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China's economic slowdown and unprecedented devaluation of Yuan
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China's economic slowdown and unprecedented devaluation of Yuan

  #51 (permalink)
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Gentlemen,

I am on the opposite end of this discussion....I believe the Yuan devaluation will temporarily slow the US economy but considering the GDP and expansion is solid (2% - 2.3%), this will be true in one year from this day while covering economics as part of my daily analytics.

US Equities will not be as affected and will continue a growth pattern in and through the next administration. Besides a currency war underway. the Chinese are quite aware of the effects overall upon foreign exchange instruments, Oil, Latin America spiral, Asia Minor comes under pressure, interest rate effect: Not lowered or remaining the same.

Volatility on major pairs has varied on across economies depending on geography, domestic capabilities, and trade dependence. (China)

Global ETFs between the close of August 7 and August 21, the iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) fell by 6.60%, WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), which encompasses not only developed economies but also emerging market currencies, dropped by 1.11%.

American deposit receipts (ADRs); Global trading between August 7 - 21 ended to the negative; Exxon Mobil (XOM) reduced value -6.11%; Sony (SNE) reduced value -8.64%; BHP Billiton (BHP) reduced value -10.24% during the same period.

Swedish Krona increase value 4.71% on a cumulative basis, supported by Government increased growth estimates.

Statistics and I can go on for hours.....I am still on the opposite side although the statistics support near term reduced value in US Equities, we must always look at national consumption, GDP, Construction permits, and real money gaming (casinos, horse tracks, other), this is also an indicator whether real money is still being spent.

Have a good weekend and I shall start communicating more on this forum....I have been very busy this week, in fact, I just returned from Chicago yesterday. I visit my brokers four times a year. He has a beautiful old expresso machine in his office, impressive.


Last edited by gregoryalexandr; August 28th, 2015 at 07:31 PM. Reason: I did not finish my thought and time conflict.
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  #52 (permalink)
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@TabbFORUM: NEWS: Why is China finding it hard to fight the markets? (Bruegel) http://tinyurl.com/q5cbrq6

https://twitter.com/TabbFORUM/status/638435463783677952

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  #53 (permalink)
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BlackRock's Fink advises Chinese govt: Sources | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance

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Bank of America's Woo Says Chinese Yuan May Drop 10 Percent - Bloomberg Business

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To put the Yuan and the new international trade agreement into perspective, this quote from seekingAlpha.com morning review 10/5/2015 is interesting:

Despite the financial turmoil in China and unexpected devaluation, the yuan has now become the world's fourth-most-used payments currency, edging out Japan's yen for the spot. According to international payments provider Swift, the renminbi accounted for 2.79% of global payments in value terms in August, up from 2.34% in July, although it still trailed the U.S. dollar (44.8%), euro (27.2%) and British pound (8.5%). As recently as August 2012, the yuan only ranked number 12 with a 0.84% share, but Chinese authorities have since aggressively promoted international use of the currency.

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From seekingalpha.com morning review 10/6/2015:
"China's foreign exchange reserves posted their largest quarterly decline on record in July-September, as the central bank intervened to stabilize the yuan after its unexpected devaluation jolted global markets. The country's foreign reserves, the world's largest, dropped $43.3B to $3.514T last month (the lowest since July 2013), and were down by about $180B for the third quarter. "

China's reserves are mostly US treasury bonds.
During last QE3, US federal reserve was buying 80 billion per month US treasury bonds.
Within the period July to September ES fell a maxima of 292 points.
During this period, Europe and Japan had QE programs, and a proposed rise of US interest Fed funds rates loomed.

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For lack of a better place to put this

IMF Approves Reserve-Currency Status for China's Yuan - Bloomberg Business


Quoting 
The IMF will add the yuan to its basket of reserve currencies, an international stamp of approval of the strides China has made integrating into a global economic system dominated for decades by the U.S., Europe and Japan.
The International Monetary Fundís executive board, which represents the fundís 188 member nations, decided the yuan meets the standard of being ďfreely usableĒ and will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in its Special Drawing Rights basket, the organization said Monday in a statement. Approval was expected after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde announced Nov. 13 that her staff recommended inclusion, a position she supported.

Mike

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