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- An overnight retracement back towards 3100.
- If 3100 holds, a move back to Monday high around 3150 and then to 3200 if buyers come in strong.
- If 3100 breaks, move to 3075 for sure, followed by 3025 area.
- Depending on day range, if we see bearish day then 2980 to 2970 are definitely areas of interest. Not sure we will get there, depends on daily volatility.
I was surprised by the quick move upward on the Euro today. I still believe the short looks like the better trade so long as we don't make a HH above 3218 followed by HL above 3140. If we do see this HH+HL and see strong buyers at 3150 then a move to 3300 depending on the day's range and volatility/news. And I will have been stopped out.
- Looking for this wedge to breakdown immediately
- Looking for yet another test of 3100
- Looking for breakdown below 3100, quickly moving to 3075 and then 3030 or so
- Next area of interest is around 2980-3010
- Followed by 2950 if the daily range supports it
From a profile point of view, you can see some confluence with these numbers. They are combination of price S/R and profile VA and POC levels.
Now, should I be wrong on my bearish sentiment, then we should see a break above 3180 met with enthusiastic buyers, quickly propelling price above 3220. I will be stopped should this happen.
That felt like more than a normal retrace to me. It blew out my magic triangle... I would like to see it get back below 1.3126 on the hourly for a short and ideally make a new low on the 4 hr by tagging the 5ema low. When it rolls like that I like to see that tag first.
Forex not futures...
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
Thanks for your analysis Mike. The euro is building up a lot of trades at the bottom of what looks to me to be a longer term trading range between 1.3000 and 1.3500. The big volume node (between 1.3000 and 1.3200) seems to me to be a basing area for a test of the high of this bigger range (1.3 to 1.35). Of course these are just my impressions from the sidelines and you know what they say about everyone having opinions.
I did want to bring everyone's attention to a symposium that happened this last weekend in Berlin hosted by the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). Their website has a lot of recorded content and some of the talks were truly interesting. There was a lot of talk about the dissolution of the Euro and ECB as well as potential courses of action for the leaders. The initial panel was interesting - George Soros gave an initial 30m talk and two economists responded. The link for recordings of the first day is here:
The talk I'm referring to is the 1st after the intro to the conference. Lots more on that site if you have the time/interest. I found the first talk interesting in terms of the timing of a potential dissolution of the Euro.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
I work for an entry with 123RH.
For the rest you see.
I work with the 4 hours pivot points also.
We are now above the 4 hours PP en under the daily.
We have a consolidation now. It can go to the north or the south.
.
Questions shoot. I'n gonna to try answer. My English is not so good.
I'm still a beginner.
I would like to see it get back below 1.3126 on the hourly for a short and ideally make a new low on the 4 hr by tagging the 5ema low. When it rolls like that I like to see that tag first.