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7 ways to monetise on the US bankruptcy
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7 ways to monetise on the US bankruptcy

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Melbourne
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: MB Trading, Kinetick
Favorite Futures: Forex, AUD/USD
 
Posts: 14 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 9 given, 6 received

7 ways to monetise on the US bankruptcy

Hi Everyone,

Sorry for the catchy title... couldn't help myself... 7ways are provided at the bottom.

Well, we basically know what's going to happen in the US and I was keen to see how you are planning to cash in on the current events.

I am watching solely the AUD/USD and my take is:
  • AUD has seen a lot of weakness from it's 1.08ish highs (interest rates coming down). Further downside to be expected.
  • The recent price hike back to .95s is imh not driven by AU at all but purely due to weakness of the USD.
Now of course you can argue it all 10 different ways, that's just my base assumption.

Now let's look into the future:
1.) The US will not be bankrupt forever so options are:
- they agree on more funding on time at some stage today/tomorrow.
- they agree in the very near future after that.
2.) Either way the USD is going to quickly re-gain most of the strength it had before.
3.) ...and as such we can expect the AUD to plummet a fair way very soon.

So far, so good.

Now here is the tricky bit - how do you cash in on this precious "knowledge"?
Ideally I'd want to build a nice size position to participate in that move.

Well here they are - 7 ways I see you could cash in:
1.) Plain short the AUD/USD with a small position and a wide stop in the realm of 2 ATR daily.
2.) Pick a likely time when the positive news will come out and wait until such time then enter with a larger position
3.) Simply spread your entries with Limit short orders over say 100 pips and let the market take you into an ok avg price.
4.) Wait for the news and then build a position with the new down move.
5.) Guesstimate a resistance level based on charts, volume etc. and just put a large limit order there.
6.) Combine some of the above.
7.) <Your idea goes here>

Keen to hear other thoughts on the matter!

Cheers,
Frank

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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0.9725


short bellow following 1,2..whatever

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  #4 (permalink)
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I monitor and trade AUD and feel that 0.9550 is an important level (38%) which if breached on daily closing basis, AUD will touch 0.97 provided the AUD and chinese data remains positive and AUD interest rates remain stable at 2.5% at par with NZD. I would be long AUD if it breaches 0.9550 and then look to short it at around 0.97-0.98.
With US debt deal closed, the attention will again focus on QE and talks of tapering although taper is not expected anytime soon. AUD is not a part of USD index and lately does not correlate with USD index. Gold is likely to rise during increased demand during festive seasons in november and AUD will too rise with gold.

Other plays after US closes debt deal are long equities, long treasuries and long eurodollar.

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  #5 (permalink)
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Hmmmm - Bankruptcy averted and no drop of AUD/USD at all...

:yield:

...maybe I should just stick to market profile and leave the bigger pic to economists.

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  #6 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Norwood, PA, USA
 
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Posts: 4 since Oct 2013
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Not sure that matters as a trader...

I find it interesting to look at the government, and the news, and the IMF loans, but not sure I can use that in trading since I mostly am in and out within a few days. Besides, I used to try and trade grains based on news and half the time it looked like a sure bullish or bearish signal, it would do the opposite.

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