't. If you sim trade and make the money back you will be tempted to carry on next time. If you sim trade and lose more you are just mentally reinforcing probably poor technique.

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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