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When will Greece leave the Euro?
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When will Greece leave the Euro?

  #1 (permalink)
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When will Greece leave the Euro?

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  #3 (permalink)
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my take:
june 17- i will go short when the greek vote.
i expect a market crash worldwide. minus 50 or 100 points es.
then i expect all major central banks to print huge amounts of money in a concerted action. ecb will inject into spanish banks. in the long run the debt will increase(stupid money does not turn into smart money overnight)
markets will rally. we will see hyperinflation in the next years as a result.
if the greeks say yes, the eu will take over their administration.
if they say no, the grexit will become effective this year.
the euro will rally in my opinion.

what happens in the unlikely event that ecb will announce an injection into spanish banks before june 17 or central banks worldwide will flood markets before june 17? obvious

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Pretty clear...

that the June elections will determine the future for Greek participation in the monetary union. I imagine that if the right minded party gains political control that preparations for Greece to leave the union will begin the following day June 18th. Is "leave" and being forced out the same thing Mike?

I have been reading some of the European press on this issue, one article of which I posted toady in my "journal" thread. I reccomend that folks add some of the European press, financial and political outlets to their weekend preparation.

Just a guess and anecdotal at best, I will say that the pro bailout party will win the election and that Greece will TRY to stay in the union. I think the more likely scenario is that other nations will require or mandate certain items and that Greece will choose not or systemically fail to comply.

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I personally think that the whole crisis has been engineered to bring individual sovereign nations of europe to their knees.
Throw cheap money at them that they have no hope of paying back, force them into austerity. (provides cheap labour) Make them sell off utilities and other national interests to foreign corporations and banks. (This has been done to third world countries for years.)
Finally move in and take control of all finance decisions and remove any last pretence of them being independent nations.
All in all a cost effective way of empire building without a shot being fired.

No- one will be leaving europe.

What about that for a conspiracy theory

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Maybe they won't

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when this happen? 9GAG - When Merkel knows that Germany will play against Greece

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Poll closed, results:

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Mike

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  #9 (permalink)
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Might Germany decide to leave first?

There are numerous technical problems in a weak country like Greece leaving (capital controls, border controls, etc. because Greeks would seek to hold on to their Euros instead of switching into whatever new national currency (that will get devalued) is issued (DrachmaII). If Germany left, German citizens would be happy to get rid of their euros, as their new national currency would go up in value. For historic reasons, however, Germany doesn't want to be the party-pooper -- but that will only last so long.

I guess it's a question of who will blink first...

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now


it was delayed only for one month.
now greece is out because germany and imf will no longer fill the hole that gets bigger and bigger every day:

Euro-Krise: Merkel und Schäuble verlieren Geduld mit Griechenland - SPIEGEL ONLINE

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