Well, here I go. I have never published anything related to my trading and am very hesitant to put myself out there. After joining a few days ago, I am convinced this is something I need to do in order to improve my trading.
I will post my weekend outlook and analysis followed by daily action plan and review. I am only able to trade futures in pre-market and first hour or so of RTH. I track performance based on entry/exit discipline using pareto analysis.
- 9/18/2016 5:46 AM Weekend review and analysis - I have screenshots in my desktop journal for these, but no need to upload since we can all see the charts.
Monthly pullback in uptrend after putting in new ATH.
Weekly possible reversal bar after pullback, still in uptrend but will need to have a higher high to confirm, although 1 bar doesn't mean a whole lot.
Daily uptrend moved into range after breaking down from consolidation new ATH
Healthy pullback in uptrend, but consolidation in the lower half of the breakdown bar is interesting.
Outside day (9/15) followed by inside day (9/16) tells me there is indecision. This could be due to the expirations on 9/16.
- Outlook and expectation for Next week 9/19- 9/23.
I expect to have small ranges through Wednesday with the FOMC meeting. From there, I will watch the price to tell me what to do. If we can take out last weeks high, I will expect it to at least test ATH. If we break below 2100, I am looking for 2050 then on down to 2000 quickly. One thing to be mindful of is that we could get a strong rally into Wednesday as traders place their bets. I will still focus each day by determining the bias of the o/n action and watching volume coming into the cash open.
Hourly Chart Interesting pattern forming almost a wedge bottom. Hourly is in down trend, but has put in a higher high. If the last swing high is taken out, this would change my view to uptrend. Right now, just sideways consolidation (inside day).
- Daily Market Prep 9/19/2016 4:26 AM
Looking at the overnight action, there was a spike with volume at 5:30PM MST. The market traded up to the down-sloping trend line then consolidated through it and just below the previous swing high.
-For today, I have a bullish bias, but fully expect range day.
If we can break above 44.50, I would expect a move to test the 50-55 area, this would likely be a bull leg in range.
With a break back through to test the ETH low at 30-32 area, I would look for this to be the bear leg in range.
With breaks above or below those key areas, we could have a trend day.
-Trading Plan:
The ETH range was large enough to trade if we can test the high or low, I will look to take trades based on reversal signals (signal bar followed by trigger), major trend reversals, pullback test of low, pullback in channel. I still need a min of 2 converging reasons to take the trade, such as zone, channel, VWAP or HVN. No trading allowed before 6:35AM MST (this is due to experience of having a lot of losses during this time in the past).
Min target is 1:1 Risk reward based on entry and signal bar.
Second target is 2:1
Weakness - Exiting too early, working to let second contract swing.