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6E rookie - advice and encouragement welcome
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6E rookie - advice and encouragement welcome

  #11 (permalink)
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Please post some charts of your trades so we can look at your entries and exits.


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  #12 (permalink)
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baron193 View Post

Yes it is the obvious that i fail to follow occasionally , instead i make the simple complex and that is what bites more often than not.
Take the simple and obvious i think, and let the price show you when it is time to enter/exit/reverse.

It is amazing how difficult it is to overcome my short term bias, and recognize the market is going the opposite way.
I think many of us are the same.
i guess that is why i use indicators, it is harder to ignore an "obvious" change in an indicator. of course it is easy to say "it is just a quick spike back" instead of admit the market has changed direction. so they are no panacea.
If i can just identify when the trade is going against me, and exit early, i will be successful in the long term.
I chose a jackrabbit for my picture, not just because they are in my yard. But because I should trade like they live. At the first hint of danger, they run away. They don't think about it--they are gone. Of course sometimes they run down the middle of the road! Is that another lesson for me? LOL.


Last edited by trvlntrdr; November 27th, 2017 at 11:11 PM.
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  #13 (permalink)
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well lets look at the latest daily candle, a KR, so bearish short term on a bullish medium term.
The simple approach, bearish trades already offered on the one minute chart.
Failed push for a breakout around the 1.1908 (spot).

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  #14 (permalink)
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Ok as we have moved on a bit now, still on the one minute chart where without any doubt would you have gone: short, long and then short again ?
All very simple, no need to use the brain too much, just using the fundamentals of what price has to do to be deemed bullish or bearish (in the context of that one minute chart)

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  #15 (permalink)
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baron193 View Post
Ok as we have moved on a bit now, still on the one minute chart where without any doubt would you have gone: short, long and then short again ?

All very simple, no need to use the brain too much, just using the fundamentals of what price has to do to be deemed bullish or bearish (in the context of that one minute chart)



Can you show this on a chart?


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  #16 (permalink)
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rassi View Post
Can you show this on a chart?


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Hi there Rassi, can but will refrain from being too specific as i prefer to keep some of my tools in my pocket.
On a day where i anticipate the instrument traded will trend to roughly a 1:1 daily range in a given direction
i will enter on the one minute on multiple lots on a retrace then take some off at key points and bring stops to BE to (let them run) and will get stopped out often.
The basic fundamentals of price means it has to make HH's or LL's or it will fake BO at certain points.
I think too many traders forget that and get tangled in complicated methods.
The question is when is it going to trend or range, knowing that would make a big difference to ones trading.
Obviously trading isn't simple but the basics still work and always will IMHO.

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  #17 (permalink)
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5 min chart of EUR/USD spot because i can't fit the whole 1 min price action.
The thicker red line is the previous day low.

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  #18 (permalink)
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pihadave View Post
Hi all,

I'm new to futuresIO so apologies for another newbie thread and apologies if it's in the wrong place.

I have ~4-5 years experience trading stocks and CFDs and I've recently switched to futures as I like the idea of a centralised exchange and order flow etc.

I originally got into the financial markets when I bought my first stock and have literally studied every single day (no joke) trying to learn how to trade. The goal was never to get rich overnight but rather build my account exponentially and eventually trade full-time.

Previous trading strategies
Stocks - primarily fundamental with technical for entry. I've got a great success rate but it's more "value investing" so is incredibly boring. And, unlike Warren Buffett, I don't have millions in the bank so started trading CFDs as the market is open 24/5..
CFDs - mainly technical - patterns, trend lines, support and resistance, candlestick patterns. Haven't been overly successful as I found currencies are a lot harder to swing trade.

Current 6E strategy
I've become so lost trying to find a futures strategy that works for me. I'm currently using range bars (6) HLC, time and sales, 10&30 EMAs and (attempting) to learn order flow. My broker (sim account) is Ninjatrader.

I tend to steer away from indicators as I prefer to 'read' the price action rather than wait for lagging indicators for confirmation.

Why 6E
I live in New Zealand so that means the USA opens at 2am my time, but the good news is that London opens at 8-9pm my time so I can trade at night without affecting my day job. This is what drew me towards 6E as there's literally zero volatility during my day-time.

My goal
As stated earlier, to grow an account exponentially. As I get better and more profitable, I'll add more money to the account and increase position size etc etc.

Performance so far
Shocking. I'll wait for a pullback, look at the T&S and it's as though 6E waits for my position then literally soars the opposite direction. It will crawl when I'm right and I'll get a tiny profit, but when I'm wrong it absolutely takes off. Thank goodness for demo accounts.

Questions to profitable and preferably full-time 6E traders
Do you have any advice for trading 6E? I would prefer to work out my own strategy rather than copy someone elses but perhaps you could help with these questions:
What works?
What doesn't work?
Any tricks or tips - i.e, "tends to respect S/R", "use level 2", "is good range-bound", "look at long-term" etc.
What sort of charts are best? – Volume? Tick? Range? Standard candle? (With CFDs I used standard MT4 timed-charts but NinjaTrader offers a range off different types but I still haven't been able to find one that 'feels right').
Any indicators that are great for 6e?

Conclusion
I'm 100% dedicated to learn to trade futures. I don't like watching videos of these 'teachers' as I figure "those who know how to trade, trade. Those who can't, teach".

It's a dream to have a mentor but perhaps I could build a relationship with someone already profitable who can answer questions along my journey - not every day, but perhaps every few weeks / once or twice a month.

Thanks in advance,

Dave from down-under

Please see the thread that I started (no I'm not trying to hijack this one) called "Spot forex institutional volume timing-morning session." It goes some way to explaining why trading currencies, or currency futures can be tough. The siren lure of all that price action on the eurusd can be bewitching, but the reality is that trading an instrument that has more strict opening times, when you know heavy volume is flowing into the market, is a far better market to trade.
If you do insist on trading the 6E then be aware that price action and volume are VERY different throughout the day. Does Support/Resistance or a swing high/low have the same significance if it is made at 11.30am or 8.30am? If your set up occurs at 8.45am, does it have different characteristics to one that occurs at 11.45am. The answer to these questions are : Yes, they are different for the reasons described in the thread I just gave you. And the second answer is "well, they might have the same characteristics actually" because in currency futures you have no idea what the real volume is because they follow the mother currency-spot eurusd. No one knows what the volume of buy/sell orders are on this currency, although you will note that someone on my thread does mention a possible solution to this.

To illustrate the point, the spot gold price is totally controlled by the contract heavy gold futures market where more gold that exists in the world is traded many times over in the futures market. The opposite is true of Eurusd, many more billions are traded on the spot market, so it is questionable how much info the futures market can give you regarding where real buying/selling interest lies. How do you know that a swing high made at 3am UK time didn't actually have HUGE volume taking place on spot eurusd? Answer-you don't. This is why index trading is better IMO (and share trading too). You know when volume flow is heaviest (8-9am) so any Support/Resistance during this time holds far more weight. This then diminishes as time moves on and the market tends to change character from 10am onwards. This is extremely helpful info to have. Is this the case for spot eur/usd? Who knows.

This idea is developed within volume profile, where three types of trader are identified in terms of importance and volume-the Big boys, the market makers, and the normal traders like us. The Big Boys do their trading (mainly) early on when you get your quick moves around the open, and up to 9-9.30am with support/resistance in this time period being very important. Things tend to slack off but can still be active up until 11am ish. And then it becomes a bunfight as the big boys have pretty much left and price just gets pushed around, almost at random. I would guess that it is these quieter periods, where volume and S/R are harder to read, is where a lot of traders give up their gains as set ups are far less likely to work, same with the S/R levels that are made. What can happen, which is what happened with the Dax today, is you get the quick move in the first hour, and then price consolidates and gradually grinds up, gradually beating the heavy sellers that are still positioned in the market which you can see from the open price and the swing lower that occurred in the heavy volume opening period. This lead to stops being triggered at various levels, which then drives price higher. The open price and the top of any beaten swing from early volume are HUGE S/R levels. Everything else is far more confusing and harder to read.

It's very tempting to trade from 11am-1pm UK time but I would advise keeping a journal to see if you're getting killed during these times. I'm guessing you will be.
What I would suggest is marking the open price, making a box around the first decent swing of the day after 8am, and then using these levels, as well as any smaller levels on the 1m chart (if more short term) as your key levels. See how you do. Note that price moves a lot quicker early on near the open. The note how you trade around 11am-1pm UK time before the US market opens. Also, note what happens to price when it beats that early morning swing, and beats the open. More often than not if the open price and initial swing gets well beaten, price will retrace back down/up, and the open price is an excellent support/resistance level.

I should add that I would guess that what I said about heavy 8am-9am volume, or swings made during that time, holds true on the EURusd rather than on the Dax/stocks. But I just don't know. Only institutional investors know.


Last edited by Keab; December 4th, 2017 at 09:10 AM. Reason: more info
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  #19 (permalink)
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Central Banks (CB's)

Considering central banks have the biggest influence on the currency market, you should be considering monetary policy first and foremost Dave.
6E = EUR/USD
So if you are trading 6E, then you must monitor both central banks (ECB and the Fed) and both economies.
If you plan on trading FX G10, then your work will increase exponentially.
I would also be considering the rate market (DE02Y/US02Y and DE10Y/US10Y yield spreads).

I am guessing Dave you have never read a central bank statement or the meeting minutes? What about the contents of central bank speeches hitting the wires?
The biggest players (real money) in the market are extremely interested in the central banks (CB's).
Since these bigger players are shifting billions, it would be prudent to consider what they are considering.

Central bank policy (depending on economic conditions) will create 'drift/skew' in the rate over time.
To illustrate what I mean here consider EUR/CHF (or for the futures trader 6E/6S).
Why has that been going up Dave?
Those who know how to trade will not be going to the charts right now to check. They will know what has been driving the rate higher.
All the chart will tell you is that it has been going up and the move higher has been strong.


Quoting 
I tend to steer away from indicators as I prefer to 'read' the price action rather than wait for lagging indicators for confirmation.

Unfortunately, price action is also lagging.
Fluid price movement should only be used for a read of performance on instrument/asset and confirmation that you have indeed read financial and market conditions correctly. Price is history, historical prints.

The idea is to work out what would drive the market through a spread of prices, either higher or lower, from the present mark.
By trading this way you are trading FORWARD.

The lack of doing the above IMHO is the reason why the majority of retail traders fail.
Retail traders are mostly BACKWARD looking.

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  #20 (permalink)
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kellys View Post
Considering central banks have the biggest influence on the currency market, you should be considering monetary policy first and foremost Dave.
6E = EUR/USD
So if you are trading 6E, then you must monitor both central banks (ECB and the Fed) and both economies.
If you plan on trading FX G10, then your work will increase exponentially.
I would also be considering the rate market (DE02Y/US02Y and DE10Y/US10Y yield spreads).

I am guessing Dave you have never read a central bank statement or the meeting minutes? What about the contents of central bank speeches hitting the wires?
The biggest players (real money) in the market are extremely interested in the central banks (CB's).
Since these bigger players are shifting billions, it would be prudent to consider what they are considering.

Central bank policy (depending on economic conditions) will create 'drift/skew' in the rate over time.
To illustrate what I mean here consider EUR/CHF (or for the futures trader 6E/6S).
Why has that been going up Dave?
Those who know how to trade will not be going to the charts right now to check. They will know what has been driving the rate higher.
All the chart will tell you is that it has been going up and the move higher has been strong.


Unfortunately, price action is also lagging.
Fluid price movement should only be used for a read of performance on instrument/asset and confirmation that you have indeed read financial and market conditions correctly. Price is history, historical prints.

The idea is to work out what would drive the market through a spread of prices, either higher or lower, from the present mark.
By trading this way you are trading FORWARD.

The lack of doing the above IMHO is the reason why the majority of retail traders fail.
Retail traders are mostly BACKWARD looking.

This is a great reply and makes lots of sense.

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