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When will Greece leave the Euro?
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When will Greece leave the Euro?

  #11 (permalink)
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Reviving this old thread because Greece is returning to the limelight recently.

When will Greece leave the Eurozone?

Total votes: 621
 


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  #12 (permalink)
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Run Greece, run...

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ELA running out


Without a new application for EU/ECB/IMF money by 16th of February
and renewed covenants, Greece virtually will be out of EMU
as soon as the 60b of Emergency Liquidity Assistance of the ECB run out.
From then on, you can count down to the default of Greece in days.

But I still can't believe that the Greeks will take a chance on cleaning their
legendary Augean stables on their own ...

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wow:
Never 43% (64 votes) -> well - hold on to your undies


can you add an option "will leave,but don't know when"

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Greece can NOT easily turn away from the Euro:

1) as a export country mainly to EC countries they need a stable currency
2) to pay back all (?) debts they can only do it within a strong currency supporting them (not only printing own money)
3) the important tourist sector for Greece is primordial and needs to have a currency the visitors believe in

To make it short - Greece can never get out of the EURO easily

GFIs1

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puma View Post
can you add an option "will leave,but don't know when"

If you don't think it will be the next two years, select "after 2017".

Mike

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Big Mike View Post
If you don't think it will be the next two years, select "after 2017".

Mike

right, I overlooked "after 2017"

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GFIs1 View Post
Greece...

GFIs1

I can not agree here,Sir !


Quoting 
1) as a export country mainly to EC countries they need a stable currency

If you produce at the fringes & export to the core -> a weaker currency is extremely beneficial
(see Poland. CzechRep, ...)
Hence no Euro = better for greek citizens


Quoting 
2) to pay back all (?) debts they can only do it within a strong currency supporting them (not only printing own money)

A) the "strong currency" Euro was the reason that inflated greek's debt in the first place.
B) they can not pay back debt/ they will default more ( as they already did. (insert haircut euphemism here)
this default will happen, with or without euro.


Quoting 
3) the important tourist sector for Greece is primordial and needs to have a currency the visitors believe in

like "1" > a weaker currency is extremely beneficial for tourism sector.
(see some of the Balkan states. btw should they join - will be doomed like Greece)

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puma View Post
wow:
Never 43% (64 votes) -> well - hold on to your undies


can you add an option "will leave,but don't know when"

That poll is exactly why most traders fail. When the herd is one way smart money is going the other. The house always wins.

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  #20 (permalink)
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@Wikmar

I am replying here to your post, because I dont know if they want this in the SP500 thread.


Quoting 
But if we came back to early 2000's we would find a german relaxed point of view about economic orthodoxy and how to break some rules. From then to now, some other things can be said, for example (2011 - 2012) in what a pecualiar way, in a very difficult moment for the euro and the finances of the euro countries, Merkel (Germany) took special cares for about one year, to maintain an important differential country-risk among Germany and Spain and Italy, so fearful money, the most then, were to Germany and not to us, with its correspondent extra costs for us. And some other issues.

That said, I want to clarify that I'm not an advocate of the way we do things around here, in fact, my dream is get out (what is so difficult for me) looking other values in a society. But facts are as they are, and sometimes it is convenient to put it clear.

Also that said, I want to say, abusing kindly of @tigertrader and of the audience of the thread, that I very much like to hear those things if it's what you think / feel, and not to silence them.

Warm greetings, brother. Regards to all.

I can sum-up my point as: "Europe needs to get out of the Euro for Europe's sake."

There was a Europe before 2000 (before the Euro).
There was a common market, harmonized/low trade barriers.
There was peaceful collaboration.

Now, with & because of the EURO you have 50%+ youth unemployment in Spain/Italy/Greece
besides many other ills.
That is mental! They have every right to burn down the house - and they will.

A common currency forces common tax/fiscal system (meaning: shared debt under the same tax laws).
There is NO popular majority for this - anywhere in Europe (all (of the few allowed) ballots showed this).
One can summarize the EU policies of the last 3 years as salami tactics to sneak this shared debt in - via
backdoors & misnaming.

A common currency forces common economic policies. "One ring to rule them all ".
The ultimate central planing. The EUDSSR.

Of course this totally ignores any local unique characteristics:
e.g strong family business structure in Italy
or the deep rooted mistrust for government in Greece - probably going back to the conflict with Turkey or the 70ies

Dont think for a second, the economic malaise is your counties fault. Be proud of your nation (or local state).


Quoting 
...my dream is get out ...

This makes me -want to punch a Eurocrat - I dont see one right now.

If you look at a high resolution map of per capita productivity in Europe,you will see,
that Germany is incapable to lift its own underdeveloped east
- this situation persists for 25 years !

Europe needs to get out of the Euro for Europe's sake.

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