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Why backtests are useless, EAs are flawed and their parameters are bad [DISCUSS]
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Created: by Darwin Attachments:0

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Why backtests are useless, EAs are flawed and their parameters are bad [DISCUSS]

  #11 (permalink)
Lubbock TX
 
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taufikhak View Post
it's good thread guy..
I think so.., using back test is very useless because it gives false signal and false result there..
So, the better is test in real account that have huge leverage...

Excellent way to blow an account.

 
  #12 (permalink)
Regensburg, Germany
 
 
Posts: 9 since Oct 2013
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Yes, and also a live test will only give you a very very small view on your strategy as the market conditions faced within, i dont know, a 3 or 6 month live testing window are very limited

But its of course better than overfitted backtests or something alike

But a good walk forward analysis + some months of live testing should be a good compromise.

-Darwin

 
  #13 (permalink)
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Darwin View Post
Yes, and also a live test will only give you a very very small view on your strategy as the market conditions faced within, i dont know, a 3 or 6 month live testing window are very limited

But its of course better than overfitted backtests or something alike

But a good walk forward analysis + some months of live testing should be a good compromise.

-Darwin

I'm looking froward to more detail of your walk forward analysis. For all the testing I've done, I have not seen any examples where walk forward was of any benefit. So, as I say I look forward to what you present here. I would truly like to see it work.

 
  #14 (permalink)
Regensburg, Germany
 
 
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MWinfrey View Post
I'm looking froward to more detail of your walk forward analysis. For all the testing I've done, I have not seen any examples where walk forward was of any benefit. So, as I say I look forward to what you present here. I would truly like to see it work.

It's not something that works or not, it's just a different approach to analyse an EA

I have written a new article the last days where I try to explain how WFA works and why it is the logical successor of backtesting.

When I am back home on Monday/Tuesday, I will first release this article and then the tool itself a few days after - so stay tuned

-Darwin

 
  #15 (permalink)
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Sounds like this @Darwin guy is going to just end up directing you to his website where he will collect your info in exchange for "giving" you his idea, or he will just flat out sell it and will have used this entire thread as a ruse to market his product.

In 5 years of running the forum, I've never seen anything other than this happen from a thread that started like this, where a user who registers for first time posts such a thing, and spams the same identical messages on multiple message boards simultaneously.

So I am done with this thread. Everything he posted about has already been previously discussed on futures.io (formerly BMT). I am closing this thread.

Mike

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