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What is luck and what is skill?
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What is luck and what is skill?

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Vancouver, Canada
 
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What is luck and what is skill?

I've been demo trading on Oanda MT4 for the past 2 weeks or so just to get a feel of their system and see if I like forex (If I actually do trade forex, I want to go with a ECN but the broker I have in mind is quite hefty for a beginner, and from what I read, capital requirements shouldn't be what beginners are looking to commit).

I've been just focusing on the EUR/USD and trading with volume = 3 (I'm assuming it's 3 lots) at a time on a 10K base account (which I feel is fair). I scalped a bit on the Thursday/Friday but I was mostly getting things onto the charts and looking at levels and lines and just making some mental backtesting.

I made some huge bets (I was left with 2k free margin) on Monday and rode the Euro up (made a profit of 1.7K) and rode it down in the afternoon (for another profit of 1.4K), at that point... I went into a short position and didn't do anything, I didn't set any stops or take profits and simply looked at what kind of losses and profits I'd be looking at. Over the next 24 hours or so, I'd see swings of 1k profits to 1k losses - now I know that some say that the problem with demo accounts is this reason exactly, but I'm pretty realistic and know how I would react under these situations because I invest in equities as well, so the 'money being in the market' feeling is not new.

My question is: in regards to the 1k profits swings, if I wasn't greedy and just took profits that I was happy with, say 5% (500 out of 10k) and just waited out the bad trades, it seems like you can't lose trading Forex? if you can take 5% profits every 8~ hours, that's pretty damn amazing (after all, you'd slowly just increase your lot sizes).

As long as you have enough capital so that you can tank large pip moves, you can make pretty big bets and end out okay - simply put, the EUR/USD is not going to drop below 1.2 and it's not going to rise about 1.4 without any major changes. But riding on things like spain bond auctions and employment data seems pretty profitable

Am I making a common mistake for beginners here? Am I risking wayy to much in a trade?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Here is the difference between luck and skill:

You made a nice gain on Monday. Luck
You Kept it until market close on Friday. Skill

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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  #4 (permalink)
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one of my poker pro buddies always told me that he created his own luck.. is a nice saying and was stated well for the conversations we were having, but there is a deeper science to what he was talking about..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #5 (permalink)
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madLyfe View Post
one of my poker pro buddies always told me that he created his own luck.. is a nice saying and was stated well for the conversations we were having, but there is a deeper science to what he was talking about..

Hahaa, yeah, I kind believe in that as well, this is getting all philosophical now

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  #6 (permalink)
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madLyfe View Post
one of my poker pro buddies always told me that he created his own luck.. is a nice saying and was stated well for the conversations we were having, but there is a deeper science to what he was talking about..

The problem with saying you created your own luck is that, in my mind, it's still cheapening your accomplishments. If you created your own luck through study, hard work, and dedication... thus giving you the opportunity to be "lucky," you deserve more credit than vaguely saying "you created it."

I agree though, it's sort of a deeper thing than just saying "I'm lucky."

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  #7 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
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When you know exactly why you win, it's skill.
When you don't, it's luck.

Go .

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #8 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
When you know exactly why you win, it's skill.
When you don't, it's luck.

Go .

Okay, this I like A LOT. Well said!

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  #9 (permalink)
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Just remember this. The illusion of luck is what the Casinos rely on to take all your money.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #10 (permalink)
Truth Seeker
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quotes


Some quotes... as I am not experienced I could post that...


Luck is the residue of design. - John Milton

I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it. - Thomas Jefferson

All things require skill, but an appetite. - George Herbert

" He who can love can be; he who can be can do; he who can do is. "
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