Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
How does your strategy account for unprecedented soverign risk in the Eurozone at present? Greek elections on the weekend, spanish yields etc
EDIT: I re-read your post again to see if I could make any sense of it but I am going to call shenanigans on this. First of all the situation in Europe is so volatile, so out of the ordinary, that I don't see how any multi-year cycle could possibly be a valid trade signal at this present time.
Second of all I am looking at the monthly chart for the Euro and I can't see anything like what you are saying. I see a downtrend for the past 5 years with clear Lower Highs and Lower Lows - see chart below. There is big support level coming up at 1.16xx. Surely you are not suggesting that folks keeping buying lows with a potential 1000pip drawdown?
-------------
Fundamentals are ALREADY 'cooked' into any market. It is a chicken or egg question; for me, the question(s) are moot.
That written; I do NOT think about it--not 'try not to think about it'--I simply don't. I do not follow politics nor current events to an unusually large degree. No t.v. in my houses nor radio nor do I discuss politics. No offense intended. I realize this is absolutely quite odd; I get it.
This may come off as cocky or arrogant (assuredly it is not); my work is based on a high level of accuracy and having tracked over 1,700+ swingtrades in my career {27+ years full time} in Indices, Interest Rates, Metals, Currencies, Grains, Softs, Energies & International Markets & Sectors I confirm after the 1st several days or so whether my anticipated
a) short-term swing trades
b) longer-term campaign trades
c) Macro-term long-term multi-month to several fiscal quarter trades
swingtrades are on the right track.
How? Continued price action based on my cycle work AFTER my entry. I always use a mental stop(s) that I honor as if my next breath depended on it in case I am wrong. Yes; I am wrong a minority--a small minority of the time. That is trading, probability & statistics and position sizing are all my best friends!
Frequently, once I have confirmed continuing price action after entry with further analysis I then begin to focus a bit more on shorter-term scaling in and out and then back in again (@shorter-term profit targets and then waiting for another favorable entry on pullbacks within the 'now defined' trend) several times and at least 50% of the time with options strategies to augment my 'base'/core position.
I apologize if I am a trader that is unaware of 'news' or fundamentals. Incredulous at it sounds, I am unaware of day to day news announcements (except for my intraday trading and then only if it is a major monthly report such as NFP or EIA on the weekly report schedule, or PPI/CPI/GDP--a grand total of about 5 reports). Again, this is ONLY for intraday trading. I don't interpret the numbers.
This is contrarian in nature, I am a contrarian by nature--so it works for me. This was an excellent question. In my humble opinion NONE of the fundamentals mean anything; they are randomly controlled and adjusted and leaked and cooked and ???? in so many various and nefarious ways that it is utter f*ckery.
As long as price and volume move the markets (controlled by human emotions and behaviors); I am good with that. Even HFT doesn't worry me in the slightest. Until we are complete 'Terminator Robots' and humans are not allowed 'free will' to make a buy or sell decision, I have no worries.
It is a MONTHLY cycle low and a WEEKLY cycle low (certainly not a quarterly/bi-annual/yearly or multi-yearly cycle). I will write again that I am looking for a multi-month 'stair-step' up rally in 6E. It is my trading view (plan) that the low is in (recent daily swing low on June 2nd).
My 'base'/core position was established from 1.2340 up to 1.2395 (66% of my size). The remainder is avg. price entry of 1.2467 (33% size). My risk:reward on this trade is approximately from 1:3 up to 1:9 Those are sufficient for me in my trading plan.
I use esoteric analysis quite a bit for these 'campaign' trades. It takes work to triangulate a low/high w/in 1 day in what seems like a sea of randomness and uncertainty. I closely follow the teachings of men before me; notably, Myles Wilson Walker, Bradley Cowan, Gann, Lars von Thienen & Jim Hurst {should be obvious by now}.
For precisely this reason I rarely post about my longer-term/mid-term swingtrades. People get a bit emotional. Ahh--that is part of the analysis (hint, hint).
Finally, it is NOT necessary to use my approach to identify swing highs and lows within non-linear cycles. I will be showing @GaryD a simple swingtrading method he can use later this fall that is at least 75%+ accurate using nothing but indicators he has in Ninjatrader; I think he'll be tickled. However, I'll let him write about it here if he wants to--he is kind of a prolific journaler.
Regardless, I have to get back to trading. Thanks for the questions again.
Due to the extreme volatility some market analysts foresee could result in the coming days, OANDA fxTrade will not accept any trading activity from 6:00 AM EST until approximately 3:00 PM EST, on Sunday, June 17, 2012. …
