I’ve been studying various resources on Statistics and Frequency Distributions so that I can begin to understand feasibility of the following system.
One of my best resources to date is this article from Investopedia:
Hypothesis Testing in Finance: Concept & Examples | Investopedia (
and this thread with Trade System Development flow chart from SodyTexas:
ideas and modifications from gregid in this thread:
I’m trying to set up this study with such things as Null Hypothesis, Alternative Hypothesis, etc. but this is all new to me and I need some help if I’m on the right track or missing anything. Any and all suggestions or links to articles are welcome. I don’t want to get too deep in this study but rather to get some logical and common sense conclusions to be able to trade this way with confidence.
Instrument: CL
Chart Period: 5 min.
Size of Sample: at least 300 days
Opening Range: Max High, Min Low 9:00 to 9:40
HMA 7 and HMA34
See screenshot.
I want to set Hypothesis regarding # of ticks possible for move through the black dash-dot line when the HMAs are pointing in the correct direction and the HMA7 is above the HMA34 and the HMA34 is still rising.
I know how to get the data and use Excel to setup the frequency distribution to show potential gains in # of ticks. I found the ExportData.cs from MXASJ and the Export.cs from baruchs. These allow me to get the OHLC data as well as the HMA7 and HMA34 data so I can sort the instances in Excel and bring to the Freq. Dist.
What I don’t know is how to Analyze the data and create “statements” for being able to trade this system with confidence. I hope this makes sense. If not, I’ll try to explain more in a future post.