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I'm showing it stuck under this line. Notice the line above it, couldn't close below it until Friday. You would think it has to retest it at some point, but I really have no idea when that could be.
I am sleeping during the night. But with a dose of hindsight knowledge this is what can be seen:
After the gap down there was a climax bar, which had been noticed by @Cashish.
(1) The Climax bar shows just where the stops were located. Retail traders had carefully selected the 1.3000 level for hiding their stops. This triggered a rapid selling reinforced by predators, who then bought back their position 20 to 30 pips lower.
(2) The new low was tested 20 min laters, collecting the stops of the early longs. This is a 2B pattern knwon to be profitable. If you had entered a long position at the high of the reversal bar you would have been filled around 1.2976, level indicated in one of the posts above. However, after the violent gap down, it was still too early to enter long, as shown by the trendfilters on the lower panel (zeroline & histogram).
(3) There was even an opportunity to short the VWAP.
(4) The downtrend levels out, the oscillator moves into positive territory. However, price is still below VWAP, would not take a long position against the VWAP, rather want to have that beast in my back for supprot.
(5) After an ascending triangle, price closes above VWAP for the first time during this session. This is a long setup at 1.2987.
(6) The first exit is at the second upper standard deviation band, which was at 1.3019.
(7) Retracement Entry at the high of the pin bar at 1.3007.
(8) The second opportunity to exit came, when the second standard deviation band was hit again and the high of the day was taken out simultaneously at 1.3037.
Conclusion: The climax bar (1) showed that the stops had been hit, but was not yet sign of an exhaustion of the downtrend. The following reversal bar (2) showed the lack of sellers at this stage. After all this was the Asian session, and the market now entered the Asian box know as the boring bit of the day. For the rest of the Asian session the market moved sideways, creating a base for a subsequent breakout. During the formation of that base, the prior trend was neutralized. The momentum oscillator moved into positive territory, as momentum (1st derivative of price) flattened out and change of momentum (2nd derivative of price) was positive.
The trigger for the long trade(5) came just prior to the London session. During the London session the price remained above the VWAP. A retracment to the VWAP (7) could have been used for a reentry or adding to the position. Exits at the 2SD band (6) and (8).
Yes, you caught me with my hand in the cookie jar. I got long in the "Asian box" and forgive me, Oh Code Writing One, under the VWAP. When price finished "chewing it's tail" and began to flatten out I got long. I was OK with the risk on the trade and just hung on. To add to the craziness of this EU session was the UK Bank Holiday, I figured enthusiasm would be subdued. Lastly, when price finally started to move to test the high it was the exact same time the Factory Orders Data was about to be released in Germany, I wanted to be flat by 6am est. Of course the numbers were GREAT and I watched another 20 ticks come and go. Nice chart by the way.
@monpere I really didn't plan on posting my trade, but when Fat Tails said, "I think you will easily find somebody on the other side of your trade, if you wish to go long today" I thought he had thrown down the gauntlet.
