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I want to set up a short for the YM. What do you thnk?
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I want to set up a short for the YM. What do you thnk?

  #1 (permalink)
Spokane Valley, WA, USA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
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I want to set up a short for the YM. What do you thnk?

I got to thinking about this idea tonight and would like some feedback. So, I am of the belief that we are in an overbought situation. I don't know if QE3 will happen but I have a firm belief that this market is going down. With that said, what about placing an order with stops to take advantage of a big downturn? I don't know if people already do this or maybe the idea sounds ludicrous. I am a newer trader and so I am subject to be wrong about 99% of the time. Still, I know this market is headed down and want to take advantage of it.

My thinking is to short the YM and set my sell entry at 11850, below resistance. Enter there and let it run to 11900? A stop at 11845? Is the YM $5 per tick/point? I think that is right.

If you guys say I'm crazy, I can take that. There must a be way though to take advantage of a market that you think is going to come down in a sudden spike. I don't see a lot of downside with a stop on place. Please tell me what you think or how you might adjust it. I think I would have to obviously keep my eye on it because of the market starts heading down gradually, I would have to adjust my entries. I am thinking of a SUDDEN down turn. I am not that familiar though with the YM and I don't know how much it would drop in a scenario like that. I would also be up for doing something with the VIX also. Do you guys have any kind of future plays like this?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Tampa, FL
 
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pricestudent View Post
I got to thinking about this idea tonight and would like some feedback. So, I am of the belief that we are in an overbought situation. I don't know if QE3 will happen but I have a firm belief that this market is going down. With that said, what about placing an order with stops to take advantage of a big downturn? I don't know if people already do this or maybe the idea sounds ludicrous. I am a newer trader and so I am subject to be wrong about 99% of the time. Still, I know this market is headed down and want to take advantage of it.

My thinking is to short the YM and set my sell entry at 11850, below resistance. Enter there and let it run to 11900? A stop at 11845? Is the YM $5 per tick/point? I think that is right.

If you guys say I'm crazy, I can take that. There must a be way though to take advantage of a market that you think is going to come down in a sudden spike. I don't see a lot of downside with a stop on place. Please tell me what you think or how you might adjust it. I think I would have to obviously keep my eye on it because of the market starts heading down gradually, I would have to adjust my entries. I am thinking of a SUDDEN down turn. I am not that familiar though with the YM and I don't know how much it would drop in a scenario like that. I would also be up for doing something with the VIX also. Do you guys have any kind of future plays like this?

What you described is a long trade. Also the YM is at 13150 right now. Am I missing something?

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  #4 (permalink)
Bay Area California
 
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pricestudent View Post

Still, I know this market is headed down and want to take advantage of it. ..


As a new trader there are a few things everyone learns.....

The first is, you dont know shit. The second you say you know something, your done for.

The market is likely to take your idea, and shove it down your throat.

If you still want to sell it, I would suggest two things:

1. wait for it to start failing. Large corrections don't happen over the course of 1 or 2 days, and there will be plenty of suckers picking bottoms saying its just a pullback to keep the trade pressed for a while.

2. Use an instrument with less leverage.



edit: didn't mean to sound rude, we all started somewhere.

double edit: also keep in mind that just cause the vix is grinding the bottom of the barrel doesn't mean price is coming down when volatility lifts.

.

Last edited by addchild; August 22nd, 2012 at 07:52 PM.
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  #5 (permalink)
Tampa, FL
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: 6E, M6E, 6J
 
Xav1029's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,374 since Dec 2011
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If I was a long term trader....

...I would look for the YM to break out of the 13100 - 13175 range to the downside. Entry would be a confirmed breakout below 13100, SL @ 13175, PT @ 12850...

but I'm not

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  #6 (permalink)
Spokane Valley, WA, USA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB, Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: IB/Kinetick
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 30 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 2 given, 5 received


addchild View Post
As a new trader there are a few things everyone learns.....

The first is, you dont know shit. The second you say you know something, your done for.

The market is likely to take your idea, and shove it down your throat.

If you still want to sell it, I would suggest two things:

1. wait for it to start failing. Large corrections don't happen over the course of 1 or 2 days, and there will be plenty of suckers picking bottoms saying its just a pullback to keep the trade pressed for a while.

2. Use an instrument with less leverage.



edit: didn't mean to sound rude, we all started somewhere.

double edit: also keep in mind that just cause the vix is grinding the bottom of the barrel doesn't mean price is coming down when volatility lifts.

I stopped taking comments personally a long time ago. No offense taken whatsoever. If I don't ask if people do something, I will never know.

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  #7 (permalink)
australia
 
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I personally find that its rather dangerous to take a short position using futures in the current situation unless you have deep pocket.

It had been easy money for the past few weeks just to run the stops of weak shorts on intraday trades.

If you are convinced the Dow would go down from here, why not use a short ETF or options instead of YM?

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