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Wasn't the dollar supposed to be dead already? With the US running whatever amount of debt it is currently running... why are the Treasuries long term not breaking down? Why is someone not asking the contrarian questions?
Am I just the stupid one that don't get it? I must be
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Because the dollar index is weighted around 58% toward the euro, and Europe is more screwed up than the US is right now, so euro going down and the dollar index going up.
Another interesting thing is the ES and DX correlation. I always thought that when dollar went up, indices typically moved lower, since they are priced in dollars. But this year we have the dollar moving higher and indices moving higher...
Vegas, sorry bud, my post was a thinly veiled attempt at sarcasm that should be been recognizable by the comment about Treasuries not breaking down.
The sarcasm is directed at two things - one is the fragility of Inter market analysis and the 2nd was the circuitous, endless and ultimately ineffectual debate about what is affecting the market currently and what was coming afterwards (something that never seems to blow over in forums, TV channels et al)
For best bang for buck analysis and trading, I find it too demanding to partake in such endeavors. These discussions are often incomplete. As people like myself tend to have poor information, incomplete context and often gloss over the historical evidence of how capital behaves in times of uncertainty and credit contraction.
Capital flows in my quite possibly flawed contention are flowing towards not only safer assets and also what some perceive to be best value. Which maybe both return on money as well as return of money.
Furthermore, I would also contend that price of the USD, TNotes is already (and has been) reflecting both of the above since the initial capital jolt of 2008. This could immediately lead one to some recognition of the concept that the Eurozone is hardly the biggest problem with the world. And there are bigger elephants in the room.
The only problem with that is, perhaps it implies that at some point the opposite will happen , I think the implications of $ and markets going down in unison are not good , though I am not an economist by any means
I don't even remember how to track or think in terms of foreign money flows, but it seems like the bond bubble is based on fear in europe , if the fear subsides there will be no buyers in bernanke's bond mart
seems like a catch 22 - no ? they need the fear to kick the can and keep this old tug afloat I guess that is why they have all been less than enthusiastic to pull the lever and see what happens , pretty dangerous game
I guess that is also why they perhaps are trying to detour money from gold and oil etc... because the hope is that it will flow out of bonds and into equities --- hmmm they better hope they are right or things are coming to an end much sooner than anyone thinks including me... am I missing something?
Add: and now that I think about it, with the fed buying endlessly and holding all that worthless paper from the housing debacle, still holding who knows how much equities they have purchased , buying euro's
Bernanke makes Corzine look like a kid who stole candy....
sorry if off topic... just thinking out loud ...tough to bet against em, but just as tough to believe they have a clue as to what they are doing
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
Observations: I see a ugly head and shoulders pattern. A flag/pennant pattern.
Recent bounce off support could propel it to 1.24 where it will hit minor resistance. If it stays within the flag pattern the range could get very tight before it breaks out.
Edit: the flag might actually be a wedge.. I always get them confused. To me it is just a triangle!
Inverse Head and Shoulder on the weekly chart of the dollar is still intact in my opinion, a push higher is to be expected... Which means also that markets will fall :-)
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
