Call me Ishmael. Some years ago--never mind how long precisely--having little or no money in my purse, and nothing particular to interest me on shore, I thought I would sail about a little and see the watery part of the world.
So begins Melville's classic Moby Dick, and so begins this journal. This is my attempt at becoming a discretionary trader. I previously traded under a very rules-based, more or less mechanical system with mixed results. Sometimes it worked beautifully, other times it was awful. Bottom line was that I couldn't stick with it. It just was not consistent enough.
I decided to set aside most of my trading money for other business ventures. (Something I've learned over the last few years of basically being break even--there are many other and better ways to make money than in trading.) The rest I'm going to keep in my account and see if I can make one last go of this. If I fail, that's probably it for me.
My method, if you can call it that, is a hodge-podge of things I've learned over the years in the markets, as well as what I've picked up from the more astute members of this forum. It can be distilled into these principals:
--There is a lot of random movement in the markets.
--Indicators are fairly useless, though reading price action can give some insight into short-term direction. Short-term to me is a few days to a couple weeks.
--You have to make decisions with a limited amount of information. There's a lot of fog here in trading, and if you wait for it to clear you're too late. I really can't stress this part enough. We all want comfort and security, but such things don't exist in trading. Markets exist for the few to take from the many. The many wait for confirmation. This is what I've done, this is why I'm one of the many. I have to start thinking differently.
--Call it bias, thesis, conviction, whatever you want. Do your analysis, pick a side, and go with it. But then...try to prove yourself wrong. If you're long, always be looking at the price action and ask if there are reasons to be short or go flat (this is based on your particular time frame and risk tolerance). Do it before the market does. Stay a step ahead of the herd.
--It really is all about support and resistance. Find these areas to trade off and you'll find the money.
This shit is hard, people. If it was easy more folks would be doing it. And like other high-level disciplines, the ones who do it well make it look easy. But it's not.