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Is this price action nauseating, or what?
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Is this price action nauseating, or what?

  #11 (permalink)
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This truly appears to be a structural change in the markets and not a cyclical one, I'm afraid. Current market reality is that an overwhelming share of trading activity is based on short-run price forecasts rather than fundamental research. Under these conditions, how can one expect prices to track changes in the fundamental values of the income streams to which the assets give title?

Markets have always been based on a shifting balance between information augmenting and information extracting strategies, but the HFT arms race coupled with changes in institutions and regulation seem to have shifted the balance markedly towards the latter. Unless the structure of incentives is altered to favor longer holding periods, I suspect that we shall continue to see low volume and low volatility as any market inefficiencies that exist are quickly gamed by HFTs.

Changes in the perceived volatility and an acknowledged Fed put have given rise to greater risk taking and greater asset allocations by institutional and retail investors, but it has also served to remove not only all the risk from the markets, but all the doubt as to where the market is headed. Who cares what happens in Europe, if the ECB and the Fed are ready willing and able to provide liquidity. So , the market continues to melt up ever so slowly.

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  #12 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Absolutely agreed it's looking more structural if not long term cyclical if there's still room for "hope and change". I was worried about this over a year ago. HFT taking over, movements slowing to a crawl, then sudden HFT spikes but first a stop hunting spike going the other way in a split second. More bars double spiked in what Al Brooks calls "barb wire". And then no matter what Cramer says, more news driven markets and short term psychological pulses than anything fundamental.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQed-Aqay5w

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwwR_sWFucI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDwbmwk677I
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQN0LXRUoPY


Last edited by Cloudy; September 23rd, 2012 at 09:46 PM.
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  #13 (permalink)
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At this point in time it may be more befitting to refer to the Bernank Put as the Bernank Experiment. This is an act of desperation by the Fed to create growth at any cost. Goldman is still forecasting SP at 1200 by end of year/early next year.

As for the nature of the HFT. About a year and a half ago when it started taking over the crude market I began to notice that ever month or two the nature of the volatility would morph into something I had never seen before. And it has continued on this way. Just as soon as you get used to one playbook, it changes. I have learned to expect anything and to be very flexible in my trading.


tigertrader View Post
This truly appears to be a structural change in the markets and not a cyclical one, I'm afraid. Current market reality is that an overwhelming share of trading activity is based on short-run price forecasts rather than fundamental research. Under these conditions, how can one expect prices to track changes in the fundamental values of the income streams to which the assets give title?

Markets have always been based on a shifting balance between information augmenting and information extracting strategies, but the HFT arms race coupled with changes in institutions and regulation seem to have shifted the balance markedly towards the latter. Unless the structure of incentives is altered to favor longer holding periods, I suspect that we shall continue to see low volume and low volatility as any market inefficiencies that exist are quickly gamed by HFTs.

Changes in the perceived volatility and an acknowledged Fed put have given rise to greater risk taking and greater asset allocations by institutional and retail investors, but it has also served to remove not only all the risk from the markets, but all the doubt as to where the market is headed. Who cares what happens in Europe, if the ECB and the Fed are ready willing and able to provide liquidity. So , the market continues to melt up ever so slowly.


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  #14 (permalink)
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
 
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More Credit as a Solution ?

Pardon me .... but offering low interest rates (i.e. borrowing) at this point seems a bit like offering a chili dog to a person that has just spent 3 days throwing-up from the last one they ate.

Peace,
Paige

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  #15 (permalink)
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Are the markets dying?

Rantings on Markets, Economics and Business Strategy (Sept 23 blog entry)



Quoting 
A reminder. I have remarked quite a few times over the years that the U.S. stock markets could go away. Forever. I'm sure most people don't really believe that is possible but every institution of the ego or institution of man eventually fails and disappears. The stock market that exists today serves little purpose other than to loot society as I have noted countless times on here. You know, by those take-charge, personally-responsible kleptocrats like [redacted]y's friends in finance and private equity. In one of my next few posts we'll take an updated view at the possible coming disappearance of U.S. equity markets.


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  #16 (permalink)
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syxforex View Post
At this point in time it may be more befitting to refer to the Bernank Put as the Bernank Experiment. This is an act of desperation by the Fed to create growth at any cost. Goldman is still forecasting SP at 1200 by end of year/early next year.

As for the nature of the HFT. About a year and a half ago when it started taking over the crude market I began to notice that ever month or two the nature of the volatility would morph into something I had never seen before. And it has continued on this way. Just as soon as you get used to one playbook, it changes. I have learned to expect anything and to be very flexible in my trading.

Goldman's obviously stuck short, in a big way, if they keep insisting the market is no good...

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  #17 (permalink)
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Goldman is a market maker, they are never stuck one way... they never lose


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Goldman's obviously stuck short, in a big way, if they keep insisting the market is no good...


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  #18 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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syxforex View Post
Goldman is a market maker, they are never stuck one way... they never lose

they wish that was true

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  #19 (permalink)
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They can make it true, with one volatility swap crossed with a risk reversal against a fabricated counter party.. the beauty of derivatives accounting and no regulation...

unlimited risk parameters backed by the US taxpayer also helps...


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they wish that was true


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  #20 (permalink)
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syxforex View Post
They can make it true, with one volatility swap crossed with a risk reversal against a fabricated counter party.. the beauty of derivatives accounting and no regulation...

unlimited risk parameters backed by the US taxpayer also helps...

tell that to Jaimie Dimon and J.P....ey!

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