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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro


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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

  #2011 (permalink)
 
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 josh 
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tigertrader View Post
strong bearish seasonal tendency from the 3rd trading day of Jan. thru the first week of Feb.

@tigertrader

Seasonality is interesting to me because it seems like a powerful tool. However, just as you have mentioned that intermarket correlations are great until they don't work anymore, seasonality only isolates a few variables (like weather to some degree, holidays, fund flows, etc), but it does not take into consideration geopolitical and current context, let alone other factors. Clearly you do not feel it's something to blindly follow, but isn't a bearish January for the Euro based on the last 14 years as (ir)relevant as the relationship between stocks and bonds during a certain time period, etc.? If I could ask it this way: how much weight do you put into seasonality, as an actual support decision tool? If you had convincing reasons to be bullish Euro, and the past data of bearish seasonality conflicted with it, what would you do?

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  #2012 (permalink)
 
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 tigertrader 
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josh View Post
@tigertrader

Seasonality is interesting to me because it seems like a powerful tool. However, just as you have mentioned that intermarket correlations are great until they don't work anymore, seasonality only isolates a few variables (like weather to some degree, holidays, fund flows, etc), but it does not take into consideration geopolitical and current context, let alone other factors. Clearly you do not feel it's something to blindly follow, but isn't a bearish January for the Euro based on the last 14 years as (ir)relevant as the relationship between stocks and bonds during a certain time period, etc.? If I could ask it this way: how much weight do you put into seasonality, as an actual support decision tool? If you had convincing reasons to be bullish Euro, and the past data of bearish seasonality conflicted with it, what would you do?

Theory suggests this seasonality has worked in the past due to the fact that multinational corporations based in the US repatriate funds after the New Year, and this has a tendency to depress prices, which definitely puts it into the "funds flow" category. So the question is flow oriented or value oriented. Let price action be your arbiter.

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  #2013 (permalink)
 
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 kbit 
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Anybody trading Euro anymore....I had a decent trade monday, and looking to maybe jump in a little more.

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  #2014 (permalink)
 Luger 
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I have been tinkering with some trades in 6E. Picked up some longs on the dump today, sold half 1.3693, still holding half with targets at 1.3708 and 1.3731 for the runner. Moving my stop in tight so I lock my current gains, if it is going to hit my targets, the move needs to happen fairly quick (Upward resumption in the next couple hours). A move below 1.3675 +/- a few pips would invalidate the type trade I am doing as it would likely spend significantly more time near the lows or potentially fail.

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  #2015 (permalink)
 
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 Devil Man 
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kbit View Post
Anybody trading Euro anymore....I had a decent trade monday, and looking to maybe jump in a little more.

kbit check out @wldman thread on trading 6E


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  #2016 (permalink)
 
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 kbit 
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I've had a small short on all day looking for 3854....might get there next week at the rate it's going.

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  #2017 (permalink)
 
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 kbit 
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Thinking we're going back up now. 3833 looking like bottom.
want to see 3874 then 3914 then 3994 ....beyond that ?

I know it may be early to say we're going up but that's what I'm seeing at the moment, I'll be watching those numbers.

Edit: very short term like to see 3858 hold.

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  #2018 (permalink)
 
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 kbit 
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kbit View Post
Thinking we're going back up now. 3833 looking like bottom.
want to see 3874 then 3914 then 3994 ....beyond that ?

I know it may be early to say we're going up but that's what I'm seeing at the moment, I'll be watching those numbers.

Edit: very short term like to see 3858 hold.

Looking good....has to stay above 3874 at this point.

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  #2019 (permalink)
 
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 kbit 
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Stopped out on way back to 3914 on original trade (gave back maybe more than I should have but wasn't around to watch it)...back in at 3859 (with tight stop) looking for at least 3983.

will come up with new plan after that...could be a short, depends on what happens at 3983....providing it gets there that is.

If stopped on this will step back and reconsider.

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  #2020 (permalink)
 
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 kbit 
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kbit View Post
Stopped out on way back to 3914 on original trade (gave back maybe more than I should have but wasn't around to watch it)...back in at 3859 (with tight stop) looking for at least 3983.

will come up with new plan after that...could be a short, depends on what happens at 3983....providing it gets there that is.

If stopped on this will step back and reconsider.

Oops...I mistyped, I meant 3883 not 3983.
Anyway it made it to 3883 and is playing yoyo around it. I'm going to wait a bit and see what happens from here, more specifically see if it goes to 3900 or through 3859 down to 3832

I reread this and am pretty sure I got the numbers right this time.

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