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you are very welcome to Keep your Software Advertising and bragging to yourself.
If you really want to add something to this discussion, I suggest you just post unbiased Information on how you think this had shown a full day in advance.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Thank you scalpingtrader for your message
I am not trying to promote our software - it is not for sale
I am not boasting I am seeking to understand why most people were caught out on this change in the market
I was hoping for information, perhaps I'm on the wrong forum
OK, I'll get off this forum as it appears to have rules I am not complying with
I did ask at the beginning that I am new to this and asked to be excused for my naive question.
I also stated that our software is in beta format. We are therefor not trading and did not make several million as we didn't believe our own forecast. I was trying to find out why everyone was taken by surprise when we have all made use of the same raw data
I also stated that our software is not for sale - it is not for sale!
It is difficult to make a forecast for moves triggered by Central Bank decisions. Who is able to forecase at what stage the Chinese Central Bank will allow a reevaluation of the Renminbi? This can happen tomorrow or it can happen in 10 years, and no model will be able to make a forecast.
If your model has forecasted anything, this could mean
-> that the decision to abandon the minimum exchange rate has leaked into the markets a few days earlier (very unlikely)
-> or that your model is erroneous, as it was impossible to predict the move of the SNB
While I agree that the chance their software properly predicted this event was close to nil, would it not have been better to let the man post his example/data then attack before he even had the chance? What would have been the harm to let him make his case, and then pick it apart...?
Forecasting something doesn't mean you can execute it. Some may have saw signs that something was coming, doesn't mean they were able to turn it into something actionable.
He has a commercial website and I've learned that some people lie about their intentions. Unfortunate but true. Besides his original post is frankly just ludicrous
While I know that central banks are not there to cater to speculators, the way they announced it was irresponsible.
This was a surprise in terms of policy and direction, and they could have went about it in a different way:
1) Make the announcement on the weekend allowing the markets to absorb it better and adjust risk if possible (be action ready)
2) Announce an effective date that would take place in 3-6 months.
Like you said, a model does not predict time and place for such a black swan move, capitalizing on it is a mere hindsight that only two mathemticians could get excited over.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
Brokers who went upside down, customers with deficits, largest banks and hedge funds with the best brains were shocked and caught by surprise, but this "genus" had a model that predicted everything.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may lose more than your initial investment. All posts are opinions and do not claim to be facts. Please conduct your own due diligence. Use only Risk capital when trading Futures.
1 800 771 6748 local 561 367 8686 email [email protected]
