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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro


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EURUSD M6E/6E Euro

  #1991 (permalink)
 
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 Adamus 
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Copied from my journal: I don't like the so-called fundamental reasons in the newswires about the drop today. The Cyprus bail-out with the so-called "dangerous" theft of 6% off everyone's bank accounts is not going to lead to contagion of the crisis and runs on banks. It's a fait accomplis and it's a one-off. You think they'd do that in Greece, Spain or Italy? So fundamentally I think there is a good reason to be bullish because that 150 point gap is just volatility.


Also technically on the monthly and weekly charts, it looks like there's just a lot of air underneath it right now. If you look closer than that though, it just looks messy. A good reward:risk for a short. Would be even better though if I could identify a pull-back for a short.

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  #1992 (permalink)
 
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 Big Mike 
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Peter Schiff is always playing the doomsday card. While I think things are terrible, and the recent highs in the market don't translate (ie: printing), I can't subscribe to the extremist position that Peter always takes.

I wonder if he is Tyler Durden @ ZH?

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  #1993 (permalink)
 
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Can't deny that the fundamental security of a fiat currency is whether the people who hold the currency believe in it or not.

But I don't even think the Cyprus bail-out was a mistake, I think it was a cynical raid on the tax-dodging Russian millionaires. We'll see though. If the Russians come and clear their laundered money out and Cyprus collapses anyway, then yes it was a mistake but I still don't think it will affect the other countries.

What it does mean though is that the Euro should fall further if it drops on half-bad news like this.

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  #1994 (permalink)
 
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Cyprus, Seriously - NYTimes.com

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  #1995 (permalink)
 
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That's the plan - austerity if you want to stay in the Euro, which they do, so that the rest of their deposits don't devalue with a new currency. Some depositors there - pensioners etc, not just Russians - have already lost about half, they'll cling on to the rest for dear life. I don't believe that Germany (who basically control what happens) will let Cyprus (or Greece) go into a decade long depression. The bankrupt countries have to show that they have purged themselves, and then I assume the rescue investment will come - like the Marshall Plan that got Germany on its feet when all they had was rubble and devastation at the end of WWII.

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  #1996 (permalink)
 
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Source: Eurozone crisis: three-and-a-half years of pain - interactive timeline | Business | guardian.co.uk

(interactive at source)



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  #1997 (permalink)
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I also think the doomsday is not close but remember that "it comes as a thief in the night".

The fundamental issues of the "moral hazard" of bailing out private corps with tax money and stealing deposits will end in tears. Nature always takes care of this sort of stuff...

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  #1998 (permalink)
 
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I rarely pay attention to fib levels or retracements, however I decided to add a it to this chart. My levels come mostly from profiles(gold and grey lines), but I wanted to see how much we had retraced and saw this convergence of fib levels and profile levels. I see a PB to the 3000 level (23.6%) before making a go at the 3250 level (50%).



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  #1999 (permalink)
 
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The PB to the ~3000 took a lot longer than I anticipated. As long as we stay above ~3120, I think we are poised to make a run at ~3250, but first we need to find acceptance up here. If we don't find acceptance up here, I see us falling back into this month long balance zone. We got plenty of news coming up this week to nudge us one way or another. The 4hr chart is what I use mainly to get my bigger picture.

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  #2000 (permalink)
 
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Today was the first time I have seen the big boys "puke". Aggressive market orders of 10+ contracts were selling pretty hard(colored delta bars), but price held steady. As soon as price crossed the VWAP/SR/PP convergence they all "puked". Have been watching this for 3-4 months and have yet to see that happen before. Seen the smaller prints do it all the time, just not the bigger ones.


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