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Minimum Exchange Rate for CHF Discontinued
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Minimum Exchange Rate for CHF Discontinued

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Coach View Post
OK, I'm new to this so excuse my naive question. Why was everyone surprised at this change?
I am developing a Forex forecasting system with a colleague and we have the software in beta now. We were running it this week and we were showing some enormous changes relating to CHF.
Being new to this we thought there was a bug with our software and we started to try and trace the fault. The following day the market moved as per our forecast.
If us two amateurs can forecast this with our unproven software what happened to all the sophisticated and mature systems that are currently on the market.
I can provide screen shots of our forecast if that is allowed on this forum?

you are very welcome to Keep your Software Advertising and bragging to yourself.
If you really want to add something to this discussion, I suggest you just post unbiased Information on how you think this had shown a full day in advance.

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  #22 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Thank you scalpingtrader for your message
I am not trying to promote our software - it is not for sale
I am not boasting I am seeking to understand why most people were caught out on this change in the market
I was hoping for information, perhaps I'm on the wrong forum

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  #23 (permalink)
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Coach View Post
Thank you scalpingtrader for your message
I am not trying to promote our software - it is not for sale
I am not boasting I am seeking to understand why most people were caught out on this change in the market
I was hoping for information, perhaps I'm on the wrong forum

Seeing how the rest of the world lost billions, I assume you of course at least made several million since you knew it was coming.

And when you say you don't know why others didn't forecast this, it speaks to either your dishonesty or your lack of experience.

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  #24 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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OK, I'll get off this forum as it appears to have rules I am not complying with

I did ask at the beginning that I am new to this and asked to be excused for my naive question.

I also stated that our software is in beta format. We are therefor not trading and did not make several million as we didn't believe our own forecast. I was trying to find out why everyone was taken by surprise when we have all made use of the same raw data

I also stated that our software is not for sale - it is not for sale!

So why all the hostility I can't understand

Bye

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  #25 (permalink)
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Coach View Post
OK, I'm new to this so excuse my naive question. Why was everyone surprised at this change?
I am developing a Forex forecasting system with a colleague and we have the software in beta now. We were running it this week and we were showing some enormous changes relating to CHF.
Being new to this we thought there was a bug with our software and we started to try and trace the fault. The following day the market moved as per our forecast.
If us two amateurs can forecast this with our unproven software what happened to all the sophisticated and mature systems that are currently on the market.
I can provide screen shots of our forecast if that is allowed on this forum?


It is difficult to make a forecast for moves triggered by Central Bank decisions. Who is able to forecase at what stage the Chinese Central Bank will allow a reevaluation of the Renminbi? This can happen tomorrow or it can happen in 10 years, and no model will be able to make a forecast.

If your model has forecasted anything, this could mean

-> that the decision to abandon the minimum exchange rate has leaked into the markets a few days earlier (very unlikely)
-> or that your model is erroneous, as it was impossible to predict the move of the SNB

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  #26 (permalink)
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While I agree that the chance their software properly predicted this event was close to nil, would it not have been better to let the man post his example/data then attack before he even had the chance? What would have been the harm to let him make his case, and then pick it apart...?

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  #27 (permalink)
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Forecasting something doesn't mean you can execute it. Some may have saw signs that something was coming, doesn't mean they were able to turn it into something actionable.

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  #28 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
While I agree that the chance their software properly predicted this event was close to nil, would it not have been better to let the man post his example/data then attack before he even had the chance? What would have been the harm to let him make his case, and then pick it apart...?

He has a commercial website and I've learned that some people lie about their intentions. Unfortunate but true. Besides his original post is frankly just ludicrous

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  #29 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Forecasting something doesn't mean you can execute it. Some may have saw signs that something was coming, doesn't mean they were able to turn it into something actionable.

While I know that central banks are not there to cater to speculators, the way they announced it was irresponsible.
This was a surprise in terms of policy and direction, and they could have went about it in a different way:
1) Make the announcement on the weekend allowing the markets to absorb it better and adjust risk if possible (be action ready)
2) Announce an effective date that would take place in 3-6 months.

Like you said, a model does not predict time and place for such a black swan move, capitalizing on it is a mere hindsight that only two mathemticians could get excited over.

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Last edited by mattz; January 17th, 2015 at 06:40 PM.
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  #30 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
He has a commercial website and I've learned that some people lie about their intentions. Unfortunate but true. Besides his original post is frankly just ludicrous

Sent from my phone

Brokers who went upside down, customers with deficits, largest banks and hedge funds with the best brains were shocked and caught by surprise, but this "genus" had a model that predicted everything.

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Last edited by mattz; January 17th, 2015 at 06:41 PM.
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