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Is this strategy good enough?
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Created: by baruchs Attachments:6

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Is this strategy good enough?

  #51 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
1 more!... I am prepared to have my mind blown!

me too monpere...haven't had mine blown in a while...

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  #52 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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monpere View Post
1 more!... I am prepared to have my mind blown!

7+ years worth of posts in various trading forums... and the only thing blowing around here is our accounts

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  #53 (permalink)
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baruchs View Post
Well its a wrong answer, sorry. This result is not possible!
But you tried and that counts for something. After I get 4 more answers I'll reveal the actual results.
I'm not playing, its basic understanding about trading. I don't understand how people can try being traders without understanding some basics.

You might very well be a better trader than me, most people on this board probably are, but you don't seem to understand the importance of statistics. Things like sharpe ratio matter. And there are other statistics that can give insight into the merits of your system. This series meets the only criteria you've been willing to give, profit of $5K and max drawdown of $1.8K. Does it look to you like it represents a valuable system you could trust going forward?

 
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Last edited by fluxsmith; February 10th, 2011 at 11:25 AM.
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  #54 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Does it look to you like it represents a valuable system you could trust going forward?

No its not. But again you miss my point. For what I want to present I gave enough information. Why don't you answer my question? You may win a bear.
Do you say that to answer my question you need more info?

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  #55 (permalink)
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Bear... I thought we were shooting for a beer!!!

I hereby withdraw my answer

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  #56 (permalink)
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baruchs View Post
No its not. But again you miss my point. For what I want to present I gave enough information. Why don't you answer my question? You may win a bear.
Do you say that to answer my question you need more info?

I want my Bear!

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  #57 (permalink)
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MWinfrey View Post
me too monpere...haven't had mine blown in a while...

Me neither... oh, wait... you were referring to your mind weren't you ...


Slack View Post
Bear... I thought we were shooting for a beer!!!

I hereby withdraw my answer

You weren't paying attention ... see post # 38...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #58 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
Me neither... oh, wait... you were referring to your mind weren't you ...



You weren't paying attention ... see post # 38...

I just thought that was a picture of 3 really drunks guys in bear suits

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  #59 (permalink)
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baruchs View Post
Well its a wrong answer, sorry. This result is not possible!
But you tried and that counts for something. After I get 4 more answers I'll reveal the actual results.
I'm not playing, its basic understanding about trading. I don't understand how people can try being traders without understanding some basics.

On highly correlated instrument NP range would possibly be 3500 - 6500 with DD 1000 - 2000

On non-correlated instruments the NP would be infinite to $0 in your account .. DD would be irrelevant at $0 in account or infinite/n-1 for the worlds richest trader

LOL

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  #60 (permalink)
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MetalTrade View Post
Backtesting is one of the biggest myths in our business. I never believed in it.

Forward testing is the only way to go.

I'm surprised we don't see more discussion about this. The metrics on the last 50 trades of a system that takes multiple trades a day would be far more valuable than backtest going back to 1999 that includes the dotcom bust, the crisis..stuff that you can't reasonably assume going forward. If anything if the system performed great over the crash you should be biased to NOT trade it as it is almost a certainty we will not see that level of volatility any time soon.
On the original system buying 25k worth of SPY on sept 1st and holding until now would have given practically the same thing as mentioned. That is why it is not enough information to base things off.
Sharpe ratio is totally overblown IMO too. Viewing historic data as if regimes don't change is just bizarre and not very logical.
If you have two systems that both made an equal profit the last 6 months, however one took 80% shorts and one took 80% longs..the one that took 80% shorts is VASTLY more impressive and has a much higher chance that it is actually exploiting some kind of market inefficiency. That would not be reflected in common metrics though.

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