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Identifying Trend DAys (early)
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Identifying Trend DAys (early)

  #31 (permalink)
Pretoria, South Africa
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
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Sure, here's a 2000 number of trades chart. Bid Ask differentials on chart region 2 and Bid Ask MA on chart region 3. 2x and 3x delta on the respective studies are also plotted to show extremes. On strong trend days, these deltas will get tested regularly and should not be faded. On normal distribution days, these extremes usually give sweet entries

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  #32 (permalink)
Leipzi Germany
 
 
Posts: 18 since Dec 2011
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just use some S/R on your chart and watch what happens

put HOY LOY and COY from the RTH session on your chart and look for SA, BB (failed BOs) and breakout pullback
also put the shallowest TLs from the prior day on your chart

also check out this blog Nine Transitions: Search results for trend day

Yesterday was a nice trend day after we had SA (sellers above HOY)
https://plus.google.com/u/0/+ThomasDeutschmannPATrader/posts/aGDPo61riLN

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  #33 (permalink)
Toronto, Canada
 
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jproux View Post
Sure, here's a 2000 number of trades chart. Bid Ask differentials on chart region 2 and Bid Ask MA on chart region 3. 2x and 3x delta on the respective studies are also plotted to show extremes. On strong trend days, these deltas will get tested regularly and should not be faded. On normal distribution days, these extremes usually give sweet entries

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What's the name of the study in region #2?
Can you share your settings for this chart?

If your edge puts the odds in your favor, then every loss puts you that much closer to a win.

Last edited by PavelFD; June 5th, 2018 at 02:55 PM.
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  #34 (permalink)
London UK
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: InvestorRT/TT/DTN.IQ
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ValueFocused View Post
The most important thing is to identify a potential trend day fairly early in the day. Once you are aware that you are in a trending market, trading it is fairly easy. Of course, identifying it can be fairly tricky, seeing as the type of trend days you are specifying are fairly rare. You'll take a lot of losers hunting the parabolic trend day whale.

I do have some tricks for identifying and entering trend days, but I think I'm going to make a thread about it, and it will take a bit to write it all up.

I look forward to your thread, sounds v interesting.

I have a few thoughts of my own r.e. identifying trend days.
Important to note that trading is tough and nothing is guaranteed.
You need to have at least a basic idea about market structure, where traders are trapped etc. And even then it might be a fakoeout.


1) Was there an inside day the day before? If so then a break of the range 'might'signal a trend day as one side has to exit fast. Of course, it could also be a fake out!

2) Has the.market been in an accumulation/distribution phase for a few days? This could be a few inside days in a row, or on a 1 hour chart, or zoomed out 15 min chart, prices just staying within a range. Again, if this channel breaks there will be a chance of a big unwind as one side has to exit.

3) The big one
Has a fundamental news story come out that will result in your market needing to reprice itself to a new level. This is pivotal. On most days price moves between technical levels and S/R and this is where the work comes in at identifying where price is likely to react. This is basically traders just pinging price around for a laugh, running it up, smashing it down, breaking S/R levels and moving it to a different price level but not to the extent of a trend day when price is clearly moving to a new area. Think of a cattle auction where price has stayed at around 30 dollars a kg. News comes out that a famine has wiped out all the cattle in argentina. Price will move based on this new fundamental info which is totally different to the 'moving price round for a laugh' type of price action.

This last point is pretty much the best way to look at trading. I've been on courses for months that use all kinds of jargon and none of them could come up with a succinct way of putting it. Well maybe they did but they threw so much stuff at you, or used such obtuse language that you my have never registered it!

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  #35 (permalink)
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PavelFD View Post
What's the name of the study in region #2?
Can you share your settings for this chart?

It's called cumulative delta.
Another great example of nonsensical trading jargon. It means 'people buying or selling using market orders.'

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  #36 (permalink)
Pensacola FL
 
 
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Big Mike View Post
Sounds like way too much work, I'll pass.

Mike

This is a chat room where we can discuss trading. LOL. It is called futures.io

The earlier one defines a "trend day" the more it is a counter trend.

Use your eyes. When I started on the floor of the NYSE we did not even have a Texas Instrument to calculate option premiums every five minutes.

Linda Raschke's first job was to follow about 5 stocks and every five minutes write down on an index card strike price premiums, over and under valued, and volume.

Trust me, we learned a lot that way.

Even today you can do that. When you see a long trend developing, buy the futures, Hedge with the relatively new weekly options. Try to remain neutral with a bias to the trend.

TB

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  #37 (permalink)
St. Louis
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
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So called trend days are rare and I don't know what might indicate for one in advance (or any duration of trend for that matter).


rrvb View Post
The trend will continue until it doesn't.

That's the best way to start looking at it, imo. Then develop some criteria for identifying reversal and flag patterns. There are variations of each. They give a more realistic indication of when to hold and fold and its a more reasonable goal than trying to predict a trend before it begins. And you can use it to trade more types of days.

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