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Short JPY
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Short JPY

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Short JPY

I had read some recommendations on shorting yen at this point of time. JPY will be declining for an extended period of time - 1-2 years. What do you guys think?

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  #2 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Might be late to that party . Maybe see what happens at resistance here .

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  #3 (permalink)
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Eric j View Post
Might be late to that party . Maybe see what happens at resistance here .


Eric, I'm actually looking at holding the short for a longer term - months. The reason for the short is more on a fundamental basis. Japanese equities are getting attractive for funds, in general when Japanese equities goes up, JPY goes down. I am also thinking of taking a long position in the nikkei.

Do you think this is workable or should I wait till USD/JPY break the resistance?

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  #4 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Im a technicals guy . If you waited until the reistance area was tested on the monthly before going short you will be in a better position to hold on for a longer term trade . If you short before any test then the chances of the trade going against you up to the reistance level and taking undo heat would be likely . Its how probabilities play out and on a monthly chart the supply area is clear , longs that are waiting to break even may sell if price moves up triggering a downmove .

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If you are putting on a position with a term of months, you should scale in. So whether you start today or wait is based on your methodology, but I would say an example is to buy 1/3rd today, then another 1/3rd when the market has moved 5% (either with or against you), and so on... adjust the numbers to fit your comfort and trading style.

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jonc View Post
I had read some recommendations on shorting yen at this point of time. JPY will be declining for an extended period of time - 1-2 years. What do you guys think?

Did you ever take that short jonc?

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  #7 (permalink)
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I would just like to add that you don't know how high the price will be before a significant pullback occurs. (Meaning how low the Yen will be). For this reason, Big Mike's approach makes the most sense; but you will still need a strategy for getting in when the Yen begins to fall again. What criteria will you use to determine that the long term trend has resumed? You may also want to diversify your exposure. Not all currency pairs are the same strength against the Yen. You can spread your risk among the major pairs. (e.g. USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY) You also have to consider that not all pairs have the same volatility against the Yen. For example, the GBP/JPY is the most volatile. The USD/JPY is the least volatile. Finally, you need to consider how long this global upturn and risk appetite will last. Even a buy and hold strategy needs to consider several variables. Warren Buffet is a buy and hold guy, but he doesn't buy blindly. Hope this helps. Happy trading!

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I believe that the USDJPY cycle that is dominant right now is clearly exhibited in the chart. The analysis needs to consider that the USDJPY is in a supertrend at the moment and that caution is good here. For one, the forex pair should be sold short. My plan has caused me to go short already. And Im not trying to pick tops here, Im just following the system. Hurst cycles analysis when done right is effective at showing when to take a trade. Currently, the 20 Day FLD has been broken to the downside and I am short.

More on my Blog.

And Heres my chart BirdJaguar

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  #9 (permalink)
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I have tried to attach a chart which goes back to the financial crisis of 2008. You will notice significant support and resistance lines near 100 and near 110 in the USDJPY. These are certainly not out of the picture if the global economy picks up steam; in other words, if risk continues to come into the market. This risk can be gauged by the other pairs I mentioned, but especially GBPJPY. Upside risk will include an increase in interest rates which will be reflected in the bond market and will push USDJPY higher. With that said, however, a return to the 86 level in USDJPY is certainly not farfetched even if the longer term move is up. I agree with you that the 94 level in USDJPY may offer strong resistance, but I would be careful with expecting the move to fall below 84. A move below this level would confirm your analysis. Until then, however, the longer term trend suggests an upward bias. By the way, please pardon my ignorance, but what is an FLD?

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An FLD is a Future Line of Demarcation


JM Hurst gave two cyclic tools to use as action signals to base entering trades on. FLDs are moving averages of price projected forward one half cycle. The cyclic elements that are present are constantly varying but can be narrowed down to nominal models that are in fact present throughout all instruments. The one I trade is the 20 day FLD, it is referenced with 8 interactions with price that help the trader to base accurate and repeatable entries off of. Hurst methods are complex and there is a 1110 page course that he used to teach this method.

Now, the FLD strategy is excellent in that when price crosses the 20 Day FLD in the time and price area it has, then a peak (when using an inverted analysis such as this pair) is confirmed.

Please look at my chart to see that the 20 Day FLD (purple) is crossed. This provides objective evidence that a 20 day peak is in. It is an action signal as well. Price crosses to the downside, I short. The fact that Sentient Trader is showing that this is a 40 week peak means I'm looking hard at short entries.

Im short this instrument. The targets are shown on my blog's uploaded chart. Please feel free to PM me later if you're interested in Hurst, its hard to find folks interested in him due to the complexity of this method.
Thanks BirdJaguar

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