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ES Unfair Advantage
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ES Unfair Advantage

  #11 (permalink)
Toronto, Canada
 
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dario1 View Post
The evening ES market (roughly until 20:00) is usually very slow(?)
true or false

Usually, yes. But, from the NY cash close, to here, it can easily move 3 points. Given some NY cash market days are a 6 point range, I guess it depends how you define slow, and what your patience level is.

Unless of course, it is one of those days where 1) the market is in earnings release mode, to react to exceeds or misses 2) JP Morgan announces a $2B bad trade [which moved ES 11 points from 4:05 to 5pm, and then more afterwards 3) any number of other unforecastable reasons



dario1 View Post
OK, so when HK market opens (I believe is 8:20PM -- correct me if I'm wrong) one can expect:
a) resumption of the overall day’s trend (NY session)
or
b) the counter move

I don't think anyone can answer that with certainty. Do recall that during the day ES moves in relation to the S&P 500 cash index, meaning the basket of stocks it is representing. During globex, they do not trade. So, ES moves in sympathy with global equity indexes, stocks, risk, and any other news related events, that the algo masters have programmed as part of the algo scan.

Coming up with a definitive answer to your question is impossible. Was the previous US session reacting to a bad Europe or Asia session? Are global markets in sync? Did Asia already react to the NY session? Were there news events between the NY close and Asian open? Where is ES in relation to the day's pivot, point, the VWAP, yesterday's VWAP, etc? Given AUDUSD and AUDJPY are usually tightly correlated to ES and US indexes, what about those spot currency movements? What did the big boys do on the ES 4pm close? Did they soak up supply and buy more? Are there rate decisions or other significant news items due from China/Australia/Japan, etc? (often @ 9:30pm EST) Why did you choose 8:xx pm (EST) as a turning point ? I actually find it a largely irrelevant time. (And I tend to trade Asia, lol) What about 9pm when the remainder of Asian markets open? What about the day of week factor? What if NFP is forthcoming from NY in the morning?

My point is, there are so many other factors, combined with the fact that the mothership to the ES is not trading, that asking this question and making predictions centered around a specific time, isn't really worth it. Sure, the exact answer to your question can be statistically determined, but, without trade context (and no insight into those other things i mentioned above) I would not find the data or answer meaningful. IMO, studying the chart(s), and having a decent (great) understanding of global intermarket relationships is more key.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Beljevina View Post
Usually, yes. But, from the NY cash close, to here, it can easily move 3 points. Given some NY cash market days are a 6 point range, I guess it depends how you define slow, and what your patience level is.

Unless of course, it is one of those days where 1) the market is in earnings release mode, to react to exceeds or misses 2) JP Morgan announces a $2B bad trade [which moved ES 11 points from 4:05 to 5pm, and then more afterwards 3) any number of other unforecastable reasons

I don't think anyone can answer that with certainty. Do recall that during the day ES moves in relation to the S&P 500 cash index, meaning the basket of stocks it is representing. During globex, they do not trade. So, ES moves in sympathy with global equity indexes, stocks, risk, and any other news related events, that the algo masters have programmed as part of the algo scan.

Coming up with a definitive answer to your question is impossible. Was the previous US session reacting to a bad Europe or Asia session? Are global markets in sync? Did Asia already react to the NY session? Were there news events between the NY close and Asian open? Where is ES in relation to the day's pivot, point, the VWAP, yesterday's VWAP, etc? Given AUDUSD and AUDJPY are usually tightly correlated to ES and US indexes, what about those spot currency movements? What did the big boys do on the ES 4pm close? Did they soak up supply and buy more? Are there rate decisions or other significant news items due from China/Australia/Japan, etc? (often @ 9:30pm EST) Why did you choose 8:xx pm (EST) as a turning point ? I actually find it a largely irrelevant time. (And I tend to trade Asia, lol) What about 9pm when the remainder of Asian markets open? What about the day of week factor? What if NFP is forthcoming from NY in the morning?

My point is, there are so many other factors, combined with the fact that the mothership to the ES is not trading, that asking this question and making predictions centered around a specific time, isn't really worth it. Sure, the exact answer to your question can be statistically determined, but, without trade context (and no insight into those other things i mentioned above) I would not find the data or answer meaningful. IMO, studying the chart(s), and having a decent (great) understanding of global intermarket relationships is more key.



I really enjoyed your answer. And yes as you've mentioned there are a lot of other factors. Regarding your question, I've traded gold during the evening hours and many times there was a correlation between HK open and Singapore open for example.
BTW, I don't expect much movement during the tonight session. I think the rage is already established between 1356 and 1360
thank you for your post.

 
  #13 (permalink)
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Long?


so far I'm long, but I'm kinda doubting myself now

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  #14 (permalink)
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Thinking Flat

This is a really nasty market tonight -- I don't think I've a stomach for this
-- oh maybe not --its movig in my direction


Last edited by dario1; July 2nd, 2012 at 09:33 PM. Reason: market change
 
  #15 (permalink)
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patience is the virtue

part of me want to exit and the other to stay until 1360

 
  #16 (permalink)
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  #17 (permalink)
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This thread is about the ES unfair advantage with the trade examples to convey the message

 
  #18 (permalink)
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The evening ES market is usually very slow


dario1 View Post
I don't expect much movement during the tonight session. I think the rage is already established between 1356 and 1360

I'm too tired to baby-sit this one-- taking 2pt profit though -- I was to greedy
But it has a potential to go to 1360+
good night

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  #19 (permalink)
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true or false

big overnight moves usually start after 3:00AM when Europe opens
true or false

-- closed overnight trade

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ES Unfair Advantage-untitled3.png  
 
  #20 (permalink)
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is ES on the move UP?


is ES turned upside?
-- after that reversal yesterday I think the upside is in play (I'm long)
but don’t follow me I lost a lot of money last year

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