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Waves and the Dollar
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Waves and the Dollar

  #1 (permalink)
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Waves and the Dollar

I'm using waves to try and shed some light on where the dollar is heading. I used the primary support level of a 28 year chart of the dollar as the foundation of the wave. It's amazing how they can hit on important levels each time. Comparing the waves to the TRIX indicator shows that the waves often LEAD the TRIX.

Here are some observations, but please tell if you notice anything else, particularly what the implications are for a symmetrical triangle forming with its median point being the historical support level.

It will be easier to print the picture out or copy and paste the notes to another sheet to look at the picture separately. You will also need a ruler if you want to check my levels.

After Wave 18 marked the first time that the major support level of the last 20 years became the MAJOR RESISTANCE LEVEL.

What will wave 19 signify?

Starting with the lower wave in 1985.

Lower Wave 1: Marks the top of the dollar value

Upper Wave 2: Marks the top resistance level the dollar will have for the next 13 years

Lower Wave 3: Marks the pivot level for the dollar over the next 9 years, the support level after it broke out the next year, and the top resistance level from 2004 on

Upper Wave 4: Marks the resistance level over the next 11 years and the failed support level for the dollar in 2002

Lower Wave 5: Marks the major support level on this chart

Upper Wave 6: Marks the major support level on this chart

Lower Wave 7: Marked the current resistance level at that time which became the support level in 1999

Upper Wave 8: Marks the major support level on this chart

Lower Wave 9: Marks the change from resistance level to support level

Upper Wave 10: Marks the change from resistance level to support level until 2002

Lower Wave 11: Marks the brake out from resistance level to support level until 2002

Upper Wave 12: Marks the neckline creation of the head and shoulders pattern that is about to fall

Lower Wave 13: Marks the change from back to from resistance level from support level

Upper Wave 14: Marks the level that will go on to be the top resistance level from 2009

Lower Wave 15: Marks the level that will go on to be the top resistance level from 2009

Upper Wave 16: Marks the breakthrough of the 20+ year support level

Lower Wave 17: Marks the top resistance level going forward

Upper Wave 18: Marks the break down of the support level, positioned between the 4th and 5th point of the symmetrical triangle

Attached Thumbnails
Waves and the Dollar-1.5-year-dollar-cycle.png  
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I don't trade based on waves - was just using them to try and better forcast for the longer term. Charles Nenner does trade on them and uses over two hundred such indicators.

I trade trendlines, S/R and basic chart patterns. I always look back to where there was resistance to see if it will become support (in 6 hour, 1 hour, 15 min, 5 min charts) in an up market.

Take care.

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