The problem with that strategy is that 7 is the most likely result of each shooters come out roll. Unfortunately, 7 on a shooters initial roll will beat your don't pass bet. Bottom line, you will neither make friends nor make money over time with this casino strategy.
Don't be mad that you didn't get the answer you were looking for. If you were looking for people just to say yes (and that's what it sounds like you were doing) then what's the point? Fundamentally it just seems like you were looking for people to tell you "OH RLY - WHAT A STRAT - LOOKS LIKE WE GOT OURSELVES A DAVID TEPPER HERE" to give that little bit of validation for your strategy.
Past performance means nothing - I mean I was an awesome little league player, but doubt i'd succeed in the MLB. Maybe if i played for the Tigers.
Last edited by inimical; February 11th, 2011 at 07:45 PM.
Beware of strangers bearing NinjaTrader backtests. There are well know issues about the optimistic fill approach of the default NT backtest code. That's why many rosy NT backtested strategies end up crashing and burning live. There are various threads on this forum discussing the subject at length. In order to get around that, your backtest should be coded as a multi series strategy, with your trade management taking place in a secondary bar series of period 1 tick or 1 range.
The following user says Thank You to monpere for this post:
Again I'm very disappointed that no one even tried to answer my question.
There are so many brilliant brains on this forum, so many innovative thoughts.
Only in this thread I learn so much.
Before I didn't understand why people are so exited about "bear markets" I thought they were talking about "beer".
I also learn that you can not write a good strategy without good sharp ratio (c sharp in short) and without good profit factor (profits in short).
The knowledge that a coin toss is not 50/50 will transform me from a losing trader to very profitable one.
The question now is: Do you want to answer my question and me continue with the explanation or you want to continue throwing useless information and then it will be without me?
I've found some of your posts in this thread very interesting and they get people thinking about important factors in trading, good job. But I think you need to lighten up just a bit, people are having difficulty conforming to what you are demanding or expecting of them because they feel you are being too rigid. Give them a bit of slack and don't demean them, just find a new way to relate to them -- they are engaging you, they are replying, they want to learn what you are willing to teach, why not help them instead of demean them?
I think it relates to the problems you are experiencing getting people to give you the answers you are expecting in this thread. You are disappointed people are answering the way they are, so try to open up a bit more, give them some of the information they are asking for, try to understand why they are asking for it --- even if you think they are wrong --- and then this entire discussion can continue to everyones benefit.
On a side note: You've been a member on futures.io (formerly BMT) since the very beginning - June 2009, yet you've only "Thanked" 1 post. Why is that? Only 1 post out of everything you've read on futures.io (formerly BMT) has been useful to you? I can't imagine this is true, if it was then why would you still be here. Try to respect the time and efforts of where other people are coming from and I think they will do the same for you.
Hope you have a good weekend!
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
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The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
First I want to thank you Mike that you didn't delete this post as you did before. I mean it. Not sarcasm.
Now for me getting anything from this forum, I'm hopeful that it will happen. I gave only 1 genuine thanks, because although I read most of the posts and follow this forum for a long time I didn't learn anything new yet.
Actually on my threads I tried to provoke people to think and I hoped to get some innovated responses, but it didn't happen.
If some one wants to take a shot on my threads 1.5 years ago, please do.
For the questions I ask, if I get clarification questions or a request for the solution I do it. Although what I wanted to achieve is for people to come to the conclusions them self. This way they will know its true. They said it!
But because there are destructive responses on this thread I respond like in the previos post.
I'm not selling that I'm a nicest person.
I tried to answer your question in post 106; didn't get a reply to that post. Or maybe I was answering the wrong question.
The question you posed was:
Lets look into another example:
you have two strategies:
1. NP=40K DD=6K
2. NP=10K DD=1k
Which is better? If you can prove it I'll be very impressed.
If this is the specific question you want answered -- which of 1 or 2 is better -- then I have some clarifying questions. How much capital is necessary to trade each? Is it the same amount of capital or does strat 2 tie up less capital? Also, is leverage an option -- i.e., could I lever up strategy 2 with 4 times as much trading power so that NP of that strat is 40K and equivalent to NP of strat 1?
If not, and if the same amount of capital is involved in both strats, then strat 1 is better, because it results in a larger percentage return. The assumption that the max DD will be 6K has already dictated that you won't bust your account with either strategy, assuming you start with more than 6K of capital, so the rational trader would obviously prefer to gain 40K trading strat 1 rather than gain only 10K trading strat 2.
Come on man, relax! I actually think your question is very thought provoking. It's obvious you have ideas that may not be mainstream, because you may think at a different level or different plane then most people do. Some may think your views as radical and dismiss them because they may not understand them, or because they view them as going against convential wisdom. But it always takes one radical to change the views of conventional wisdom. Without radical thinkers like that, we would still be thinking if we walk long enough we would eventually fall off the edge of the earth
So please go on, and challenge conventional wisdom, you might just open up a whole new way for us to view things.
PS. I wrote the post about NT backtesting. My point was to educate people about how to properly get accurate results from NT backtesting. I admit that I often have a sarcastic undertone in my posts, sorry about that
Well I didn't think I needed to add more inputs to my question. You see me, you and maybe 99% of traders on this forum are day traders. I'm not asking something and not telling the whole story just so the answers will be wrong.
Your answer has some seeds of correct thought process, but some conclusions are not correct.
I didn't say how many contracts were traded, because its irrelevant. Most of us have accounts to trade more then one contract, but we don't do it. But if I would estimate how much money needed to trade each strategy my answer would be: Start #1 at least 6500$ and strat #2 1500K. This is assuming that the daily margin for one contract is 500$.
So the answer to your question is of course you can trade more.
OK I'll accept your answer that strategy #2 is better. The proper explanation is:
if you trade the second strategy with 6 times more contracts the result will be : NP=60K DD=6K.
Fist I want to state that I'm glad that nobody said that both strategies are profitable and I wanted to prove that its better to add a losing strategy to the basket.
OK, now I need to confess, I made a "mistake". The Truth is the what I call strategy #2 is not really a strategy, but a basket of two strategies. The first strategy in that basket is strategy #1.
What are NP and DD of a second strategy in that basket?
Please don't think about capital, sharpe ratio or any thing else. You have all the data for an answer.